Q&A #63: Calculating Odds on the Flop - Count Both Cards or Just One?

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Today I answer one of the single most common poker questions I hear. Brian asks,

Should I calculate combined odds of hitting my outs on the turn and river OR just the odds of hitting my outs on the turn alone?

It’s a simple question with a semi-complicated answer. You have a ...

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6 Responses to “Q&A #63: Calculating Odds on the Flop - Count Both Cards or Just One?”

Brian Elfstrom
@ Mon Mar 19, 2007 06:57:42 PM
1

Thank you, Ed. Very good explanation.

Tjorriemorrie
@ Tue Mar 20, 2007 09:56:37 AM
2

Very interesting, very good and well explained.

I only think mentioning the best-case win of $290 is a bit over the top. I don’t think a villian will call $210 on the river for a 120 pot when he sees the river could complete a draw. If he does, then you should consider reverse implied odds. But I understand that’s not for this article, so let me get to what I actually wanted to say.

I did some calculations and in my opinion I’m not a big fan of betting on the flop in a multi-way pot. Mainly because you should get enough odds to call and because of reverse implied odds. I do however favour making a bet heads-up because of folding equity.

That’s all. Oops, I forgot my disclaimer: i’m a beginner so any response will be appreciated :)

Brian Elfstrom
@ Tue Mar 20, 2007 07:18:52 PM
3

Ed mentions “best case win of $290″ as an examination of $290. He is pointing out in this example that even with implied odds you don’t have good enough odds to call a 10:1 draw.

I’m glad you’re not a fan of betting on the flop in a multi-way pot. Can I ask what casinos and/or web sites you play at so that I might sit at your table?

In all seriousness, you are missing another key point Ed is trying to make - pot equity. In a multi-way pot, let’s say you are 33% to win and there are more than three opponents (including yourself) you have a pot equity advantage - meaning every extra dollar that your opponents put in, you will get 33% of it back over the long-run. And you might get a free card.

I was like you when I was first starting out. Then I picked up Ed’s book - Small Stakes Hold’Em. I’d start there.

JJS
@ Tue Mar 20, 2007 07:28:45 PM
4

Tjorriemorrie, I am a beginner too but I feel pretty sure that Brian is right, and that you shouldn’t make any rules like “be less inclined to bet the flop on a multi-way pot”. Poker is just too complex for simple rules like that. It depends on the hand, the flop, and the type of players you are playing against. And probably on other things too that I don’t even know about…

Adam
@ Sun Dec 30, 2007 06:59:19 PM
5

This is maybe the best explanation I’ve read on determining drawing odds, in print or on the internet. Excellent article and kudos for explaining your point in terms of a limit betting structure.

calvin
@ Mon May 19, 2008 01:37:08 AM
6

Hi! recently i am just read ur new book professional NL . I have a question regarding Odds & Outs. For example , Odds(Limit) for flush draw is 4.1to1. However, Odds(Nl) for flush draw from preflop till river is 1.97to1 by using percentage count. My question is does that means the odds for limit & Nl is count differently even the same situation?

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