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Hand Discussion #14: My Thoughts

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A couple of days ago I posted an interesting hand from the message board.

The hand was played by our own threads13, and here’s how it went:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($50)
Button ($21.35)
SB ($105.05)
BB ($71.60)
Hero ($58.25)
MP ($44.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J :diamond: , J :club: .
Hero raises to $1.5, MP calls $1.50, 1 fold, Button calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($5.25) 5 :heart: , T :heart: , K :club: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.5, Button folds, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($10.25) Q :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2.

River: ($14.25) 5 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $6, Hero…?

I have a few thoughts.

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5 Responses to “Hand Discussion #14: My Thoughts”

@ Tue Nov 25, 2008 09:47:23 AM

Sorry for my English !

I have a question to the line turn checkraise / river barrel.

If the opponent calls the raise,
what should be the bet sizes in the different scenarios :

1) The river completes the flush
2) The river is a Jack
3) A Blank river card.

@ Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:55:24 AM

Hello “poker authority” :) . Your thought about this are interesting. Just because they are based on maths in general and bet sizes specifically.
However, i want to expose you my point of view:

The preflop play is good. Maybe if you raised 4BB preflop the speculative hands would fold. With a 3BB preflop raise is more likely to your opponents to enter the pot.

While the preflop play is not so questionable…because there are many ways to play it and a lot of them are decent ways…the flop play is a little bad, on my opinion of course. That’s because counting that an unpaired hand will flop one of his hand cards only a 34% of the time…a continue bet is a good option, if you check and your opponent bets, the best option may be raise him. I’ll explain; When you do the continue bet, its possible that your opponent folds, then you have protected your hand. If he calls you can expect a king or a flush draw from him most of the times, so if the turn were a non-dangerous card, you can do the second barrel relatively safe. If your opponent raises, you can think that he’s trying to steal you and call…doing the second barrel on turn (if your opponent doesn’t fold, you’re beat). On the other hand, you can expect what he has when he raises the flop by looking at his stats.

Finally, the turn was horrible when your opponent bet $2 in a $11 pot and you just called. A good way to estimate if you’re ahead or behind could be raise him as a value raise.

So that’s all..oh!! i would like to say also that when you check the river you’re opponent may think (should think) that you dont have a good made hand on that board or you was just on a drawing flush…

I hope you will make changes on your play, not only based on maths, also on psycho. I mean with that…if we play to a game when i have a coin and i put it on one of my hands and if you know which is the hand where the coin is, you win $1, if you’re wrong i win $1. Sincerelly, we are not in a game where the EV is 0 as you can expect. The psycho counts, it’s your goal to be better than me on that for keep a positive EV.



(contact me please, i would like to talk with you of a few things…you have my mail, see you)

@ Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:49:58 PM

Hmmmm… I never thought of c/r’ing the turn. That’s pretty spiffy.

Nowadays, I would be a little more apt to bet this flop but I would be a little less apt to bet it if it didn’t contain the flush draw.

@ Tue Nov 25, 2008 01:16:21 PM
@ Sun Nov 30, 2008 08:01:53 PM

“If you call, you’re going to get shown a better hand a lot, but you only need to win about 30% of the time”

After making the math it looks like the break even point is 18.6%, so in fact you should be more willing to call the river in fact.

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