Q&A #40: A Big Laydown on the Bubble

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Justin asks,

No-Limit Holdem

Qualification live MTT for a bigger tournament, but there is a substantial cash prize pool for this tournament. Late tournament, 12 players left out of 70, 7 get paid and a spot in the finals. Blinds 1500-3000. MP solid player limps, SB calls, I check in the BB with 35o. SB will see every limped flop when he is in the SB. He will take stabs at pots, but when the betting gets big he will lay his hand down. He had moved all-in a few times with medium hands and has gotten lucky when called.

Stacks after posting blinds:

SB stack-29K

My stack-35K

Pot=9000

Flop 246 two spades one club

SB checks, I bet my made straight 5000, MP folds, SB calls.

Pot=19000

Turn A

SB goes all-in for 24K more

Total pot=43K

My odds=1.8/1

If I call, I will have 73K, and final table average will be 40K. If I fold, I will have 6K left and my tournament will essentially be over.

I honestly put him on a flush. He limped so he could have anything, he called my flop bet, then moved in with the flush card. The pot was big enough that he probably wanted to take it down right away. I thought the Ace helped him by pairing him, or he had the flush. I felt more strongly he had the flush. I should have bet more on the flop, but I wanted some action and a little more than half pot bet seemed right.

This tournament is somewhat like a satellite, but there is incentive to play for first because there is substantial money to be won in addition to the seat in the bigger tournament, but playing for 7th first I think is the best. Even in a regular tournament this would be a tough decision.

What would you have done?

I folded and opponent showed A4 diamonds for 2 pair.

I felt sick.

I did go on to finish 7th and this opponent went out in 9th.

Thanks for the help.

The bubble can be a strange place, and it can turn regular poker play upside down. You aren’t playing for chips anymore, you’re playing to finish in a certain place, and that can lead you to make some wacky plays.

You said the cash pool was “significant,” but you didn’t say how significant. It makes a difference, so I’ll just go through a few scenarios and tell you what I think.

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