Q&A #62: A Questionable Limit Turn Call
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“Do I have odds to call?” It’s a common and important question. Today, Robert asks it about a hand he played at the wild and crazy Hawaiian Gardens cardroom.
I played a hand at a Hawaiian Gardens 3/6 game where I called the flop and turn, but mucked the river, and a friend of mine at the table claimed that he couldn’t put me on a hand where that line was appropriate. Here it is:
I’m on the button in a raised pot preflop with five players, so, on the flop the pot is $30 (before rake).
The board is raggy like A
9
5
.
I have the old 5
4
.
The preflop raiser bets into the field and everyone folds.
I think he probably has top pair with a good kicker but he might also have three aces or some other big pair.
I plan to call on the flop, call on the turn, and fold the river unimproved if he leads river.
(the chance that he would muck KK-TT even on an Ace-high board is non-existent because he is sticky and I have an aggressive image – this part, we both agree on)My friend said that flop call was fine b/c I was getting 11-to-1 immediately and I have approx 5 outs. However, he didn’t like my call on the turn as well, but I told him it was +EV. He doesn’t agree. Who’s right?
My Thoughts: I looked at this hand at the table from an “effective odds” perspective, including some implied odds when I hit and he pays off. I later did some calcs at home and it proved to be +EV.
However, a poster claimed that I suffer from reverse implied odds here, but I disagree because:
1) I can restrict my opponent’s range very tightly
2) If I improve, it’s not likely to improve him as well
3) I don’t plan to go off for 3-bets on the turn or river
4) I’m certain to get paid offI also agree that if I call on the flop, I will be getting bad odds on the turn to call, but I’ve already taken this expense into account in my calculations. It still shows a profit, right?
The pot is $33, I call $3. The pot is now $36, which he bets $6 into, so my odds are 7-to-1 on the turn, not quite enough to draw for sure. But my expectation on the flop + the turn + the river, I think makes this an easy call-call-muck when I miss and a call down till I improve then c/r or raise his river bet for value.
Besides including the loss I incur when I hit and get resucked or miss my draw completely, you have to throw in the value I have when I get in a c/r on the turn or river.
Basically, I can play perfectly against this passive opponent so I don’t suffer from reverse implied odds. Keep in mind this is B&M, not online.
What do you think?
I think the turn decision is close.
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Tags: hawaiian-gardens, hidden-outs, implied-odds, limit-holdem, loose-games, pot-odds

Great article Ed. I know this was an esoteric problem and I thank you for going through the math real delicately like that, not to mention the great strategic advice you included in your analysis. I now have a new way of looking at these kinds of problems.