Q&A #31: More Waiting for the Turn in a Big Pot
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T.J. asks,
It is an AA overpair hand in a 6-way capped flop, reasonably similar to your KK example in SSHE. (Original hand post can be found here.)
PokerStars 1/2 Hold’em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)Preflop: Hero is CO with A
, A
.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero caps, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.Flop: (25.50 SB) Q
, 2
(6 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Button raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.Turn: (17.75 BB) 8
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.River: (30.75 BB) 9
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ??I did a bit of analysis in the thread showing why call the flop, raise the turn was better, but the board remains unconvinced. I thought between your overpair hands in some of the 2+2 collections and the example in SSHE, this line in massive pots was close to 2+2 mantra.
I would really like your thoughts on the hand. Thanks for your help and time.
This is a popular topic. It’s a tricky one, though, so it’s well worth going through a number of examples. I’ve answered two similar questions already: Q&A #15 and Q&A #21. I recommend reading those Q&As in addition to this one.
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Tags: flopturnriver, hand-converter, limit-holdem, overpair, poker, pot-equity, small-stakes-holdem, sshe, two-overpair-hands, two-plus-two, twoplustwo, waiting-for-the-turn
Ed -
Thanks for commenting on the hand – you bring out some points I did not take into account in my original analysis. Interesting that you are less a fan of this play than when you published SSHE – always nice to see poker knowledge progress and morph even amongst the “elite.”
I think this is one of those hands that (in words from an old MK 2+2 post), “[if someone is going to hit] on the turn, I’m doomed and there’s not a damn thing I can do about it”
To wit: using the equity calculations from my original 2+2 post, if MP1 bets the flop, I raise, and Button 3-jacks, MP1 is getting the correct odds to call 2 bets back to him even if he knows his Q outs are dead. Plus, from a pragmatic standpoint, a player that plays Q8o for two back to them preflop is not the type to fold when they hit top pair.
At the end of the day, there is absolutely nothing I can do to protect my Aces. The pot is just too big.
And, as a general comment, I hope your site/blog takes off. I’m sure I’m not alone in saying that I miss the Ed Miller conribution on 2+2, but I am encouraged to see the frequency of your postings here and hope they continue.