Q&A #111: Committment With Tournament Stack Sizes

“Pot Committed” is one of the greatest fallacies passed on from player to player to player to player to … and so on, for generations.

Eric,

Please explain your comment. Are you arguing for or against Ed’s commitment threshold?

All,

Ed said:

“You play a lot of tournaments, and busting out of one is no big deal. You just go play another.”

Here, Natchez, Mississippi, it is a big deal unless you are playing online. The tournaments are few and far between.

Yesterday, in one of them at the final table, with the blinds at 400 and 800, I had 5800 chips and went all-in in an unopened pot with A-2s. I was called by K-Qo, and doubled up.

A few hands later with the blinds at 800 – 1600, in late MP, there were the blinds and one limper when it got to me. Three players behind. I got A-Qo, one of my better hands of the day, and with 11,500 I pushed. The BB, the chip leader, slowly and agonizingly stacked up chips trying to decide whether or not to call. Finally, he did, everybody else folded, he turned over pocket jacks, and flopped a full house. I made a straight on the river. Toast.

I wonder if, while he was deciding, I had looked at him and said, “I can guarantee you one thing: You don’t have Aces this time,” whether it would have made any difference.

I saw Helumth talk Dwan out of calling on High Stakes Poker’s The Cash Game. Phil had made a big bet on the end with middle pair — nines. While Dwan was thinking Phil said, “It’s not just nines baby.” Dwan finally folded the better hand.

Back to commitment thresholds:

Going all-in with the 11,500 (above) was all according to Ed, M, and the 10xBB theory.

This morning at coffee with a four or five of my less committed, less learned poker playing friends (here I refer to them as Poker Zombies), I recounted the hand and asked them how they would have played it.

Most said they would have made a bet, and folded on the flop if they missed. I said, “If you made any reasonable bet, say 3x (4800) you wouldn’t have many chips left (6700)if you missed.” To a person they replied, “Oh, I have come back won tournaments with chip stacks like that.”

The aggravating thing is: they are correct. I have done it myself when an all-in left me with a low M chip stack. Two or three lucky all-ins with decent cards, if you get them, and you are back in the middle of it.

My A-Qo all-in, if I lose, left nothing but a sad, dejected retreat.

That said, I will keep playing that hand the same way.

Natchez

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Here, Natchez, Mississippi, it is a big deal unless you are playing online. The tournaments are few and far between.
…snip…

It seems like you play quite a few by your posts. Don’t you play in some local series?

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Going all-in with the 11,500 (above) was all according to Ed, M, and the 10xBB theory.
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Doesn’t Stinger do some SNG videos on CardRunners? I would guess he advises lots of folding early and then ICM based push/fold decisions once the blinds get high. You bust out a lot on some hands that look sort of crazy, but the math and theory behind it is sound. The most winning players of that style of game tend to play that style. My money is on those guys vs. well, most everyone else.

…snip…
Most said they would have made a bet, and folded on the flop if they missed. I said, “If you made any reasonable bet, say 3x (4800) you wouldn’t have many chips left (6700)if you missed.” To a person they replied, “Oh, I have come back won tournaments with chip stacks like that.”
…snip…

Boy, I don’t think that is very good advice. You have a top 10 hand that likes to see all 5 cards. I’m delighted when I get my chips in with a hand that good.

You are much better off getting all you chips in with a hand as good as AQ than folding away 1/3 of your stack and getting them in after blinding down a bit with a worse hand. You may not see 20 more hands at that point. AQ rates to be the best one. Maybe you can gable with another hand, but you have your best gambling hand right now! Get in there and gamble.

How can I learn how to play poker when I can’t even figure out how you guys do that …snip… thing? I am going to do it manually…

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It seems like you play quite a few by your posts. Don’t you play in some local series?

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We have a weekly local series, but it is, for all but three or four players, a chance to get together for “fun” (I only have fun when I win no matter what it is that I am doing.) One of the few good players said: “We don’t play poker here. We play cards.” The buy-in is a paltry $15.00, and except for the “bragging rights” which, among this group, are significant since they all are or were mostly successful businessmen. We award a championship trophy at the end of the year. Two years ago I was second. Last year I won. This year I am in second place, $10.00 behind the leader. These are the players to whom I refer as “Poker Zombies.”

Besides this weekly tournament I have played in 36 “real” tournaments dating all the way back to 2005. I cashed in 18 out of the first 27 tournaments. Since then, I am demoralized; I have gone 9 straight tournaments without cashing.

I give up on the …snip…, …snip…!

Yes, I am watching the SNGs on Cardrunners. And I tend to play just the way you describe his advice above.

When quoting what the “Poker Zombies” said when I told them about the hand did not mean that I pay any attention to what they say. It is conversational and a way to reinforce my view of their poor play. Sometimes in conversation like this I glean whether one or another has been doing any study to improve their game so that I will know what I am dealing with.

I also keep a log of their type play and update it from time to time if there is any change. For instance, one player who I used to classify as LAG has now been reclassified to TAG.

I place no credence in what they say about playing a hand unless it accidentally correct. And I never tell them that it is.

Thanks for taking the time to comment. I am working at this, but it is very frustrating. I have virtually quit doing other things in my life that were rewarding to study chess: reading, composing music, writing short stories, and watching anything on television other than the news and poker.

One more comment about the weekly series of tournaments that awards a trophy at the end of the year.

The “Poker Zombies” are the players there (virtually all of them) that “don’t know that they don’t know.” They don’t care either. Other than watching poker on TV they have done little or no work on their game.

One guy said, “I don’t need the book. I can watch the game and people and figure it out.”

What is disturbing to me is that nine of us out of the 20 members in the club are within $70.00 of each other after 56 tournaments! Except for me none of them have worked at poker.

A $370 (good, aggressive but unbooked)
B $360 (Natcheztoo) TAG but impotent at poker of late
C $350 (LAG, no book, bets, bluffs, calling station)
D $350 (cash game player, one of best in this group, makes a lot of moves, no book)
E $350 (loose passive, calling station, no book)
F $350 (tight aggressive,unbooked, good, long time player)
G $340 (old Dr., calls with weak hands, no book, passive, sucks out, bets big hands big)
I $320 (LAG, reckless, but scary due to aggression)
J $300 (unbooked, moderately loose, will make follow up bets on good hands)

The point is: I am the only one really working, and working hard, at improving my game. Yet, there we all are bunched up at the top.

I am truly afraid to let them know how hard I have worked at improving. There is no question that several or more of them would either laugh or shake their heads and say: “You mean you have done all that work and you aren’t running away with this thing?”

I don’t think I am dumb: I ran two successful businesses, won the weak State of Mississippi Chess Championship three years running, have made extremely successful investments since getting out of business, and have a grim determination to win.

I always thought that my business experience which, in one way or the other, was about controlling risk, would translate directly to poker, i.e. knowing which hand to invest in, when the investment turned sour, or when to negotiate harder (betting and/or bluffing).

Oh well.

Natcheztoo