Q&A #66: Short Stack Strategy — Adjusting to Different Stack Sizes

First. More short stack. Thanks.

Hi there Ed,

I’m not sure if it belongs here or in a question thread, but since it’s about short stack strategy I figure I’ll post it in this latest installment on the topic.

It’s concerning another author’s (not a NPA afaik take on playing AKo on a 9d7s4d board with a 20 bb stack behind you. I can post the link if you like, but didn’t think it would be proper to do so outright.

Anyway, I followed a line of reasoning that to me sounds so good that I can hardly believe it. I’m sure there is something wrong with it and hope someone can set me straight.

Here goes:

>>I think the problem is with the 3x bb preflop bet. With a short stack of 20 bbs, it might be better to raise to 5x bb. This will define your opponents’ calling ranges a lot better and is in keeping with your previous installment, where you postulated that the tighter your own raising range, the larger your raises should be.

Now, let’s assume opponent will reraise with 99+/AQ+ only (since you’ve made a rather large raise). He’ll call with 77-88,A7-AJs,K9-KQs,Q9-QJs,J9-JTs,T9s,A9-AJo and KJ-KQo. This is pretty loose, but for this 9-high flop it is something of a worst case scenario, since he’ll hit top pair a lot more often than he would if he omitted the X9s type hands and A9o.

Now let’s assume he’ll always check the flop, intending to check-raise all-in with any pair, good draw or overcards+gutshot. Specifically with 77-88,A7s,Ad8d,A9s,AdTd-AdJd,K9s,KdTd-KdQd,Q9s,QdTd-QdJd,J9s,JTs,T9s and A9o.That’s 55% of the time.

So it’s checked to you. Now what happens if you go all-in every single time? In 55% of the cases you will win outright, gaining 10 bbs in the process. In the other 45% of the cases you will win 25% and lose 75% of the time approximately. Since there will be 40bbs in the pot after you are called, you will lose 5bbs on every such occassion (on average your share is 10 bbs, and the all-in raise costs you 15 bbs).

So:

100 hands:
55x +10bbs = +550bbs
45x -5bbs = -225bbs
net = +325bbs

Now, let’s change opponent’s calling range to 77-88,A9-AJs,KT-KQs,QT-QJs,JTs,AT-AJo and KJ-KQo, which to my mind seems a little more reasonable for the average player. Now you will be ahead more than 70% of the time on this particular flop. The net result will be even higher.

It gets even better when you consider that:

1. You will play ALL your hands like this, so your opponent has no idea whether you have AA,AK,KQ,99 or whatever.

2. You might hold one of the remaining diamonds, giving your opponents less odds and yourself extra outs.

3. This strategy makes for far easier decisions, so you will be able to multitable far better.

To my mind, these are all arguments for raising 5x bbs preflop and going allin on the flop with overcards when the board is all lower than a T. But my reasoning might be faulty or my math off, in which case I’d be very grateful if anyone could set me straight.

Woops, should have added that I am in late (steal) position and first in, and that opponent is in the bb.

I don’t understand why with a 40bb stack you should raise less preflop if you’re stil playing preminum hands. Shouldn’t you continue to raise as much as you think can get away with but play a lot more careful on the flop? If you miss the flop you are pretty much done with the hand unless you are in position and the other players have checked. If you hit, try to get it all in by the turn.

is there something wrong with strong raises preflop with a medium stack (40bb)?

Thanks Ed, though I’m currently not moving in on every flop with overcards against even just one opponent. The obvious example would be a 987 mono where I am not holding a flush card. Also, on a big-little-little flop I bet half the pot regardless of my hand. If I get action, I’m done unless I can beat at least middle pair top kicker.

This is probably pretty basic board/hand reading stuff. I mention it because I think a lot of people underestimate the educational value of a short stack strategy. You get to see a lot of showdowns and therefore hands your opponents will play for 4-5bbs preflop and 5-15bbs on the flop. Studying that info, you will notice that it soon becomes a lot easier to put your opponents on a narrow (and correct) range of hands.

I know you intentionally did not go into flop decisions too deeply in GSIH, so that we could try to learn for ourselves. But is there any chance you will one day? Or… dare I say it out loud… might your upcoming book hold some answers?

And since I’m off topic anyway, I’m still intrigued by your comment a couple of months ago that the SSS might be even more profitable at 6max. Ah, how those VPPs would accumulate if only those damn blinds wouldn’t eat me alive…

By the way, do anyone of you think that the short stack strategy might make poker sites or card rooms modify buy-ins or make some other adjustments? Just buy making the minimum buy-in something along the lines of 50BB, would make it much more difficult to utilize this strategy. Not impossible by any means, but much harder than a 20BB buy-in.

Other measures like not allowing to buy-in for shorter than you left the table are of course impossible in live games and certainly difficult to arrange in online sites, too. Nevermind the inconveniences it would have on the players.

I’m personally not “against” short stack strategy, but I feel that one real problem with it is the big possibility of messing up a hand that two deep stacks would have had. I suppose the deep stacks could just ignore the flop all-in of a short-stack, though it would indicate much about their representive hands, but a hefty reraise by a short-stacker might scare a deep stack player going against another deep stacker.

I think they make too much money in rake from short stackers 12-tabling to change anything. Besides, if they wanted to, they probably would have done so a long time ago.

IMHO, there is nothing unethical about short stacking. It’s just part of the game. We give up something (the ability to win 100’s of bbs with the nuts), they give up something (the ability to play certain hands that rely on implied odds). Besides, if I sit down with 50 bbs and lose half my stack to a beat, we have the same situation…

I do wonder at the negative comments I receive at the tables sometimes… funny how an über-fish with a full stack thinks he has the right to mock your every move just because he has more money in front of him. Ah well, best remedy against that is to compliment them on their superiority, then push your AA against their T8o.

I think I’ve finally cracked this short stack thing. 8BB/100 over 6000 hands.

Expect something in the tip jar soon. Do you take Neteller?

Hi Ed,

I was just curious about how a short stack strategy would work in a small game in a card room that takes a time charge, like Foxwoods. The 1/2 blind game there has a $60 minimum, a $300 maximum, and a $5 per half hour time charge. That’s a pretty hefty time charge. It seems especially large when playing a short-stack, as I would think that you take down fewer pots (I could be wrong as this is slightly made up for by the fact that there isn’t much room for folding hands such as top pair to big bets on the turn and river).

My question is this: Could it still be profitable to buy in for this 30BB amount or should I consider buying in for a 50BB amount of $100? I’m not yet comfortable enough to buy in for 100BB or more.