Q&A #111: Committment With Tournament Stack Sizes

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Many tournament players make a consistent mistake. They focus too much on conserving their chips and preserving their “tournament life,” and in doing so they leave big pots hanging out to dry.

I see it frequently when I play tournaments. Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. The blinds are 200-400, and the big blind has 2500 chips. Someone raises to 1200, and the big blind calls. So the pot contains 2600 chips, and there is 1300 remaining. The flop comes KJ6 and the big blind bets out something like 500 into the 2600 pot. The preflop raiser will moves all-in for 800 more, and the big blind folds.

No matter what two cards the big blind held, he misplayed the hand. He disregarded the principle of commitment. I rarely see a mistake this flagrant in cash games, but in tournaments I see it relatively commonly because many players attach too much importance to “staying alive.”

Before I continue, I’ll briefly describe the principle of commitment. The basic idea is that once you’ve committed a significant fraction of your stack to a pot, you’re usually right to put the rest of it in rather than fold. Since you’ve built the pot up, you’ll typically be getting nice odds on the rest of your cash: 2-to-1, 3-to-1, or even better. Even if you figure to be an underdog in the hand, you’ll usually have enough equity to justify tossing the rest of your stack in and reverting to hope and pray mode.

What’s a “significant fraction of your stack”? A decent rule of thumb is one-third, but as with everything in poker, that number is flexible.

So how should the big blind have approached the above hand? The preflop raise was to about half his stack. Realistically he had two ways to approach the hand: put all his money in or fold immediately. All lines that involve putting in some extra money and then folding are bad. The initial preflop raise was enough to commit him to the hand, and therefore he needed to back up his play with his entire stack.

If he chose to play the hand, he had essentially two reasonable lines: reraise all-in preflop, or call the preflop raise and then move all-in on the flop no matter what. Why is calling the raise and then bet-folding the flop so bad? Because if the preflop raiser is decent, the flop raise conveys essentially no additional information beyond what the original preflop raise implied.

Here’s what I mean. Any time you open a pot preflop, you should always check out the big blind. Is the blind tight or loose? What are the stacks? In this case, the preflop raiser can see that the big blind’s stack is tiny. If the big blind chooses to defend, both players will be committed to the hand. So even before putting the initial 1200 raise in, the preflop raiser should have mentally committed himself to 1300 more if the big blind defends. Therefore, the fact that the preflop raiser actually puts that 1300 into the pot conveys no additional information. We already knew he would do that when he raised preflop!

In general I’d recommend the big blind just stick all the money in preflop and see who wins. The other option – calling preflop and then betting all-in on any flop – is designed to try to exploit other players’ instincts to fold and “save some chips” when they should be committing to the hand. It can be a handy ploy, but if you’re just getting used to this idea of committing to a pot, I’d suggest you just commit early and be confident you did the right thing.

Whew. That was a big intro. Now for today’s question from Natcheztoo on the message board:

Back again. I didn’t mention stack sizes, but when playing I am developing the discipline to try and always be cognizant of them. In SNGs, when getting close to the bubble or on the bubble, I always, for instance, try not to make a bluff or move against one of the stacks that can really damage or eliminate me.

Last night I had this happen in a tournament:

Blinds 200 - 400. We started the tournament with 4000 chips. I have about 3600 chips. Oh, shit, I think I see it already by just writing it down here. But it wouldn’t have made much difference in the outcome of the hand.

I get A-Qo and am first to open the pot in middle position. I raise 3x to 1200. Hijack calls as does the button. I am depressed. Hijack and the button’s stacks are slightly larger than mine.

The flop is 10,10,8, with no flush cards. I am first to act and C-bet 1200 into the 3600 chip pot. Maybe not enough, but with a larger bet and the possibility that I might have to fire again, failure means being left without enough chips to maneuver. I’d be left with just all-in and pray.

The Hijack calls and the button goes all-in. I fold, the hijack calls with 9-9 and the button turns over trip 10s and wins the hand.

I am left with 1000 chips and when I go all-in with Kh9d in late middle position with an unopened pot I get three callers. I made kings and queens, but a full house won one pot and a Big Broadway straight won the other. Toast again.

Now, it occurred to me that with 3600 chips and blinds of 200 - 400, my only move must have been all-in. Even if the hijack had folded the button would have called (I know his play pretty well) and I would have been toast anyway.

The point is: it is amazing that you can sit there and pretty much play correct ABC poker, but one good hand (whether or not I bet 3x or go all-in) can doom you. I guess that is just poker.

What do you think about my play in this hand? I am embarrased that, in the heat of battle, I let M and 10xBB mandate slip upon me without noticing.

As you can probably tell by now, I agree with Natcheztoo’s conclusion. He should have simply moved all-in preflop rather than raised only to 1200. The 1200 raise represents 1/3 of his remaining stack, and therefore by putting it in the pot with a hand as strong as A-Q, he has committed himself.

However, the 1200 raise size was not necessarily that bad. As I said before, as long as you’ve committed yourself to getting all the money in, sometimes it can be best to move all-in preflop and sometimes it can be better to save some money to try to fold out players on the flop.

I really dislike Natcheztoo’s decision to bet 1200 on the flop and then fold to a raise. I think he should have simply pushed all-in on the flop. If someone flopped a 10, so be it. If not, he will at least have six outs on the turn and river to try to catch up if called, and he could easily also get called by a hand like AJ or a straight draw that he’s ahead of. The stacks are far too short for him to assume that the raise indicates that he’s drawing effectively dead to trips, and if he’s not drawing dead, then he should definitely call getting more than 8-to-1 on his money.

Finally, I agree completely with Natcheztoo’s observation that in tournaments, often everything hangs on the outcome of one hand. It’s the nature of poker tournaments. The structures usually jack the blinds and antes up fast enough to force everyone to be relatively short stacked. Once most people are playing 10 big blind stacks, playing a hand preflop usually also commits you to the hand. Just remember that your “tournament life” isn’t really all that important. You play a lot of tournaments, and busting out of one is no big deal. You just go play another. If you make the best plays and commit to the right hands, you’ll end up with the biggest prize kitty. So what if you bust out of a few tournaments you could have hung around in just a little bit longer by “saving chips”? The goal isn’t to hang around, it’s to win the big prizes, and you’ll give yourself the best shot to do that by finishing what you start.

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5 Responses to “Q&A #111: Committment With Tournament Stack Sizes”

Eric Blade
@ Fri Jul 25, 2008 02:16:58 PM
1

“Pot Committed” is one of the greatest fallacies passed on from player to player to player to player to … and so on, for generations.

Natcheztoo
@ Sun Jul 27, 2008 10:50:44 AM
2

Eric,

Please explain your comment. Are you arguing for or against Ed’s commitment threshold?

All,

Ed said:

“You play a lot of tournaments, and busting out of one is no big deal. You just go play another.”

Here, Natchez, Mississippi, it is a big deal unless you are playing online. The tournaments are few and far between.

Yesterday, in one of them at the final table, with the blinds at 400 and 800, I had 5800 chips and went all-in in an unopened pot with A-2s. I was called by K-Qo, and doubled up.

A few hands later with the blinds at 800 - 1600, in late MP, there were the blinds and one limper when it got to me. Three players behind. I got A-Qo, one of my better hands of the day, and with 11,500 I pushed. The BB, the chip leader, slowly and agonizingly stacked up chips trying to decide whether or not to call. Finally, he did, everybody else folded, he turned over pocket jacks, and flopped a full house. I made a straight on the river. Toast.

I wonder if, while he was deciding, I had looked at him and said, “I can guarantee you one thing: You don’t have Aces this time,” whether it would have made any difference.

I saw Helumth talk Dwan out of calling on High Stakes Poker’s The Cash Game. Phil had made a big bet on the end with middle pair — nines. While Dwan was thinking Phil said, “It’s not just nines baby.” Dwan finally folded the better hand.

Back to commitment thresholds:

Going all-in with the 11,500 (above) was all according to Ed, M, and the 10xBB theory.

This morning at coffee with a four or five of my less committed, less learned poker playing friends (here I refer to them as Poker Zombies), I recounted the hand and asked them how they would have played it.

Most said they would have made a bet, and folded on the flop if they missed. I said, “If you made any reasonable bet, say 3x (4800) you wouldn’t have many chips left (6700)if you missed.” To a person they replied, “Oh, I have come back won tournaments with chip stacks like that.”

The aggravating thing is: they are correct. I have done it myself when an all-in left me with a low M chip stack. Two or three lucky all-ins with decent cards, if you get them, and you are back in the middle of it.

My A-Qo all-in, if I lose, left nothing but a sad, dejected retreat.

That said, I will keep playing that hand the same way.

Natchez

Todd
@ Sun Jul 27, 2008 06:37:25 PM
3

…snip…
Here, Natchez, Mississippi, it is a big deal unless you are playing online. The tournaments are few and far between.
…snip…

It seems like you play quite a few by your posts. Don’t you play in some local series?

…snip…
Going all-in with the 11,500 (above) was all according to Ed, M, and the 10xBB theory.
…snip…

Doesn’t Stinger do some SNG videos on CardRunners? I would guess he advises lots of folding early and then ICM based push/fold decisions once the blinds get high. You bust out a lot on some hands that look sort of crazy, but the math and theory behind it is sound. The most winning players of that style of game tend to play that style. My money is on those guys vs. well, most everyone else.

…snip…
Most said they would have made a bet, and folded on the flop if they missed. I said, “If you made any reasonable bet, say 3x (4800) you wouldn’t have many chips left (6700)if you missed.” To a person they replied, “Oh, I have come back won tournaments with chip stacks like that.”
…snip…

Boy, I don’t think that is very good advice. You have a top 10 hand that likes to see all 5 cards. I’m delighted when I get my chips in with a hand that good.

You are much better off getting all you chips in with a hand as good as AQ than folding away 1/3 of your stack and getting them in after blinding down a bit with a worse hand. You may not see 20 more hands at that point. AQ rates to be the best one. Maybe you can gable with another hand, but you have your best gambling hand right now! Get in there and gamble.

Natcheztoo
@ Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:20:08 AM
4

How can I learn how to play poker when I can’t even figure out how you guys do that …snip… thing? I am going to do it manually…

…snip…

It seems like you play quite a few by your posts. Don’t you play in some local series?

…snip…

We have a weekly local series, but it is, for all but three or four players, a chance to get together for “fun” (I only have fun when I win no matter what it is that I am doing.) One of the few good players said: “We don’t play poker here. We play cards.” The buy-in is a paltry $15.00, and except for the “bragging rights” which, among this group, are significant since they all are or were mostly successful businessmen. We award a championship trophy at the end of the year. Two years ago I was second. Last year I won. This year I am in second place, $10.00 behind the leader. These are the players to whom I refer as “Poker Zombies.”

Besides this weekly tournament I have played in 36 “real” tournaments dating all the way back to 2005. I cashed in 18 out of the first 27 tournaments. Since then, I am demoralized; I have gone 9 straight tournaments without cashing.

I give up on the …snip…, …snip…!

Yes, I am watching the SNGs on Cardrunners. And I tend to play just the way you describe his advice above.

When quoting what the “Poker Zombies” said when I told them about the hand did not mean that I pay any attention to what they say. It is conversational and a way to reinforce my view of their poor play. Sometimes in conversation like this I glean whether one or another has been doing any study to improve their game so that I will know what I am dealing with.

I also keep a log of their type play and update it from time to time if there is any change. For instance, one player who I used to classify as LAG has now been reclassified to TAG.

I place no credence in what they say about playing a hand unless it accidentally correct. And I never tell them that it is.

Thanks for taking the time to comment. I am working at this, but it is very frustrating. I have virtually quit doing other things in my life that were rewarding to study chess: reading, composing music, writing short stories, and watching anything on television other than the news and poker.

Natcheztoo
@ Mon Jul 28, 2008 02:20:17 PM
5

One more comment about the weekly series of tournaments that awards a trophy at the end of the year.

The “Poker Zombies” are the players there (virtually all of them) that “don’t know that they don’t know.” They don’t care either. Other than watching poker on TV they have done little or no work on their game.

One guy said, “I don’t need the book. I can watch the game and people and figure it out.”

What is disturbing to me is that nine of us out of the 20 members in the club are within $70.00 of each other after 56 tournaments! Except for me none of them have worked at poker.

A $370 (good, aggressive but unbooked)
B $360 (Natcheztoo) TAG but impotent at poker of late
C $350 (LAG, no book, bets, bluffs, calling station)
D $350 (cash game player, one of best in this group, makes a lot of moves, no book)
E $350 (loose passive, calling station, no book)
F $350 (tight aggressive,unbooked, good, long time player)
G $340 (old Dr., calls with weak hands, no book, passive, sucks out, bets big hands big)
I $320 (LAG, reckless, but scary due to aggression)
J $300 (unbooked, moderately loose, will make follow up bets on good hands)

The point is: I am the only one really working, and working hard, at improving my game. Yet, there we all are bunched up at the top.

I am truly afraid to let them know how hard I have worked at improving. There is no question that several or more of them would either laugh or shake their heads and say: “You mean you have done all that work and you aren’t running away with this thing?”

I don’t think I am dumb: I ran two successful businesses, won the weak State of Mississippi Chess Championship three years running, have made extremely successful investments since getting out of business, and have a grim determination to win.

I always thought that my business experience which, in one way or the other, was about controlling risk, would translate directly to poker, i.e. knowing which hand to invest in, when the investment turned sour, or when to negotiate harder (betting and/or bluffing).

Oh well.

Natcheztoo

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