Q&A #62: A Questionable Limit Turn Call

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“Do I have odds to call?” It’s a common and important question. Today, Robert asks it about a hand he played at the wild and crazy Hawaiian Gardens cardroom.

I played a hand at a Hawaiian Gardens 3/6 game where I called the flop and turn, but mucked the river, and a friend of mine at the table claimed that he couldn’t put me on a hand where that line was appropriate. Here it is:

I’m on the button in a raised pot preflop with five players, so, on the flop the pot is $30 (before rake).

The board is raggy like A 9 5 .

I have the old 5 4 .

The preflop raiser bets into the field and everyone folds.

I think he probably has top pair with a good kicker but he might also have three aces or some other big pair.

I plan to call on the flop, call on the turn, and fold the river unimproved if he leads river.
(the chance that he would muck KK-TT even on an Ace-high board is non-existent because he is sticky and I have an aggressive image – this part, we both agree on)

My friend said that flop call was fine b/c I was getting 11-to-1 immediately and I have approx 5 outs. However, he didn’t like my call on the turn as well, but I told him it was +EV. He doesn’t agree. Who’s right?

My Thoughts: I looked at this hand at the table from an “effective odds” perspective, including some implied odds when I hit and he pays off. I later did some calcs at home and it proved to be +EV.

However, a poster claimed that I suffer from reverse implied odds here, but I disagree because:

1) I can restrict my opponent’s range very tightly
2) If I improve, it’s not likely to improve him as well
3) I don’t plan to go off for 3-bets on the turn or river
4) I’m certain to get paid off

I also agree that if I call on the flop, I will be getting bad odds on the turn to call, but I’ve already taken this expense into account in my calculations. It still shows a profit, right?

The pot is $33, I call $3. The pot is now $36, which he bets $6 into, so my odds are 7-to-1 on the turn, not quite enough to draw for sure. But my expectation on the flop + the turn + the river, I think makes this an easy call-call-muck when I miss and a call down till I improve then c/r or raise his river bet for value.

Besides including the loss I incur when I hit and get resucked or miss my draw completely, you have to throw in the value I have when I get in a c/r on the turn or river.

Basically, I can play perfectly against this passive opponent so I don’t suffer from reverse implied odds. Keep in mind this is B&M, not online.

What do you think?

I think the turn decision is close.

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