Hand Discussion #7: My Thoughts

“Mistake equity” sounds interesting.

Can you elaborate on that term a little bit.

“Mistake equity” – yes an interesting term. I used to do the same thing in chess though I didn’t have a name for it.

Years ago I was regularly playing chess against some other guys at work. These guys were about 3 or 4 skill levels below me, as I was a serious tournament player in those days. Yet I had trouble beating them.

After a few games I finally realized that they weren’t giving me trouble, I was giving myself trouble. I was giving them far too much credit, and playing much too cautiously.

So I began making moves that would not have been the “best” move against players of my level, and started winning those games easily and regularly. Even on those rare occasions when they made the “right” response to my risky move and got the advantage, they usually weren’t able to carry their advantage all the way to the win.

It’s funny how there can be so many parallels between poker and chess. On 2+2 I have noted that some poker players are also fairly good chess players.

Ed Miller,
So If you raise before the flop like you suggested, and then get bet into on the flop…….are you still willing to just smooth call the flop bet or does the bigger pot justify you now going for a big raise?

I mean in general the bets sizes will change so this question is a bit ambiguous…..but generally if you even flop a modest top two pair in a pre-flop raised pot you should be looking to win it right then and there correct?……especially on a drawing board.

Just wondering! thanks for your post!…..this site is great!

Ed,

And if you were raised back would you release the hand?

Thanks as always for the great content, both to Ed and to the commenters.

I like flat calling in this $0.02-$0.04 game. Raising shuts out the goofy hands and will tend to either win immediately or get you heads-up against the flop bettor. That’s ok to do, especially if he’ll call a big flop raise and/or a big turn bet with a draw or other weak hand. But calling leaves those big bet options available for the turn and gives some of the other players a chance to stick around and make a mistake. It also gives you a better chance to get drawn out on, but you have position which will protect you somewhat from making bad decisions.

Moreover, smooth calling on the flop makes your hand look like a draw. Since the flush is the most obvious draw, it’s rather less likely that a tricky player is going to feel frisky enough to bluff OOP on the turn, believing that you might be the one with the flush!

When I’m playing at small stakes, I’m looking for my opponents to make big errors. I’m willing to expose myself here and there to getting exploited by someone who’s clever, because most people aren’t clever, and they can make some whopper mistakes.

That’s a great general outlook, and helps me think better about some of these pot control issues.

Protecting a good hand against draws is so ingrained in some of us who came to NLHE from limit hold ‘em, especially small stakes. So it’s taking me a while to internalize the idea that I might choose not to protect in order to induce bigger mistakes on the turn.

Presumably my standard line (barring a great read) after raising preflop, smooth-calling on the flop, is:

(Pot size: ~18 BB, eff. stacks 81 BB)

No flush card: standard bet or raise. If called, probably check behind on river?

Flush card: Fold to a bet, bet if checked to, fold to c/r. Certainly check behind regardless of river.

Is that right, or too passive about extracting value from top two?

Ed,

I totally disagree with your conclusion about mistake equity.

Ok this hand is definitely a preflop raise. This is shorthanded, we have position, the pot has been juiced up and raising here is likely to take down the pot. If not we can use our positional advantage on later streets to make it difficult for our opponents. I agree with that so calling is where the mistakes comes.

Ed, you say we may gain extra equity by flat calling the flop. Ok we may do, I actually doubt that, but I am certain raising this flop has a higher EV play than calling does. By calling we are not putting money i nthe pot when we are ahead and we are not giving the chance for our opponent to call with worse given we are far ahead of his range.

Villain is definiteive calling a large majority of the range on the flop we beat, and his 3betting range we probably have beat too. The flop is where we want to get it in. Set yourself up for that and raise raise raise flop.
This is why it is important to raise preflop so it can make all-in situations a lot easier postflop.