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Q&A #104: What Is A Thin Value Bet?

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Value betting well on the end is a critical skill in nearly every form of poker. It’s also one of the skills that players tend to pick up later on in their learning process. I know many players who otherwise play a decent game, but who check down too many good hands on the river. If you don’t value bet enough hands, you have two problems:

  1. You, fairly obviously, miss value on some of your medium strength hands.
  2. Your opponents perform better on their light flop and turn calls. This effect is less obvious but still important. Say I have a weak hand out of position. I think it might be the best hand, but I might be wrong. I check and call a bet on the turn. If you don’t value bet well, then that call may be profitable because I can expect you to miss value on a lot of your better hands. But if you do value bet well, then I might be forced to fold the turn for fear that you’ll outplay me on the end. When I’m forced to fold my marginal hands on the flop and turn for fear of getting value bet, your flop and turn continuation bets when you’ve missed will be more profitable.

So value betting is important. But what, exactly, is a “thin” value bet? That’s today’s question from Ash.

I’ve had some confusion lately when reading articles discussing thin value bets. Does “thin” pertain to the size of the bet (i.e., small relative to the pot), or does it pertain to the strength of your hand (e.g., a medium pair)? Obviously understanding the implications thin value betting plays in a larger strategy hinges on getting the definition right. Hopefully you can shed some light on this. Also, if it’s not a big deal, after defining it could you give an example of thin value betting in a typically loose 1/2NL game?

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22 Responses to “Q&A #104: What Is A Thin Value Bet?”

Bruno
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:17:44 AM
1

Ed,,,,

I’m not sure why you are calling a 1/2 pot bet on the end a “thin” value bet. I think what really happened here is you kept betting your gutshot and pair(ing) outs and your “weak tight calling-station” opponent never showed any aggressiveness to take the pot away from you. You were lucky to hit on the end, and, if he was of any skill he could have taken you off the hand on the river….

Ed Miller
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:24:24 AM
2

If he checkraises the river I likely call because he’s not repping anything that makes any sense except maybe T8 or 99.

But the fact is that bets like this really rarely get checkraised. I would expect to get checkraised in this situation well less than 10% of the time.

Bruno
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:40:30 AM
3

If that’s the case Ed, then your bet on the end isn’t a “thin” value bet. You are completely sure that your hand is good, and you said you are calling any reraise he makes. You aren’t “thin value betting” then. Wouldn’t you want him to push all in (assuming your correct read) so that you could call with your pair of nines, “knowing” that you have the best hand? If my read is that good on the opponent, I will do everything in my power to have him commit as much of his chips as he is capable of doing to the pot. If I’m familiar with the opponent enough to know that my 9s are good there, I’ll have some reading of what his “thresholds” are, and those are what I’ll attack with, not a value bet: I want all his chips in the middle….

Ed Miller
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:51:51 AM
4

I see where you’re coming from… but I sort of disagree.

I bet because I think I have him beaten more than half the time that he calls. But I do think he has me beaten with some frequency… I just think that he flat calls (rather than checkraises) the bulk of his range that beats me.

Checkraising really polarizes his range. This river card really bricks out a lot of draws, so I find calling the off-the-wall checkraises in spots like this to be profitable because it does often turn out to be a busted flush draw or even a hand like a tiny pocket pair often enough. Note that I’m usually getting odds on the call (2-to-1 in the case of a pot-sized checkraise) so I don’t have to be good even half the time to call.

But overall I don’t find the off-the-wall river checkraise to happen often enough to bake it too much into my bet sizing decision. Mostly I’m just trying to maximize my value when called, and if I induce the occasional checkraise bluff, then great.

Some players are aggro enough that I specifically try to induce bluff raises out of them, but in this case I’m basically just betting for value with the idea in mind if I get checkraised, it’s a bluff often enough for me to call usually.

If you want to argue that it’s not “thin” then fine. But I know for sure that a lot of players take the free showdown here instead, and I think betting is pretty solidly the better play.

Joshua
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:56:08 AM
5

Without a read that lets you know that you’re beat, would you always make that river bet? I’ve been playing for about two months now at microstakes and I think I’m giving away a lot of value by not making that bet when I think I’m ahead but don’t have a solid read. And how often in that case would you call a check-raise?

AKQJ10
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:16:14 PM
6

Good article, Ed. You’re absolutely right — I would find betting nines in the example hand to feel a bit scary, because of the admittedly remote chance that my opponent might do something tricky to face me with decision that I’ll likely get wrong, folding to a c/r.

But away from the table, I can see a few reasons why I’m thinking wrong (mostly reiterating your article):

*I’m overestimating the probability of a c/r with a better hand. Less than 10% sounds about right. Most people are going to value bet trips or better here, afraid of being checked down. And virtually no one is going to check-raise a better hand less than trips, for value or as a bluff.

*I’m probably folding too often when that occasional c/r comes. At the table I’d consider that an easy easy fold against anyone but a crazy bluffer. Yet you’re 100% right: a c/r on a better hand would really be pretty rare.

There are also a couple of corollaries from applying higher-level thinking:

*If I’m against someone I know value bets thin, even though they may be correct to do so against most opponents, I can make them sorry by check/raising often with monsters, with junk, and even occasionally with a mid-strength hand such as A9 or TT in the example. (NLHE:TAP talks about treating a mid-strength hand aggressively at those times when your opponent is likely to infer you can’t possibly have a mid-strength hand.)

*If I’m against someone smart enough to know that I’m following Ed’s advice, then I probably still value bet thin occasionally, but do it less often. Now I also shade down my value bets with monsters, to give cover for those times I want to value bet less with a mid-strength hand. Unsurprisingly, thinking opponents take away much of the value of my hand!

So it comes down to the root of most everything in poker: Know thy opponent.

Anonymous
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:23:03 PM
7

wat, this bet isn’t even thin

Ed Miller
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:30:04 PM
8

Joshua,

I’m definitely not always betting second pair/blah kicker for value on the river. The exact board and action up until the river is what gives me the read that it’s a good bet.

My opponent limped and called a raise. Then he called a J74 board two-flush board. What hands can I put him on? Well, any flopped pair (J, 7, or 4), often pocket pairs (especially less than jacks due to the lack of preflop raise and check-call on flop). Also flush draws obviously. And straight draws with hands like 65 or T9. Some loose players will peel the flop with a hand like A9 or KQ or KT, especially with a high club.

Turn card is a J. My opponent check-calls again. Now I would expect some of the weak peels to fold, but perhaps some of the weaker pairs to call again. Also probably flush draws and 65 call, but maybe a hand like T9 folds to the 2nd barrel. He might also checkraise with a jack now.

The river pairs me, and my pair now beats all the 7′s and 4′s he might have been calling the flop with. (Note I also beat 97 because my 8 plays.) Also all the small pocket pairs. I also naturally beat most flush draws (except stuff like Ac9c and Kc9c).

Overall I think his range is weighted toward hands I beat rather than hands that beat me. Many of those hands I’d expect him to just fold, but if he’s been calling along with a pair, I think there’s a good chance he’ll go ahead and make the call. After all, from his perspective, the flush draw and 65 just busted out also, so I could be betting a busted draw myself.

Also, if he does have a hand like Ac9c or Kc9c, I’d expect him just to call my bet, not checkraise me. I’d expect a checkraise only from the really strong hands like a jack or 99 or T8 like I said. But some of those hands (especially a jack) I would expect to have heard from already in the form of a turn checkraise or a river bet.

So I would expect a river checkraise rarely with the occasional rivered monster (T8 or 99), with the occasional jack or flopped set that he decided to get tricky with, and with some smattering of busted hands as a desperation play. Overall I just wouldn’t give him credit for having enough legitimate checkraising hands in his range to fold getting 2-to-1 or whatever he would offer me.

So the river bet (and the decision to call a checkraise) are strongly dependent on what I what I think my opponent’s reasonable hand range given the way he’s played the hand thus far. I don’t know I’m good.. he definitely has hands in his range that beat me… but I think overall I get called more often by worse hands than by better.

Finally, I believe strongly that you can’t always worry about getting outplayed. If my opponent knew me perfectly, then he could definitely get a ton of value out of me by checking a jack three times and checkraising me for value. But the fact is, in practice people simply tend not to play that way. (And, regardless, if someone made that drastic a strategic adjustment against me because I’m aggressive, I’d notice immediately… as soon as I got checkraised for value in this hand, for instance… and adjust to their trappy play.) I have 50k hands in my PT database now, and I filtered them a bit to look for cases where someone dogged a good hand like that on three streets and then checkraised me for value on the end, and I couldn’t find even one example. People just don’t play that way. If they start to, then I’ll have to adjust.

Ed Miller
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:31:43 PM
9

Anonymous,

I agree, it’s not that thin. But it’s thinner than most people will go, which is why I like the example. It’s a fairly clear bet, but one that many people don’t make, which makes the example instructive, IMO.

AKQJ10
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 01:13:43 PM
10

Ed,

Another salient question came to mind: At what stakes do you think it’s reasonable to find lots of opponents who will call your river bet with a wide range of hands less than nines-bad kicker?

In my limited experience at FT 100, I think you’ll find opponents bad enough to call three bets with a seven or pocket fives here, but you have to really look for them — using effective data-mining/HUD.

Jordan
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 02:30:12 PM
11

I learned the system on my own. I know some wild stuff. Your not better then me. I just dont try to win.

thomas
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 02:48:53 PM
12

Nice article Ed!

I still have two questions:

- How standard is the turn bet for you? Would it be wrong to give up here?
- If you expect a river check/raise only 10%, then it’s an easy fold right? I’d happily believe that 10% is only a jack / a weird overpair / a better 9 / 99.

thomas
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 02:51:14 PM
13

Oh, and please leave out the results (or even give him A9 or whatever), otherwise all comments will go ‘wow not thin at all’ :]

Steve Boyd
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 05:34:12 PM
14

>> but I think overall I get called more often by worse hands than by better.

Ed can you actually work this out on the fly?

If so I want your brain inside my skull ;]

Joshua
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 05:55:31 PM
15

Thanks for breaking that down further. Truly appreciated.

KittyLiquor
@ Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:31:46 PM
16

My problem is that I remember that 1 time in the last bajillion hands that I value bet thin and got CR/shoved. I called and got stacked. I can’t stand not see the showdown if I think my hand may be good.
Like I said “My Problem,” gotta work on that!

Ben Attenborough
@ Fri Apr 11, 2008 06:17:05 AM
17

Wow, I would never have thought to make a value bet on such a seemingly weak hand, let alone to call a raise. I guess this is a good example of how important hand reading, knowing your opponent and being confident about your feelings are.
I often find rather than making thin value bets I am making thin calls and getting beaten.
Is it always best to make a value bet when you think you are ahead – and what sort of bet size should you make it, do stack sizes and position make a difference?

b.c.
@ Fri Apr 11, 2008 07:59:59 AM
18

Kitty, when you bet, you are either taking a strategy called “bet/fold” or “bet/call” (or bet/reraise). Because to play properly you have to consider in advance your particular opponent’s range of reactions to your actions.

Thus, when you bet with the intention to fold, you should usually follow through with that unless either the raise is so small or something else really suspicious pops into your mind at the moment of execution.

Next time you bet the river, think “I am bet calling” or “I am bet folding this” or “I am bet 3betting” and see if your results improve.

Ed Miller
@ Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:04:10 AM
19

Ben,

Wow, you asked questions that could only be fully answered by a book. :)

No, it’s not always best to make a value bet when you think you’re ahead. You have to be ahead of the range of hands your opponent will CALL with. That’s a big difference. Oftentimes your opponent could easily have a lot of busted draws in his range, but he won’t call your value bet with them, so don’t count those. Think of the hands your opponent might call with that you can beat and then compare that range to the range of hands your opponent could have that beat you.

The number of busted draws comes into play when your opponent is betting (or raising). If there were a lot of draws on the flop, and your opponent was calling along, and then all the draws bricked out on the river and suddenly your opponent bets or raises… there’s always that possibility that he’s decided to turn his busted draw into a bluff. This is going to be more likely to occur if you’ve played your hand in a way that suggests some amount of weakness. That perceived weakness could be checking a street or maybe making a small-sized bet on the river (or at some other point).

As for what bet size you should make… that really depends widely. How strong is your hand… how much are the hands that you’re counting on calling for the bet to be profitable going to be willing to call? Will a small bet induce a bluff-raise against this player or not? Honestly you should read my book No Limit Hold’em: Theory and Practice because there’s a lot of discussion about bet sizing in there.

Position also makes a big difference. When you’re in position, you’re choosing between betting and checking it down. Out of position you can’t guarantee that it’ll get checked down, so the strategy changes a lot.

Ed Miller
@ Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:10:13 AM
20

thomas,

I didn’t leave out the results just so people could see that.. yes… you will get called down by pocket fives with some frequency. Though your point about the “not thin” crowd is well taken. :)

I don’t like to talk about plays as “standard” or not since everything is situational. I bet this turn sometimes and I check it sometimes. It depends on the player and the recent history. And just because someone likes to call light doesn’t necessarily mean that I won’t bet again. For instance, I had 10 outs against his hand, and obviously I can get value if I hit them. And perhaps if an overcard to the jacks comes I can make a bigger bet and get him off the hand. Unless your opponent is in “I’m calling down no matter what” mode, often having them call your flop and turn semibluffs light isn’t a big deal because you can get them off the hand later and just win a bigger pot.

I dunno about your assessment of my opponent’s hand distribution. My 10% number might be off, but I don’t think my intuition about his raising range is. Do I love getting raised? No. But my experience is that goofy checkraises on the river on busted boards tend to be bluffs well often enough to call.

Larry
@ Sun Apr 13, 2008 11:14:36 PM
21

Curious– what would you have done if he bet into you on the river, say a 3/4 pot sized bet?

Anonymous
@ Mon Apr 21, 2008 05:08:37 PM
22

I like your riverbet Ed, im trying to improve my game with value bets on the river. I often have a correct read on someone but decide to “safe play” it only to find out my instinct was correct. Great potential to increase winnings through good reads in position.

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