Hand Discussion #8: Tiny Top Pair With Position

I only Read Prof NL hold’em once through, so I am still shaky on target SPRs. But his preflop raise seems too much…….and I believe this puts his SPR at around 9 (675/75) with a drawing hand (and not a low pocket pair). I honestly don’t remember if this is good or not, but I think u want the SPR higher with a drawing hand so you can keep greater implied odds. I like a preflop raise to $10(SPR of 23) or #15(SPR of 15), not #25. But i could be totally wrong about this as I don’t remember the target SPR for a drawing suited connector against a tight/straightforward player or the loose bad player. Maybe 9 is ok?!…..i would shoot for something higher, but I am still learning. So i need some help on whether or not the pre-flop raise is correct.

When the flop comes, you are not committed yet NOR should you commit to this hand as it isn’t what you were for looking for but you’ll take it. The straightforward players small bet (1/5 the pot…..15 into 75) says one of several possible things to me…..1) flush draw/blocking bet 2) possibly small overpair (like 99-jj) or 3) eight with a better kicker than yours or possibly an underpair. I don’t like our Hero’s raise here, as it puts him past 1/10 of his chips and he is raising like he is going ot commit to this hand. Unless you’re certain the villain is on a flush draw, i don’t like it. However, the raise gives the impression that our Hero has a large overpair…….simply because he raised before the flop. If the pot had been smaller, our hero could have raised to protect his hand and NOT have gotten past the 10% mark yet.

I believe the tight/straightfoward players check on the turn signifies true weakness and our hero could probably have stolen the pot here with a big bet…..even if the villain did have an overpair.

The Villain’s turn bet is bizzarre. I think its an obvious call……and still signifies a flush draw. I think its successful though in what he was trying to do…..a blocking bet. perhaps a big raise by our hero again could steal this pot?…although i don’t think its worth the risk. I think he mistakenly built a bigger pot than he should have pre-flop.

The river check by our hero i like, as the villain could have been hoping with a check raise for his now-made flush.

I will respond with any corrections i may have to my comments once i go over the target SPRs again in the book!

Sorry, in my comment above the paragraph about the villain checking the turn is irrelevant, as he bets 15. ignore that paragraph.

Preflop I think the raise is a decent play… with deep stacks holding suited connectors I’d certainly like to build a pot against a bad player when I have position.

Big Blind’s call probably represents a couple of high cards or medium pair, although it’s difficult to read anything into it. I’d expect higher pairs to reraise to get heads up, as the bad limper will almost certainly call given your statement that a $25 raise is routine.

Big Blind’s bet on the flop is strange… putting $15 in a $75 pot against two players. He’s certainly not pricing out any draws, and on the face of it probably represents a very weak blocking bet. At this point I’m thinking he’s probably holding a couple of high hearts, most likely the nut flush draw. He most likely doesn’t have a pair; I don’t see any decent player here building a pot with only a pair, out of position against two players and flush/straight draws on the board… heads up this may not be as reliable an indication as with two of us, although I would still consider this move with only a pair unusual. Given the only non-heart is the deuce no flush draw/pair combination makes sense either. Trips are unlikely as it requires the case 8′s, most ‘tight’ players would probably lay down 22 or 44 pre-flop, and in any case trips are also vulnerable to a 3rd heart. Other oddball combinations such as Ah3h are somewhat distant.

Don’t know if the limper called, I assume he did which really doesn’t mean much considering we think he’s ‘bad’ he could be fishing with just about anything. The pot is now $105 back to the hero… I would have stuck in a stronger pot sized raise here and made my opponents show some serious strength if they want to continue the hand. My analysis tells me I’ve probably got the best hand right now, and I want to use my position to maximum effect. If the villain calls that raise, I’m pretty much done with the hand although I’m extremely curious about his holding and will make a mental note to piece what his small out of position bets mean in the future. I also like to raise big with position in hands like this to help disguise the times when I really am very strong…

The villain’s call seems to confirm my suspicions about the high hearts, he may optimistically (and correctly) think he has as many as 13 outs and the implied odds may be large (particularly if the ‘bad’ player stays in), although I also need some information regarding what way the limper is ‘bad’. If the bad limper is passive and loose, the villain is probably calculating a certain percentage of the time the limper will come in as well and make the pot odds more attractive. If the limper is wild/overly trappy, the villain is showing some serious strength considering the limper may be prone to reraise.

In any case the limper folds, the turn hits, and the villain again makes a very weak bet. I’m not concerned with the deuce… it seems a very neutral card and if I was behind I’m still behind, it’s very unlikely my opponent was playing with a 2 and just improved to trips. If the villain is playing with a flush draw, it could be very scary to him as now he could make it and still be unsure of where he stands.

In any case the hero is now in a tougher spot. I’m certainly at least calling, what about raising? The pot is getting larger and the hero’s not entirely sure where he stands. Again this reinforces the argument for raising larger on the flop, the information extracted would have been more ‘pure’ and I’d have a better idea of whether the villain is strong and sucking me in or weak and trying to see a card for cheap. Given that I hadn’t raised as strongly on the flop as I would have liked, I’d probably go ahead and stick in a half-pot sized raise here, expecting at least a 50% chance I’m taking the pot down right now and letting go of the hand should he call or re-raise.

In any case I certainly think checking the river is the right move. With the flush out there, I don’t see any possible holding calling that I can beat, I’m not sure many hands I do beat will fold, and there’s always the slim chance he’s been on something like a busted straight draw and now I’m good.

Thoughts and comments on my analysis are more than welcomed!

PF, I think a limp or raise in this range is fine. With a loose bad limper, goosing the pot in the hopes of taking his entire stack with a lucky flop is fine, but so is getting in cheap.

Flop: I really hate hero’s raise size. He either needs to raise bigger or call. This middle-of-the-road raise is the worst possible option. Loose-Bad (LB’s) $15 bet into a $75 pot is very weak. Had LB bet around the size of the pot, a fold may well be correct, but fold is clearly wrong to a 1/7th pot size bet. With position, I think call is fine. But if you raise, you have to RAISE.

Raising $45 into a now $150 pot (offering limper 4:1) is silly-weak, giving correct odds to draw to the flush, which is a very possible hand for him.

TURN: This is a good card for you and the BB’s super-weak $15 bet into a ~200 pot is weird. He’s seen you raise these similar bets before (namely, on the last street!) so if he’s savvy, this could well be a trap. It could also just be a very weak bet. If you raise, you really have to commit a ton of chips to a pretty weak hand, and I’m unwilling to do that. I like the call.

RIVER: This is an awful card for you. Your hand has some kind of value, so I’m happy as can be to check-behind and see who wins. Betting here is pretty crazy, I think.

I think raising pre-flop is ok. Sometimes.

The flop I’d just fold. 2 people are interested and has something. I have one shitty pair.

If I were to raise the flop I’d raise more.

I meant to write above “two people are interested and one of them has something.”

Well first I think it is easiest to put the tight straightforward player on hand.

If he assume the other player is coming a long I imagine he may call perflop with something like AK and all PP’s. He may also be in there with some SC’s since he expects the loose player to call and they will have a favorable SPR for a hand like that(9).

On the flop he bets 1/3 of the pot. This probably is a blocking bet on a flush draw, a set trying to get paid, or a weak top pair like 98. When he is raised he is getting nearly 3:1 immediate odds and he may be getting 4:1 if the loose player calls so he can call with a draw. He would have probably put in a 3-bet if he has a hand like a set.

On the turn sets and draws are still in his range. He could have a real monster like quads and is just trying to get raised but that is a pretty small part of his range. I haven’t played a lot of live but a lot of time tight players will make really small bets with big hands instead of trying to build a big pot. I would think top pair is kind of out now because I don’t know why he would be so small on this turn with a weak top pair.

On the river when the flush card gets there and he checks – that is a little funny. Is he trying to get a flush to bet? I would think he would bet with a set or a flush so I am not sure what is going on there.

Now from hero’s point of view:
I am fine with the preflop although against a loose bad player, who I assume will call too much, I would tend to limp here and try to win a huge pot off of him. If he is the type that will fold though(which it ends up looking like he is) then the raise is good.

On the flop he ends up with a decent hand but certainly not one he wants to go AI with. The tight player looks like he has a flush draw but he should be ok with keep the pot small and the loose player in. I like just calling here. If he is beat by a set it keeps the pot small with his modest hand. Given that he raised I think he should have raised more. His raised just served as a pot sweetening raise that gives a flushdraw great odds. The raise should be something like 100 more or so however this builds a big pot with a hand that doesn’t want one and lunges him into the commitment threshold.

On the turn if he thinks this guy has a flushdraw he should raise at this point planning to fold to a 3-bet. He doesn’t want the flush draw seeing the river that cheaply but if he gets 3-bet he can escape still. So, if he raises to say 125 or so he could force the flush draw to fold and still leave himself room to get out of the pot to a 3-bet.

On the river he is behind to a lot of hands that play this way including full houses and flushes. He could effectively represent a flush here with a bet but I don’t think he gets any better hands to fold since most of the better hands are at least a flush. So, I like this check.

on flop I’d raise $60 (making it $75) and on the turn I’d raise around $200 or a little less. This is assuming he has two big suited cards (flush draw).
I’m not very much sure but it looks like calling the flop may be better, but then we get prepared to folding to a half-pot turn bet from the straightforward player or to raise him if he makes another small bet: then I’d raise to $75.

Preflop: I like the idea of the raise from the button with position more often than not, but based on the comments that it would be called in this game as easily $15, I think I would have to increase it to by at least 50%, up to $35 or $40, something where only serious players, or seriously bad players come along for the ride. I want the raise to be enough for limpers to consider folding. Otherwise limp, if the raise can’t get the job done.

Flop: Assuming that the initial raise was $25, and there is now $77 in the pot. A $15 bet and call makes it $107. At this point I have to take a minute or two to consider ranges. The Main Villian is likely to have a pretty good hand. Middle Pair up to JJ, suited overcards, including AhXh. He has made what looks like a blocking bet and could have quite a few outs to beat me, or could be already ahead. The Loose Bad player could have just about anything, including a limped monster like AA or KK. (I hate players that play that way. Players like that are so hard to accurately put on a hand.) My hand is small, top pair, bad kicker with a board that is much more likely to improve for one of my opponents than for me. I am behind a middle pair already. I call, and try and keep things as small as possible. The raise amount used seemed ineffective. Most draws were priced in, especially suited overcards.

Turn: Another small bet. It is very suspicious, because you raised his last blocking bet of the same amount. I am giving more consideration to the middle pair, and slightly less to the overcard flush draw. The 2 probably didn’t help the Villian unless he is holding A2s in hearts or already hit a set. Call is fine.

River: The flush draw just came in. I am happy he checked, another bet would be hard to call, but the check has given me an opportunity if I trust my read. I think he has a middle pair (based on his tight, straightforward description), not the flush. Based on either scenario, I am beat, and can only win with a bluff. I might be able to bluff if he has the middle pair, but not the flush. I have put in about 100 into the pot. I can bluff about another 100 without commiting, which I think is going to be the amount needed. I’d like to know my table image, and how often a big bluff here would get called down, but without that knowledge, I make a big bluff of 100. The villian folds.

I think hero played this hand just fine. Why build a big pot or risk getting blown out of the hand with a marginal one pair hand? Using position to call the turn bet and check behind on the river is just fine.

I can certainly see the argument to raise it up on the turn — bet size of 100 or 125 seems appropriate — to try to take the pot down right there. You’d be representing the same hand you’ve advertised preflop and on the flop: a set, overpair, or even the nut flush draw + trip deuces. If this second-barrel of a bluff was called or raised, I’m either done with the hand or I might fire a third barrel if a scare card comes on the river.

To sum up, I don’t have a problem with the line taken by the hero here, but you can certainly argue for a much more aggressive line.

Preflop I like a smaller raise. If $15 is playing like $25, I prefer the smaller bluff. I think it gives more room to maneuver and makes the c-bet a bit cheaper. With the $25 bet, we’re looking at getting 1/2 our stack in if we follow up on the turn or have to bluff the river. So, that extra $15 costs us more like $100 for no real benefit if I read the table description right.

On the flop, the weak lead is a little bit weird. Generally, I would stick in a pot sized raise to lift him off it. But, given where the pot is, I don’t know that I want to get 1/3 of my stack in. If I had raised $15 pre-flop, I would stick in a pot sized bet. At this point I’m happy enough to keep the pot smaller and use my position. I could have the best hand here and it’s not likely to get a lot better. I’m going to call this flop. Given that the hero bet $60, I think we’re sort of screwed going forward. The pot is around $200 and any bet is a tough decision for us and any bluff is a really big part of our stack.

The turn isn’t a great card for us. He keeps making these weird little blocking bets. If we want to test him, now is the time. There’s $210 in the pot and we’re being offered being laid a great price. Still, it’s so cheap that, again, I’m going to smooth call and keep the pot small. He either has a draw or a weak pair. It’s possible that he has a monster, but I don’t think so.

The river is just awful for us. But it may also be very scary for the villain. It’s he’s sitting on TT or JJ, he beats nothing. If I had left myself more room to maneuver, I would surely bluff this board. Again, I think our over-sized pre-flop raise and poorly sized flop raise has taken a river bluff out of my toolbox. I’d like to be able to stick in something like $150 as a bet that was around 3/4 pot size. At the current pot size, we’d have to stick in quite a bit more than I’m comfortable with. I’m checking it down.

I just started nl, but I tend to play these hands the same way.

when villain calls pf we have to put him on a speculative hand like a pp, AXs, or a suited connector most of the time. AK and TT-QQ or KK may go ahead and try to play for stacks preflop, and Aces will either do the same or will slowplay a bit, looking for good spots to get it in postflop.

when the tag puts out the small bet into the crowd on the flop, it looks like he’s trying to set the bet size with a weak made hand or a draw. This flop should miss hero’s range a lot, so he could be looking to win it outright. When hero raises it looks like an overpair, and the tag’s call should indicate that he has at least a big draw or an overpair himself.

when he bets the turn again I read it as a draw that’s still trying to block, but I hate risking my stack to find out if that’s right, so I tend to play the same – calling the small bet and looking to showdown cheaply vs what is either a weaker overpair like 99-JJ or a draw that I won’t pay off.

I generally agree with DonkStar.
With a midlde pair & weak kicker, you don’t want to get called on you flop bet.
Then the hero simply calls a weak bet on the turn. This has the effect of telling the opponent that hero doesn’t have a premium pair.
Question is, does the Qh on the River present an opportunity to win the pot? If you just call, then what are your chances? My general thought is that if I raise post-flop with top-pair & bad kicker, and I get called, I’m thinking I’m beat (though in this case, a flush draw is possible, but the Qh on the river means, I’m beaten on that front as well). But, would the opponent check the River with a made flush? Would he expect me to bet on the river after I simply called a small bet on the turn? A $100 bet by the Hero could mean a holding of AQ or KQ or a made flush. The hero’s betting pattern would match such a result. My thought is that checking the turn would mean a less than 50% chance of winning. But if I bet the River, the opponent may fold his middle pair (which would beat hero’s 8′s).

Todd,

I like the size of your bluff better than my initial choice. 3/4 of the pot is more difficult to call, and still does not commit the hand in the even of the check-raise.

Happy birthday, kid. Your birthday is an important day in my year too.

I’m confused by those who think you should check the flop… put ourselves in the villain’s shoes…

A bad player limps in, which of course doesn’t mean anything… then a known good player makes a ‘standard’ (for this game) pre-flop raise. What does he have? Well, since he’s good and the stacks are deep, he’s going to play tight in early position and loose on the button, so we’ve got to put him on a relatively wide range of hands… any pair, high cards, any A-x (particularly if suited), connectors (suited or unsuited) and maybe even one gappers. We know if we call, the ‘bad’ player is likely to call as well, so he could be discounting our pot odds, but on the other hand may possibly reraise if he’s trying to be ‘clever’.

Knowing that what can we call with? We’re tight, so we’re going to fold all of our trash. We play relatively straightforward, so with our best hands (10′s and above, possibly AK), our goal is to get heads up (particularly as we’re out of position), which isn’t likely going to happen if we just call, but maybe we’ll do it once in awhile to disguise our hand strength. Middle pairs we might just call and see the flop for cheap, although sometimes we’ll vary the play and raise hoping to take the pot down now. Small pairs we’re throwing away, particularly as we’ve still got one player to act… we might not mind playing them against one bad player in position, but getting paid off from the good player is probably not going to happen. We might decide to play connectors to mix things up, as position isn’t as important for those types of hands, as well as suited high cards although we’ll have to be cautious with those if we hit one pair.

That’s about it… Now the flop: The pot is now $75 (we’ll assume the $2 get raked for simplicity). With a flop of 8h4h2c we bet $15. What sort of hand would do that?

1. Pairs (Pocket Pair or 8-X): If we started with a pocket pair that board almost certainly didn’t help us… we threw away the 44 and 22 and the hero holds one of the 3 remaining 8′s. The board is ratty, although it could have hit the bad player. It’s likely it missed the hero, but if it didn’t the hero certainly could have hit him hard, a four flush, trips, and possibly an open end straight draw are certainly in the picture. There’s a strong chance our pair is the best hand now, but we’re out of position and it is extremely vulnerable to plenty of scare cards. We can grit our teeth, check and keep the flop small, or bet strong and hope to take it down now. A $15 bet is only going to invite a call from the bad player, and if the hero has any kind of a draw at all, he will get 7-1 odds and be able to call the turn on expressed odds alone. So we’re not likely to bet $15.

2. High Hearts such as AhQh: All in all a pretty good flop. We’re drawing to a strong flush/nut flush. If we pair on the turn/river there’s a good chance we’re ahead there as well. Semi-bluffing is possible, in which case we will bet strong: 2/3 pot or greater. On the other hand, that builds a big pot, we’ll be out of position, and if called are a huge dog if we don’t improve. So seeing the turn for cheap would be nice… unfortunately if we check the hero on the button may sense our weakness (he’s one of the better players after all) and make a bet we can’t call. So maybe we stick out a cheap bet… after all we could take the pot down now, which is good, we don’t risk alot of chips, and if we do hit on the turn we’ve won a bigger pot. (note that I don’t agree with this arguement, but it’s one I’ve heard players make before) So we’re either going to semi-bluff for 2/3 the pot or more, put out a small “feeler/blocking” bet, or check.

3. Two pair or better: Not very likely holding at all. If we’re playing 8 4 out of position for a raise, there’s no way a good player could classify us tight. But for the sake of arguement let’s say we’re holding something like 8 4, 2 2, or the case 8′s. Our first thought is “jackpot” and our second should be “how can we extract the most money from our opponents?” Unfortunately we’re still vulnerable to hearts. Betting big will most likely scare off our opponents, but then again the bad player might bite off, and somebody might decide we’re on a steal. Checking is an option, giving the bad player and the hero a chance to hang themselves with a bet. But that also risks a free card to two opponents with a four flush out there. How about betting $15… that doesn’t even deny our opponents on a draw expressed odds, although on the upside at least one opponent is likely to call and make us a little more money… So we’ve got several options in this case, although betting large, betting small, and checking. Personally I would vary my play up (although offering 6-1 odds to two opponents with a made hand I would almost never do), but against two opponents and a four flush on the board would be inclined to bet to price out the draws and hope I could take someone with a pair along for the ride.

So all in all there aren’t many circumstances that fit the $15 bet… but the only one that seems to fit a likely holding and make any sort of sense points towards a blocking bet.

Back to the hero’s shoes, I’m extremely vulnerable to overcards or a heart. I also can’t rule out straight draws from the bad player, so even another low card won’t look good. My hand analysis tells me I’m very likely to have the best hand right now and unlikely to improve. Best hand that’s vulnerable to me calls for a strong do-or-die pot sized bet. If that gets called, I’m done with the hand, so I’m really not “commited” to the hand. I agree with the SPR concept, but in this case believe arguments along those lines are misplace; using them in this situation will lead towards weak/passive play.

Thoughts?

Happy birthday, Ed.

I think some of the problems that we have in this hand are down to our pre-flop raise. 87 sooted is a good hand to either A) see a cheap flop and hope to win a big pot or B) Steal with in late position and have some back up. A sort of semi-bluff if you like.

Now from what I understand preflop raises are being called quite readily in this game. Therefore I’m going to assume that we don’t have much fold equity. This means we can pretty much remove the bluff equation out of this hand.

If we do flop a hand, it is most likely to be a small pair. By raising preflop we have created a situation where we are going to have to play a pretty big pot with just 1 small/medium pair.

This would not necesarily be a problem if we had lots of fold equity. But with a loose-bad limper in the pot I’m not sure that we are going to be able to steal many pots. By limping we increase our implied odds considerably which is exactly what we want against a loose-bad player. And by keeping the pot smaller it will be far easier to play a small/medium pair if that is indeed what we do flop.

I know our main villain turned out to be the tight player. However, when we first enter the pot we don’t know this yet, therefore our main target is the loose-bad player. Against this loose-bad player I think we are better off by just limping.

happy birthday! may all your wishes fullfill!

Just wanted to add that I think several posters are missing the point of the PF raise (AFC, DonkStar, others). Hero is not bluffing at the pot. He fully expects to get called and doesn’t mind. He is trying to build a bigger pot with a speculative hand so he can stack his loose 140xBB stacked opponent if he gets a terrific flop. It is a pot-sweetener raise (at least I think it is!)

AFC, you are right that most of the time we “hit” the flop, we will have small pair/no kicker. But, unlike limit poker, NL is not a “most of the time” game; it is “once or twice a night” game when you have the chance to stack your opponent.