Short Stacks In Tournaments, ICM, and Playing With the Antes

Great article Ed. I’ve always wondered if the basic assumption of the ICM was accurate. How accurate do people think it is for normal tournament situations? I suppose you could find pretty easily: just measure it. There’s plenty of tournament data out there. Has anyone ever heard of that being done?

“It pays to know when [ICM] works and when it doesn’t.”

Help us out here, Ed. How accurate is ICM for various relative stack sizes? What models work better in situations where ICM breaks down? Or how can we adjust ICM to make it more accurate in different situations?

I love SelfMade’s idea, but I really doubt there’s enough available data in live tournaments for it to work. Maybe if we had a good hand history database of complete single-table sit-n-goes.

Thanks Ed for answering this. I thought I had caught you in a contradiction but you managed to slip out!

So, now all we need is the quantum theory modification of ICM for small stack sizes. Are you up for it?

I love it when people apply quantum mechanics to poker! It actually forms part of the basis of my models for razz, but obviously that doesn’t apply here. My comment on Ed’s analysis of where the ICM breaks down for very small stacks is that it’s an excellent point, but isn’t it just a mathematical representation of something that we already know? One of the first things we learn as tournament players is that your last chip is worth more than any of the others in your stack because it assures you a chair. In his example, Ed is basically calculating the value of the hero’s last chip. It gives him a 25% chance of having a stack of T600, so to him it’s worth T150 instead of T100 in this spot.

Ah of course, thanks Ed. Short stackers listen up.