Q&A #44: Big Draw Against a Maniac

Ed,

Your suit guessing was pretty good, I had 4,5 of hearts. The flop was 2,5 of clubs and 3 of spades, the turn 10 of spades and river king of clubs.

I posted this hand on 2+2 in the micro-limit forum and most people didn’t like the way I played it - too risky they said, he’s never calling with a hand you beat, etc. I know if the push gets called I’m in trouble, that’s the way it always is, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t the most profitable way to play the hand. I could have called the flop raise, but if the turn misses I have a difficult situation. If I check I face the prospect of a big turn bet (he overbet routinely). I could try a blocking bet but again, he could easily pop me for a raise since that was the way he played.

My opinion on their analysis was that they thought about hands in a weak-tight manner. I did some pokerstove analysis following the hand and I felt that against his massive range, I had at least 55% equity, so I’m fine getting it all in. Overall, I don’t think some of posters grasped adjusting your play to your opponents.

I’m somewhat suprised that you thought preflop this was a fold considering your starting hand recommendations from TAP. I know it was raised and I’m OOP, which changes the situation, but I wasn’t respecting anything this player was doing. It was clear from my observations that he just didn’t have a clue he was playing wildy.

Perfect illustration:
In an earlier hand I raised 5x BB from the button with JJ, with villian in the BB. Villian reraises the minimum. Then I did something very unconventional, I pushed for about 8 times the pot. I knew my hand was best and I knew he would call with just about anything. He did and showed Ace-trey offsuit, so I was about 70% to win, but unfortunately he spiked an ace. This setup my later push with the pair and draw.

Sorry Ed, I just reread your comments and you said it was probably ok to call preflop against a maniac. Disregard the last 2 paragraphs (although it makes for interesting reading).