Questions Thread #11

How often do you get out an play these days? What’s your game?

What advice would you give on how to make proper use of programs such as PokerTracker, PAHUD, etc. for online players? I’ve just begun to play low limit online — quite profitably so far I’m happy to say — and I would like to do some quantitative analysis of my own play.

Shrike,

I’m a newbie, but what I’ve come to understand so far is that for statistics to give any relevant information, you need lots and lots of hands. You need tens of thousands of hands to infer any significant conclusions for most statistics, and even more for some specific questions, say, winrates for a specific hand type.

That said, some numbers should be converging on certain ranges pretty quickly. Typical example would be flop seen percentage or pre-flop raise percentage. Pretty quickly here means in the range of ten thousand, perhaps.

But the most important thing to note, in my opinion, is that to improve your game, stats are way too long-winged to give any help. You need to improve your game in a matter of sessions and that’s just not possible with the help of statistics. Instead, you should be studying your play hand by hand. Obviously you can’t study every single hand to the nitty-gritty details, but that’s where the real meat is. That’s where you can realize what you’re doing wrong.

For this kind of analysis, these programs actually can be of significant help. You can replay hands and you can have a quick glance on a session and so on. So my advice would be to ignore the statistics for now and concentrate on specific hand analysis. If they help in this task, go ahead and buy whichever feels the right for you.

Hi, Ed.

I’d like your opinion on the flop decision in this hand. It has three elements that we all love: Big slick, a guy who will call anything preflop (76/16/1.1 over a ~50 hand sample) and a limp/re-raise.

Unfortunately, we missed the flop. Bummer.

5/10 limit (Stars)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Kh Ah
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: 4d 9c Js (10.4SB, 2 players) UTG+1 checks, Hero …

I had been playing around ~23/17 in that game at that point, and my read on UTG+1 is that while he was unable to fold preflop, he wasn’t (extremely) stupid postflop. Also, he was at least somewhat tricky, but not a maniac who would raise anything that even remotely resembled a scarecard.

There are a couple of different lines I could take with this hand, all of them leading to showdown. I consider this pot too big for me to fold against this particular player with this particular hand. The flop decision looks obvious to me, but I’ve had some other people disagree with me.

Thanks,
Fredrik

Jarno:

I fully agree about sample size issues. My objective is to use some of these applications for precisely the reasons you cite.

Using PokerStove to study and simulate equity in many common situations has been valuable so far, but I’d like to extend and enhance my poker studies with real data of my own play — using PokerTracker or something similar — to act as a diagnostic tool verifying my decision-making in the heat of battle. Empiricism at work!

Jarno:

nah, you only need about 30 hands to get a rough idea on how a person plays. it becomes pretty clear by then how many hands the person plays and how aggressive they are. for true winrate type data, sure you need a lot of hands, but for making reasonable reads, 3 orbits is good enough.

Limit Hold’em: What is the biggest mistake intermediate players make when 1) attempting to steal blinds 2) defending the big blind.

Alternatively, what is the air speed velocity of an unladen swallow?

Thanks.

Steve, about 3 orbits being enough to categorize a player:

I emphatically disagree with that assessment. Clever players vary their style as the circumstances warrant. Pegging someone in a simple one-size-fits-all category on that small of a sample is asking for trouble. I demand more data before I reach any such conclusions.

I make an initial assesment based on the first 3 orbits and then re-evaluate as necessary. However, for most players I agree that 3 orbits is usually enough data. I let PAHUD show my stats after 10 hands so I can start to get an idea if the player has seen x% of flops. I don’t rely on the data till about 30 and I definitely observe those players more then others that i have more data on.

Hi Ed,

What advice do you have for adjusting to the increasingly tougher online full-ring LHE games? I have heard several suggestions such as: never open-limping; three-betting pre-flop with more hands (AQo, 99, 88, and even KJs); not always making standard continuation bets after raising pre-flop; playing aggressively with middle or bottom pair; saving bluffs for scary boards, etc. I’m interested in your thoughts on some of these plays and any additional ideas you may have.

-Matt

When to look at your stats

I’d like to know aobut when is a good time to figure out if you’ve “gotten it”. How many hours should I play before I get worried that I’m not playing right? (or get too cocky because I’ve made a bit?

In a related addition, what kind of result should I be shooting for in Big Bets per hour/per 100 hands?

Some more stuff…

I have been noticing that .05/.10 is about the only place (other than live play) where you can see 6-8 players to a flop.

I know you are not huge on playing online, but could you tell me if no-limit is “Where it’s at”?

I think about it and what people see on tv is no-limit. Am I wasting my time playing limit online and just save my SSHE for the live rooms?

If so, would your book “No-Limit hold em Theory” and practice be a good book to start with?

Ed,

I was wondering if you could talk a bit about strategy based on stack size in a HU limit Sng. I realize, like most poker questions, that it depends a lot on how you perceive your opponent, how they perceive you, and in general how they (if they) are reacting to stack size changes.

Specifically, say you are in a long timeframe blind structure (next level is in ten minutes or so) and you have 25BB and they have 10BB, or viceversa.

also, do you know why some poker sites reverse the HU tables and give the button the BB?

response to thatjimguy:

see Ed’s recent article about “knowing if you’re good”. Also, you do not need 8 people to a flop to make a game juicy. Most full ring tables 5/10 and below are still beatable for 1.5-2 BB/100 if you practice some table selection, although not all of the SSHE concepts will apply when more players than not are TAGish. However, most people will tell you that mid-limit shorthanded games tend to be the best in terms of being able to find weak players at reasonable stakes, albeit with some wicked variance.

lots of people believe NL online is currently more profitable than limit online, especially for small stakes players ($200 NL and below, 5/10 limit and below). YMMV it depends on which game you like - they are somewhat different skillsets.

Certainly if a fair amount of your aggregate profit is coming from multitabling many tables with a small winrate, I think it is much easier to play decent NL across 6 tables than it is to play decent limit across even 4. however, i also think lots of online players understate how much of an edge they lose while multitabling.

There has been a recent post in the 2+2 micros recommending that most hands should be played in “tempo”; this suggests that many players are using stop and gos and donk bets far more often than they should be. Your thoughts on this subject?

The post url:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8964861&page=0&fpart=1&vc=1

Being a little loose on the outs?

I’ve just went over something I didn’t think of before and I wanted to bring it on by.

When figuring outs for hands like middle pair or low pair, with no draws possible or probable, I figure 5 outs to hit two pair or trips.

Unless there is significant action, I usually assume that the most anyone has is top pair. Therefore, two pair would be good enough to beat it.

However, it is not the nuts, trips generally is. Should I discount the two pair outs to only one out for a total of four outs?

Basically, is it best to figure outs always to the nuts, or what you think will beat your opponent?

Hooray for Yuengling Lager. It’s what I’m drinking (and no, have not been playing).

Thanks Ed

Jim

Sitting longhanded in an online room. I’m wondering if i played the hand correctly, or if i should have done something differently?

.25/.50 limit, the game is somewhat tight, with around 3-4 seeing each flop.

Small posted the small blind - $0.12
Big posted the big blind - $0.25

** Dealing card to HERO: King of Clubs, Ace of Hearts
Early called - $0.25
Hero raised - $0.50
Donk folded
Donk folded
Donk folded
Donk folded
Other called - $0.50
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50
Early raised - $0.75
Hero called - $0.75
Other called - $0.75
Small called - $0.75
Big called - $0.75

** Dealing the flop: King of Hearts, 4 of Hearts, 3 of Clubs
Small checked
Big bet - $0.25
Early raised - $0.50
Hero called - $0.50
Other folded
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50

** Dealing the turn: Ace of Spades
Small bet - $0.50
Big raised - $1.00
Early called - $1.00
Roaming raised - $1.50
Small called - $1.50
Big called - $1.50
Early called - $1.50

** Dealing the river: 8 of Clubs
Small checked
Big checked
Early checked
Hero bet - $0.50
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50
Early folded
Hero shows: King of Clubs, Ace of Hearts
Small mucks:
Big mucks:
Hero wins $12.95 from the main pot

One more question, because this type of situation comes up a lot for me.

Sitting longhanded in an online room

.25/.50 limit, the game is somewhat tight, with around 3-4 seeing each flop.

** Dealing card to Hero: Queen of Spades, Ace of Clubs
Donk folded
Donk folded
Hero raised - $0.50
Donk folded
Other called - $0.50 (posted to play)
Donk folded
Donk folded
Small called - $0.50
Donk folded

** Dealing the flop: Jack of Hearts, 5 of Diamonds, 3 of Diamonds
Small checked
Hero bet - $0.25
Other raised - $0.50
Small folded
Hero called - $0.50

** Dealing the turn: 6 of Clubs
Hero checked
Other bet - $0.50
Hero folded
Other mucks:
Other wins $3.10 from the main pot

This happens quite often. My first question is if my flop bet was correct. And i feel like it was. No one has shown aggression. And i think its possible to pick up the pot right here for the smallest investment, so i bet.

When raised though, now i am at an utter loss. Betting and folding seems wrong on the flop round, because i feel i would have been called and raised on the turn if my foe had a monster. So i called, putting him on J/x or a flush draw, looking for a cheap river. The turn card missed completely. I checked and he bet. I feel confident now he has a jack. But am i getting outplayed by a flush draw?

Similar things come up often. Just wondering what your view is on it.

Counting Outs Twice

Imagine you are on a betting round and it is bet to you. Suppose you have sufficient pot odss to call a bet. Now after you call, it gets raised after you. Do you figure pot odds over again with the one bet only and forget your last call?

Sitting longhanded in an online room

.25/.50 limit, the game is somewhat tight, with around 3-4 seeing each flop.

Small posted the small blind - $0.12
Big posted the big blind - $0.25

** Dealing card to HERO: King of Clubs, Ace of Hearts
Early called - $0.25
HERO raised - $0.50
Button called - $0.50
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50
Early raised - $0.75
HERO called - $0.75
Button called - $0.75
Small called - $0.75
Big called - $0.75

** Dealing the flop: King of Hearts, 4 of Hearts, 3 of Clubs
Small checked
Big bet - $0.25
Early raised - $0.50
HERO called - $0.50
Button folded
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50

** Dealing the turn: Ace of Spades
Small bet - $0.50
Big raised - $1.00
Early called - $1.00
HERO raised - $1.50
Small called - $1.50
Big called - $1.50
Early called - $1.50

** Dealing the river: 8 of Clubs
Small checked
Big checked
Early checked
HERO bet - $0.50
Small called - $0.50
Big called - $0.50
Early folded
HERO shows: King of Clubs, Ace of Hearts
Small mucks:
Big mucks:
HERO wins $12.95 from the main pot

I won the hand, but i question if i made the right moves the whole way. My friends and i are torn about this one, but cant give any certain answer. Would love your take on it.

Roaming, on your 9:32 post,

Your flop has an easy re-raise written all over it. The pot was 3-bet in a field of 5 players, so it’s time to consider the pot large. You have to work to knock out those weak draws out of the pot. Not just gutshots and 3-flushes, someone may have middle or bottom pair right now and could improve to two pair on later streets if you let them stick around cheaply.

I think I know what you are worried about…that early position player. He could have sandbagged a good hand like AA or KK, and now can 3-bet since you opened it up.

Well, let’s assume he did sandbag a good hand, what could he re-raise with normally? Well, he could re-raise with AA and KK, but also QQ all the way to TT as well. He could also re-raise his own AKo. You are a lot safer than you think.

(and that’s assuming he plays like you do…and that’s a rule that Ed has in his DVD set you should aquire…

“Dont assume your opponents play like you do”

so considering this, your chances are even better that he doesn’t have anything better than you)

If he had hit the flop he would have raised the turn as well to continue to protect his hand against that nasty flush draw. He didn’t. He probally was on a flush draw. (Which means he was probally re-rasing you with something like AQs or KQs or maybe worse.

If he had a made hand like QQ, he probally would have folded the turn with a A and K showing.

Everything else seems cool.

Realize that sometimes, you will come across this exact same hand and your opponent will, indeed, have AA or KK that they were sandbagging. It’s happened to me, it’ll happen to you. But it won’t be the MAJORITY of the time. So if you don’t get your bets in when you’re hand stands up, it WON’T seem worth playing as compared to when you lose with it. (Which is probally why so many players complain about losing with AK….like I have…they pay too much attention to when they lose and don’t capitalize with it when they will win.)

ThatJimGuy

Question:

I am playing on WPEX and get the feeling people are taking shots at me by 3betting/putting more bets in preflop and c/ring the turn, I am talking about limit 6max.
I am not a type of person who will bluff 3bet the turn or tries to many funcy stuff. Mostly when I get 3betted and totally miss the flop I release my hand same goes for the turn c/r. Surely I can read boards good and know when to call down Ahigh in a blind battle or headsup when there was preflop one raise, but I found it harder when multiple bets went in before the flop. Also when lets say the button raises you reraise in the SB with a ok hand like KQ/QJ/Ax etc and he caps behind now on the flop I have no idea what to do when I hit TP or anything else because I immetiatly assume villian has a great hand. But after a sessions of folding allot of flops/turns I have the feeling that this isn’t right, and am not confertable never having a showdown that brings me to the next topic as because I hardly b/f any river.

These are some serious leaks in my game and I hope you have some suggestions for them.

Can’t comment too much on gameplay since I am new to shorthanded as well.

But Ed’s was plugging, Dave Fromm’s shorthanded DVD set out that will help you with those questions. (If you decide to but it, be nice and use Ed’s link on the home page, it should still be there. IT will be from AMAZON, so you’ll get a good price.) Ed also has a section on shorthanded on his DVD “Advanced Pre-Flop Concepts”, he talks about “showdown value” where you can take a hand and just check and call it down no matter the flop.

I got it not to play shorthanded, but to get used to how things change when a full game breaks up a little. (I probally should reconsider, since I hear that’s good times right now…anyone want to comment on that one?)

What I can say is that I have looked into WPEX and the only players that know about it are good players. I doubt the fish ratio is very high. I think you are in for a tough fight there. (any comments on that one anyone?)

What I can remember about Dave’s DVD’s is that you have to consider how good your hand is over 5 cards, not just the flop. A lot of players will 3-bet a 8 out draw as a semi-bluff.

I’m in the same boat you are in full ring. If the opposition notices that you do not three bet pre-flop unless you got the goods, that’s information to them.

I would like to ask some question along the same vein as Wouter…

Is 3-betting what we should be shooting for as an agressive player? Like 3-betting top pair for instance?

Should you only cap with a monster?

When up against an agressive player, when do you shoot back at his raises?

Is being agressive meaning being more aggressive than anyone else at the table?

Thanks

Jim

First off, sorry about posting that one question twice. For some reason it didn’t show up the first time around until after i had made the second post. So i thought i hadnt sent it.

I actually dont remember if i thought he was sandbagging or not. But i did remember thinking that id like to see the turn without threebetting, so i could either get away for a big bet less, or cram in an extra big bet or two if i improved (or felt safe) on the turn.

It worked out good in this case, but i hadnt even considered driving out the other players on that hand. Good catch. Thanks.

Roaming, on your 6:14 post

Taking a look at this, I feel bad for you because you are in the perdiciment that many of us are right now when it comes to online play. It’s really just dried up. 3-4 on a .25/.50 game? sheesh. Any, try to remember, the tools you are trying to use (I assume you use Ed’s “Small Stakes Hold ‘Em”) was generally meant for loose games of 6-8 players per flop. Don’t get discouraged, all that information is just as valuable, but there are lessons that are needed in drier games that that book does not cover.

Anyway, on your hand, I think your bluff at the pot on the flop was a decent idea for a couple reasons.

1) There were only three players and the flop very well could have missed then all.
2) being the agressor is generally a good thing

I think it may not have worked becuase..

With 3-4 players to a flop on a .25/.50 game, you probally were playing on the weekday against a bunch of bonus grinders. (more expeienced players just playing to hit thier bonus the website gives them to create an account if the play a certain length of time). They expect the pre-flop raiser to bet out first with just about anything. So maybe this guy had something, just as much, maybe he was bluffing himself.

Also, this is where knowing your opponent comes into play. He may bet with whatever, but when he raises, does he mean business? Actually, he just posted to play this hand, so I guess that doesn’t help you here. Except that maybe, since he didn’t wait for the BB to come around and post that he is impantient and wanted to play now, which leads me to beleive he would raise with middle pair.

Also, he could be expeinced enough to know that you can raise with middle pair because it wins a good amount in a three way pot.

Now, I am in no way an expert at bluffing, but it seems to me there are only two ways to really bluff this guy.

1) Check-raise him and bet the turn, besides, you get to see if the SB would have folded (he did, of course, but what if he didn’t?..what if he check raised? Now you are safe to fold.

2) 3-bet back at him and bet the turn. Be convincing! You are like me I think and are probally only doing those little “If it costs me only a bet” bluffs and not used to the 2 & 3 bet bluff investments.

The only problem I see with either of these is that after the pre-flop betting round, there were only 7sb in the pot.

Doing the check raise, you would have to get him to fold 1 in 4 times to break even. 1 in 3 to show a profit.

Doing the 3-bet version, you would have to get him to fold roughlt once out of every two times.

I guess that settles it for me! The check raise bluff is better here because:

a) it’s cheaper
b) you get to see everyone’s action before you even make the play
c) it’s more agressive
d) if you end end getting just called, you may still have the best hand now, or by the river
e) it puts the pressure on the bettor

Ok man. Let’s see how the crowd thinks of this one!

Jim

Yes it was a weekday. And the games have gotten awful. I went to the casino for the first time on saturday and made a killing, because im so use to playing against tighter and more agressive players. Sitting down at my first 3/6 table to see seven people per hand, often times with no preflop raise was like jesus christ himself wink at me and say ‘its gonna be a good night’.

The checkraise bluff on the flop seems to be the way to go here. I never have used it before, but i feel confident i have one more move now to add into my arsenal. It should be a nice switch move in agressive games, not only to keep me from getting bluffed, but also working as a bluff.

And while i own.. ToP, Advanced Guide to Hold’em, Small stakes, middle limit, and a few other books. Small stakes is the one im currently working on mastering. Its nice sitting down at a 3/6 table and after watching a few hands knowing youre the best one there, and still have a long way to go.

It’s all I wanted when I first got into poker was SSHE. I wanted to play, but specialize. I really didn’t think I’d have the time to improve to a higher game.

Ok Ed, that brings up another one…when you want to move up, what are you looking to improve on to go up levels?

What I mean here is that small stakes really works somewhat mechanically to a degree. Our decisions are largely placed out for us with pot odds, pot size, number of players, etc.

So what are the first few things that change when you go up? Bluffing is one of them obviously, but anything else?

For that matter, could it really change that much at even higher up? There has to be a cutoff in how well you can play isn’t there? When does it start breaking down into a turkey shoot?

An example of what I am talking about here is like at the highest levels in chess, where the only skill left to give a player an edge seems to be drudging up openings that aren’t in vogue and using them to surprise your opponents when you are playing white and having a small arsenal of counters for whatever surprises your opponent will throw at you when you are playing black.

Thanks

Jim

I’m still not Ed, but I guess I could try to answer Jim’s question.

I’m assuming here that by “going up levels” means roughly the same as “playing against tougher players”. I don’t if they’re the same, but I think they have a rather strong correlation.

With all that in mind, I think the tendency would be from loose/passive to tight/aggressive (and some loose aggression, too). Also, you’d expect your opponents to become smarter of their play.

The nice thing about typical, not very thoughtful, loose passive play is that it’s very predictable. Predictable doesn’t mean that you know what cards your opponents hold, but that most of their actions follow predictable patterns.

These predictable patterns enable moves that can be pretty dangerous against thoughtful players. Loose/passive players in the smallest limits do not usually respond with aggression to your aggression.

When you go up levels, suddenly your opponents are doing the exact same moves that you are. They’re protecting their hands. They’re semi-bluffing with weak draws. They’re value-betting relentlessly. They’re calling down your bluffs.

Certain levels of “fancy play” is required, just because you need those moves to protect your hand. In higher levels, you’ll get unexpected responses to your hand protection moves and you’ll be confused.

Note that this doesn’t imply that higher limit players would be “mixing up” their play. No, they’re just playing better. Mixing up just for the sake of it is needed only in the highest games.

Im also not ed, but i believe the key is to master your skills slowly.

The small stakes book assumes that your opponents bad. But they still fall into the ranges of loose or tight and passive or aggressive. At higher limits, the game doesn’t change. But your opponents do.

Where a 3/6 game might look like this..

Bad player, tight/passive
Bad player, loose/passive
Bad player, loose/passive
Bad player, loose/passive
Bad player, loose/aggressive
Weak player, tight/passive
Weak player, tight/passive
Decent player, loose/aggressive
Good player, tight/aggressive

And you.. lets say you’re a semi-pro tight/aggressive. You’re strategy should be not only playing against each of those players, one by one. But playing against the table as a whole.

The first thing you notice about the above table is its full of mostly passive players. Mostly loose players. But more importantly, these players are mostly bad. And all of them are worse than you. All things being equal, you should do very well at this table.

Now compare this to say a 30/60 table.

Bad player, loose/aggressive
Decent player, loose/aggressive
Decent player, tight/passive
Good player, tight/aggressive
Good player, tight/aggressive
Semi-Pro player, tight/aggressive
Semi-Pro player, tight/aggressive
Pro player, tight/aggressive
Pro player, tight/aggressive

Notice now how many things have changed. The table is MUCH tighter and MUCH more aggressive. Not only that, but two of the players are at least as good as you, and two of them are better.

Overall, this table is MUCH worse from a big bet per hour standpoint. While in the 3/6 table you might pull 2BB an hour. At this table you may only pull 1/2BB an hour.

So, in your question of ‘when to move up’. Compare. Would you rather make $12 an hour, or $30 an hour?

If you can afford to play at it, the 30/60 table is without a doubt better for you.

But say you’re a regular at the casino, and on your way to your normal 30/60 game. And you notice an entire table of fish who normally play at 3/6 are now sitting at a 8/16 table. You know you can easily make 2BB from them per hour, if not the 3 you use to make. Now the table of fish looks more attractive to you, because you can make between 32-48 per hour, vs the 30 you normally make.

Whats the short answer? Play at the game which is most profitable, that your bankroll can support. Not the game you feel like you should be playing at. By classing yourself as a 30/60 player. You’re punished on days when the 30/60 game is tough. And punished on days when lower games are easy. Let your bankroll put a cap on the highest game you can play in, and then choose the most profitable game from those you can afford.

Sorry, im a bit longwinded. Ciao.

Ed I would also love to see you write an article about how the game changes as you move up in levels and what skills we need to develop to move up. You are probably the one poker author who is most qualified to do this.

Ed,
I would like to post the entire play of the hand on this one because I’m afraid I made multiple-street-mistakes.

Live no-limit full ring ( fairly loose and wild with lots of payoffs )

2 limpers to me on the button, I raise to 3x bb to sweeten the pot with ATs. The BB calls (it’s his 3rd hand at the table ). Both limpers call as well. Was this size of raise a mistake?

Flop comes Qs 4d 6s. All 3 check to me. Right as I bet 10bb’s into the 12bb pot, I simultaneously remembered you remarking somewhere that USUALLY you are better off to take the free card. So, A) How big of a mistake was this? B) when is a not usually scenario and if you are going to bet it how do you size it ?

BB calls, one fold , mp limper raises to 20 bb’s, I call, and now BB goes all in for 65bb’s more ( I have him covered with 200 bb’s). So 65bb’s to me and there are now 137 bb’s in the pot, so roughly 2.3 to call, felt I had to becasue of the odds? ( He had 2 pair which I considered along with a set or top pair only ).

Was I right to call here?

To borrow your analogy, I felt like I once again stepped in doo poo and this time I could NOT get it off my shoe.

Howdy Ed, glad to hear your vacation went well. Now back to work eh? Actually, is it still work? I’ve done a lot of things in my life I have loved full time or close to it.(Owning a Dungeons & Dragons store, professional wrestling)I loved them, but after awhile it dragged on me and I realize it was just a job after awhile. What’s your take on the professional life? How about the semi-pro life? How long do you think you will be doing this yourself?

Thanks

Jim

[...] back through the last questions thread, I noticed a couple of quick questions from Roaming. I figured I’d rapid fire them [...]