Q&A #104: What Is A Thin Value Bet?

If he checkraises the river I likely call because he’s not repping anything that makes any sense except maybe T8 or 99.

But the fact is that bets like this really rarely get checkraised. I would expect to get checkraised in this situation well less than 10% of the time.

I see where you’re coming from… but I sort of disagree.

I bet because I think I have him beaten more than half the time that he calls. But I do think he has me beaten with some frequency… I just think that he flat calls (rather than checkraises) the bulk of his range that beats me.

Checkraising really polarizes his range. This river card really bricks out a lot of draws, so I find calling the off-the-wall checkraises in spots like this to be profitable because it does often turn out to be a busted flush draw or even a hand like a tiny pocket pair often enough. Note that I’m usually getting odds on the call (2-to-1 in the case of a pot-sized checkraise) so I don’t have to be good even half the time to call.

But overall I don’t find the off-the-wall river checkraise to happen often enough to bake it too much into my bet sizing decision. Mostly I’m just trying to maximize my value when called, and if I induce the occasional checkraise bluff, then great.

Some players are aggro enough that I specifically try to induce bluff raises out of them, but in this case I’m basically just betting for value with the idea in mind if I get checkraised, it’s a bluff often enough for me to call usually.

If you want to argue that it’s not “thin” then fine. But I know for sure that a lot of players take the free showdown here instead, and I think betting is pretty solidly the better play.

Joshua,

I’m definitely not always betting second pair/blah kicker for value on the river. The exact board and action up until the river is what gives me the read that it’s a good bet.

My opponent limped and called a raise. Then he called a J74 board two-flush board. What hands can I put him on? Well, any flopped pair (J, 7, or 4), often pocket pairs (especially less than jacks due to the lack of preflop raise and check-call on flop). Also flush draws obviously. And straight draws with hands like 65 or T9. Some loose players will peel the flop with a hand like A9 or KQ or KT, especially with a high club.

Turn card is a J. My opponent check-calls again. Now I would expect some of the weak peels to fold, but perhaps some of the weaker pairs to call again. Also probably flush draws and 65 call, but maybe a hand like T9 folds to the 2nd barrel. He might also checkraise with a jack now.

The river pairs me, and my pair now beats all the 7’s and 4’s he might have been calling the flop with. (Note I also beat 97 because my 8 plays.) Also all the small pocket pairs. I also naturally beat most flush draws (except stuff like Ac9c and Kc9c).

Overall I think his range is weighted toward hands I beat rather than hands that beat me. Many of those hands I’d expect him to just fold, but if he’s been calling along with a pair, I think there’s a good chance he’ll go ahead and make the call. After all, from his perspective, the flush draw and 65 just busted out also, so I could be betting a busted draw myself.

Also, if he does have a hand like Ac9c or Kc9c, I’d expect him just to call my bet, not checkraise me. I’d expect a checkraise only from the really strong hands like a jack or 99 or T8 like I said. But some of those hands (especially a jack) I would expect to have heard from already in the form of a turn checkraise or a river bet.

So I would expect a river checkraise rarely with the occasional rivered monster (T8 or 99), with the occasional jack or flopped set that he decided to get tricky with, and with some smattering of busted hands as a desperation play. Overall I just wouldn’t give him credit for having enough legitimate checkraising hands in his range to fold getting 2-to-1 or whatever he would offer me.

So the river bet (and the decision to call a checkraise) are strongly dependent on what I what I think my opponent’s reasonable hand range given the way he’s played the hand thus far. I don’t know I’m good.. he definitely has hands in his range that beat me… but I think overall I get called more often by worse hands than by better.

Finally, I believe strongly that you can’t always worry about getting outplayed. If my opponent knew me perfectly, then he could definitely get a ton of value out of me by checking a jack three times and checkraising me for value. But the fact is, in practice people simply tend not to play that way. (And, regardless, if someone made that drastic a strategic adjustment against me because I’m aggressive, I’d notice immediately… as soon as I got checkraised for value in this hand, for instance… and adjust to their trappy play.) I have 50k hands in my PT database now, and I filtered them a bit to look for cases where someone dogged a good hand like that on three streets and then checkraised me for value on the end, and I couldn’t find even one example. People just don’t play that way. If they start to, then I’ll have to adjust.

Anonymous,

I agree, it’s not that thin. But it’s thinner than most people will go, which is why I like the example. It’s a fairly clear bet, but one that many people don’t make, which makes the example instructive, IMO.

Ben,

Wow, you asked questions that could only be fully answered by a book.

No, it’s not always best to make a value bet when you think you’re ahead. You have to be ahead of the range of hands your opponent will CALL with. That’s a big difference. Oftentimes your opponent could easily have a lot of busted draws in his range, but he won’t call your value bet with them, so don’t count those. Think of the hands your opponent might call with that you can beat and then compare that range to the range of hands your opponent could have that beat you.

The number of busted draws comes into play when your opponent is betting (or raising). If there were a lot of draws on the flop, and your opponent was calling along, and then all the draws bricked out on the river and suddenly your opponent bets or raises… there’s always that possibility that he’s decided to turn his busted draw into a bluff. This is going to be more likely to occur if you’ve played your hand in a way that suggests some amount of weakness. That perceived weakness could be checking a street or maybe making a small-sized bet on the river (or at some other point).

As for what bet size you should make… that really depends widely. How strong is your hand… how much are the hands that you’re counting on calling for the bet to be profitable going to be willing to call? Will a small bet induce a bluff-raise against this player or not? Honestly you should read my book No Limit Hold’em: Theory and Practice because there’s a lot of discussion about bet sizing in there.

Position also makes a big difference. When you’re in position, you’re choosing between betting and checking it down. Out of position you can’t guarantee that it’ll get checked down, so the strategy changes a lot.

thomas,

I didn’t leave out the results just so people could see that.. yes… you will get called down by pocket fives with some frequency. Though your point about the “not thin” crowd is well taken.

I don’t like to talk about plays as “standard” or not since everything is situational. I bet this turn sometimes and I check it sometimes. It depends on the player and the recent history. And just because someone likes to call light doesn’t necessarily mean that I won’t bet again. For instance, I had 10 outs against his hand, and obviously I can get value if I hit them. And perhaps if an overcard to the jacks comes I can make a bigger bet and get him off the hand. Unless your opponent is in “I’m calling down no matter what” mode, often having them call your flop and turn semibluffs light isn’t a big deal because you can get them off the hand later and just win a bigger pot.

I dunno about your assessment of my opponent’s hand distribution. My 10% number might be off, but I don’t think my intuition about his raising range is. Do I love getting raised? No. But my experience is that goofy checkraises on the river on busted boards tend to be bluffs well often enough to call.