Comments on: Hand Discussion #6: My Thoughts http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html Training poker players into professional players Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:32:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Bob http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-12004 Bob Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:19:27 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-12004 I vote for a push but there is a problem with the play. This hand is all about the Utg limper. If we try to put him on AA or KK here's where it all gets tough. When the button re-raises UTG limper has to think to himself if he just calls so will I.Is he is waiting for me to push and then go heads up, maybe, but I doubt it.For the UTG limper it's all about a safe flop. When the flop looks safe for him, lets say 7s 8h 2s it may not be.The Button may be holding 7 8 or 9 s 10s thinking he's in with two hands containing aces. Conversely, if the UTG is in with an inferior hand it's also a bad play to call a raise and a re-raise.When the under UTG limper doesn't fold it becomes a guessing game for us. I don't usually guess when playng poker but my guess would be to move in. I vote for a push but there is a problem with the play. This hand is all about the Utg limper. If we try to put him on AA or KK here’s where it all gets tough. When the button re-raises UTG limper has to think to himself if he just calls so will I.Is he is waiting for me to push and then go heads up, maybe, but I doubt it.For the UTG limper it’s all about a safe flop. When the flop looks safe for him, lets say 7s 8h 2s it may not be.The Button may be holding 7 8 or 9 s 10s thinking he’s in with two hands containing aces. Conversely, if the UTG is in with an inferior hand it’s also a bad play to call a raise and a re-raise.When the under UTG limper doesn’t fold it becomes a guessing game for us. I don’t usually guess when playng poker but my guess would be to move in.

]]> By: Binions http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8914 Binions Tue, 26 Jun 2007 14:59:47 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8914 I can't read. There was 230 in the pot and it was 225 for the EP limper to call. He was getting 2:1 and needed 33% equity. Assuming AA-KK + AK, he had 38%. Terrible fold. I can’t read.

There was 230 in the pot and it was 225 for the EP limper to call. He was getting 2:1 and needed 33% equity. Assuming AA-KK + AK, he had 38%. Terrible fold.

]]> By: Binions http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8913 Binions Tue, 26 Jun 2007 14:55:59 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8913 Can't get my old password to work, and the new one doesn't work either. Anyway . . . You have virtually no fold equity at these stacks in live Houston underground games, but your equity when called is higher than tighter games. The QQ player made a mistake. There was 162 in the pot, and 250 to call the raise. He needs 38% equity to call (250/660). Assuming your range is only AA-KK + AK, he has exactly 38%. If you have JJ or AQs or worse (ie bluff) in your range, he had an overlay. Can’t get my old password to work, and the new one doesn’t work either. Anyway . . .

You have virtually no fold equity at these stacks in live Houston underground games, but your equity when called is higher than tighter games.

The QQ player made a mistake. There was 162 in the pot, and 250 to call the raise. He needs 38% equity to call (250/660).

Assuming your range is only AA-KK + AK, he has exactly 38%. If you have JJ or AQs or worse (ie bluff) in your range, he had an overlay.

]]> By: JJS http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8889 JJS Sat, 23 Jun 2007 22:37:46 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8889 John, Heed what threads13 is saying! A while ago I put together an Excel spreadsheet which simulates what happens to a bankroll under typical win rates and standard deviations found in poker. You can still find the thread where I described it if you search back in the Message board on this forum. Basically I discovered that if two people have the same win rate, it's possible for one to end up with twice the winnings of the other even after 2 YEARS. So after 5 months it is totally possible that normal variance can make your win rate seem 4x bigger than it really is. John,

Heed what threads13 is saying! A while ago I put together an Excel spreadsheet which simulates what happens to a bankroll under typical win rates and standard deviations found in poker. You can still find the thread where I described it if you search back in the Message board on this forum.

Basically I discovered that if two people have the same win rate, it’s possible for one to end up with twice the winnings of the other even after 2 YEARS. So after 5 months it is totally possible that normal variance can make your win rate seem 4x bigger than it really is.

]]> By: threads13 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8888 threads13 Sat, 23 Jun 2007 20:46:00 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8888 John, It always possible that you have been running pretty well in addition to them being mediocre. Poker can be fickle. John,

It always possible that you have been running pretty well in addition to them being mediocre. Poker can be fickle.

]]> By: John http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8883 John Fri, 22 Jun 2007 23:27:15 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8883 Meant 25-30 dollars...12-15BB Meant 25-30 dollars…12-15BB

]]> By: John http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8882 John Fri, 22 Jun 2007 23:16:36 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8882 I guess I'm just going overboard, I assumed the people at my place of choice were pretty bad overall, seeing as we play mostly 1/2.....I have pretty much beaten the game there for the last 4-5 months at about 25-30BB profit per hour (on avg). Only 3 losing sessions in that time. (I only play 1 time a week) I guess my conclusion was that they were just pretty bad rather than to stroke myself over it. I guess I’m just going overboard, I assumed the people at my place of choice were pretty bad overall, seeing as we play mostly 1/2…..I have pretty much beaten the game there for the last 4-5 months at about 25-30BB profit per hour (on avg). Only 3 losing sessions in that time. (I only play 1 time a week)

I guess my conclusion was that they were just pretty bad rather than to stroke myself over it.

]]> By: threads13 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8881 threads13 Fri, 22 Jun 2007 22:43:17 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8881 John, We all agree that it wasn't a good play by the EP. Ed was jut saying that a lot of players generally don't like to call big AI raises PF with QQ, and it is rightfully so. I considered that it was possibly in his range at this point. I didn't think it was highly likely, I admit, but I did definitely have it in my head. Maybe the players you play with aren't AS bad as you think or maybe they are worse than you. Ht summed it up pretty well. Yes, it was a bad play, but I don't think you should be too surprised. John,

We all agree that it wasn’t a good play by the EP. Ed was jut saying that a lot of players generally don’t like to call big AI raises PF with QQ, and it is rightfully so.

I considered that it was possibly in his range at this point. I didn’t think it was highly likely, I admit, but I did definitely have it in my head. Maybe the players you play with aren’t AS bad as you think or maybe they are worse than you.

Ht summed it up pretty well. Yes, it was a bad play, but I don’t think you should be too surprised.

]]> By: Pawel http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8880 Pawel Fri, 22 Jun 2007 21:25:04 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8880 I think the guy with QQ should have pushed and not called. A little off-topic... I just checked the Wikipedia page about Ed... WOW! I'd never think that I'm two years older :-) I think the guy with QQ should have pushed and not called.
A little off-topic… I just checked the Wikipedia page about Ed… WOW! I’d never think that I’m two years older :-)

]]> By: Ed Miller http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html/comment-page-1#comment-8879 Ed Miller Fri, 22 Jun 2007 20:50:43 +0000 http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/no-limit-hold-em/hand-discussion-6-my-thoughts.html#comment-8879 Anton, A lot of live players play pocket pairs for too much money preflop compared to the stack sizes. It's like they look at something like 99 and think, "Well, I can't just fold it, but it's not good enough to go all-in with, so I guess I'll call." I think it's the most common 3-bet cold-calling hand I see. Anton,

A lot of live players play pocket pairs for too much money preflop compared to the stack sizes. It’s like they look at something like 99 and think, “Well, I can’t just fold it, but it’s not good enough to go all-in with, so I guess I’ll call.” I think it’s the most common 3-bet cold-calling hand I see.

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