Q&A #90: Pocket Kings Against Possible Pocket Aces

Great analysis Ed. But I’m confused by one thing: you refer to the preflop action as both a “fourth raise” and “4-betting.” Isn’t it a third raise (3, 12, and 30 bb), which, if I understand the terminology correctly is also called 4-betting?

Well, mainly I wanted to point out that if your opponent will put in the fourth raise reliably with AK and QQ, then you’re in fine shape even if you go broke to AA every time and your opponent never goes broke to you with QQ. Pushing on the flop is easily better than folding on the flop.

Aren’t you also assuming that AK and QQ will always c-bet on this flop? In reality, at least AK may sometimes check that flop.

I also want to point out that merely calling the flop with the intention of getting all-in on the turn may be the right line if it induces your opponent to play for his stack with QQ, while he might fold to the substantial flop all-in. Letting AK draw to three outs is not the end of the world.

Ed,

Thanks much for the analysis.

Its interesting that you feel my opponent’s psychology may be different in a freeze out format, yet mine essentially should not be. I understand what you mean though. Simply put, while other’s have potentially changed their approach, they (and I) shouldn’t. The math is still the math.

FYI…in this hand, the villian rolled QQ. I did recover, but ended up just short, eventually losing to the same villian…who I had left alive in hand #2…

Nice article, Ed. I think the most interesting case is when the villain has AK. First thing to note is that if we can put him on either the suited or unsuited variety, that it is still statistically his most likely hand even though we have TWO KINGS.

The other thing of note is how the bets were sized. Both a pot size bet on the flop and a push on the turn seem designed to put pressure on the hero rather than extract extra value. In fact, with AA wouldn’t some villains bet somewhat smallish on the flop to avoid being committed if the hero has a set? Hero would have to have a medium of small pp for this, but this is possible since hand 2 of a satellite is wide open in terms of styles of play you will encounter. The interesting thing about a villain with AK here is that he is almost never calling a push on the flop (which you’d rather he call) and sometimes pushing on the turn (which you’d rather he did if your intention is to call).

Funny I’d find this story today. My kings were cracked earlier today, all in preflop, by 23 off suit, he boated.