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Maybe I am assuming the worst too much if I were to get raised after betting the turn. I figure someone raising in this spot probably at least has a straight. I didn’t think about the possibility of a raise meaning two-pair or a set also. Am I having a case of fearing the worst?
Also, you suggested calling down if check-raised unless a third person puts in action. Are you saying that if it gets raised and cold-called you are folding in this spot?
Jacob,
The key to limit hold ‘em is to save pots, not bets. Don’t look for giant laydowns in big pots. There’s no way I’d even consider laying down after a turn checkraise. You have too many possible outs against too many different hands.
And the turn raise could be on as little as top pair or the A:spade:, maybe with a paired kicker. Don’t get tunnel vision. People aren’t predictable, and you simply can’t assume that everyone always has the goods when they raise.
Furthermore, even if your opponent showed you a straight, you should still call the turn, as you have nine outs against a straight.
No, when I made the comment about a third player, I wasn’t talking about a cold-call. Again, you’re getting umptillion-to-1, you don’t fold an overpair for one bet. I was talking about another player in there raising. If it could three more bets on the turn, then you have to start thinking about what to do. But when it’s only one more back to you, it’s an auto-call.
What about the problem we have with our flush outs not be very clean. Should they be discounted some?
Definitely, your outs should be discounted. After all, you could even be drawing stone dead.
The problem is, you don’t really know what your opponent has, so you don’t know which cards are outs. If your opponent has two pair, the board pairing might be outs. If your opponent has a straight, then a spade might be an out (and the board pairing won’t help you at all). If your opponent has the A:spade:, then you could be ahead, and a spade could be the card that beats you.
Every one of your possible “outs” should be discounted. But overall, when you add everything up, you have too large a chance to win, given the size of the pot, to fold. You basically just have to sigh, put the money in, and hope you win.
Note, this is true only because the pot is large. In a small pot, a “let’s just hope something good happens for me” attitude will sink you. But when the pot is this large, you need to stick it out. (Though I wouldn’t necessarily fold this overpair in a small pot either.)
How many outs would you give our draw here after discounting?
I know the pair may be a little low for this, but is there any merit to checking the flop in order to potentially protect better on the turn? If Hero had AA rather than JJ, would it be an OK play to check the flop through?
It seems that our equity will potentially change a lot from flop to turn, and that betting the flop doesn’t improve our chances to take down the pot that much. Even if it’s checked to us again on the turn, a turn bet would then deny odds to a lot of our opponents’ hands.
That Santa is kind of creepy. Where did you find that picture? Is it supposed to be scary like a scary card or was that just a coincidence?