Hand Discussion #6: My Thoughts

Well there you go. I think the the EP was a VERY WEAK PLAYER. I pointed to a point earlier, that with an original raiser behind, he can’t call with a possiblity of folding afterwards. What a terrible play by him.

Good explaination of your play, again I think alot more people would have been right on (and at least half were) if you hadnt completely left everyone in the dark on EP’s skill level.

A lot of players assume an unknown is weak until proven otherwise, I like to have a bit more of a feel before I go pushing after a play like that- as I said, Either a monster or an Idiot.

And here I thought you were setting us up to fall for the either/or thinking trap….

John, and likely others: Apparently you haven’t played live 2/5? I think its fairly safe to assume that everyone at your table is borderline retarded until proven otherwise. Almost everyone at the average 2/5 game is a weak player. Even the best players in these games typically have big leaks and are easily exploitable.

The way the hand played out, EP almost never has a monster here. If he limp-shoved here, I would fold in an instant. But the limp call screams something like a small to medium pocket pair. If I was taking bets before Ed told us the hand, I would have guessed TT.

I guess you’re right, I havent played 2/5 live. but the games I play in are 1/2 and 2/4, not that much differant, I thought. I’ve never seen anyone THAT passive with QQ in EP.

Maybe I CAN go pro……..hmmmm lol.

It just takes an “extra special” kind of stupid to play QQ like that…

Thanks Ed. Great hand discussion.

So, per your last comment, as you still shipping it in online? You are still relying on the fold equity to be profitable. It has been my experience that you have much less of that in this sort of hand online. When I played this hand online, I still shipped it in and would continue to do so, but I am already clicking “add chips” before the second caller rolls them over.

Ed,

It changes a bit though when you say he opens with a raise, because he has let people know a bit more about his hand by open raising there, and he is not coldcalling a raise/reraise. you, in that case, have not shown as much strength, as you called instead of raised, meaning he might have worried less about you REraising then.

But in this instance, its like he tried to set a trap without the intention of ever “pouncing”. Look, I dont play in casinos, I play in a grey area club with maybe 70 poker players, I know them all and only 10 would be considered “medium players” and of the 60 weak to terrible players left, none have ever played a hand as strong as QQ that weakly PF. Never. (at least and showed it.)

Your change to the order of things DOES change the outlook of the hand.

Would YOU ever play the 3rd/4th best hand in HE pre-flop that way?

But Ed, QQ is an excellent hand.

Also, you say call 15-20….he was calling 14BB’s PF, with an intention of FOLDING to a big re-raise? i dont know, I’ve pretty much conditioned my self not to ever call in that situation if there is even a SLIM possibility I would fold to another raise. With 5 bucks in, if you dont have the stones to call a raise, just get out.

I dont mean to come off as stuck up on this, it just seems insanly spineless to me. Its JMO

Not to beat a dead horse and I agree with most of what you said and considering the players you go up against that strategy was great, but you last example is still much differant.

He raises to 4x you raise to 20x. No real investment there and more sensible play OOP in Higher stakes makes sense.

This situation with a guy calling a raise/reraise for 14x BB and then folding seems to me to be infinitley more complicated and/or ridiculous.

Again, I’m no pro, and far be it from me to tell YOU about the game YOU play in, I just have never seen something like that.

You’re right, I’m not having this conversation if you say 10-10.

Apparently, the $0.05/$0.10 game on PokerStars is tougher than the live games you play…

I mentioned that with QQ, a decent EP would have pushed after the 3-bet knowing that a move from ED was possible if he just called. In fact, that’s what happened, which was a perfect trap for AA/KK. Apparently, EP was an idiot and screwed it all up.

Maybe I should move to the US and turn pro just like John

Thank you….I was beginning to think I OD’ed on crazy pills last night…

I agree with the statement Ed made about how he got himself in trouble with QQ. However, John, I wouldn’t make the assumption that this player was trying to set a trap. He might just be a weak player.

Not to speak for him, but I think Ed was trying to say with his second example that there are plenty of times where it is a standard play to let go of QQ preflop after a couple big raises have happened behind you – especially against predictable players. Most players who 4-bet are only doing so with AA/KK.

I would like to reiterate an earlier statement of mine that if Ed had open-raised and the button had raised behind I could see laying this down more often. I still thinking call is bad. The more dead money there could be the more I like the push.

Right. Thats my WHOLE point. Its the Call thats TERRIBLE, and this guys is to me UNBELIEVABLEY stupid.

What I said before we knew what hand he held was that either it was a trap or the guy is an Idiot.

It turns out he was a colossal moron, when he call/folds QQ. Fold is fine, push is fine, call/call is weak, but call/FOLD was so bad I havent the words.

John,

I really think your analysis is way off. I think his most likely hand here is usally a small-mid pocket pair, or occasionally somthing like AQ that just won’t let it go. Would playing 99 this way be either a monster or increadibly stupid?

I agree that he played this hand very badly. I think you uderestimate the number of horrible plays that people make. IMO, a live 2/5 game probably plays something like a 0.25/0.50 on-line game. 1/2 live is probably slightly tougher than the play money tables. People, on average, are stupid. Its no different at the small stakes poker table.

No ht,

I’m no longer questioning EM’s play there and I still dont agree with someone calling 14BB’s PF to “try” and flop a set, I dont even think with those stats you make enough money for it.

But now I am stricktly talking about this EP guy now that we KNOW for sure what he had.

On the pre-comments we’ll have to agree to disagree, but what about the play of this EP guy with QQ??

Like I said I play small stakes live with people I consider to be weak/terrible players, and I could only WISH they played a pair of Q’s “commonly” as EM stated, like that. I also said if he said the guy had 10-10 I wouldnt be so surprised, so I agree with you there, but we know now he DIDNT have a small pair, so no use in talking about that now.

What a fold with QQ there. Especially to show it. I would have loved that.

ht

playing 99 that way IS incredibly stupid.

From what I gathered, Ed relied on good fold equity. AA and KK were possibilities but remote. Pairs up to QQ were a coinflip against AK BUT added to that he had fold equity, esp by knowing that people play incredibly stupid in live games (something I have to admit did not take into my equation as I play only online).

So overall, that was a positive EV move.

BTW, it is incredibly stupid because you are assuming that

1) You are stacking both of your opponents given the stack sizes and the amount EP has to call, and MOSTLY
2) You will not be raised by players left to act, something which in fact did happen.

I think the guy with QQ should have pushed and not called.
A little off-topic… I just checked the Wikipedia page about Ed… WOW! I’d never think that I’m two years older

John,

We all agree that it wasn’t a good play by the EP. Ed was jut saying that a lot of players generally don’t like to call big AI raises PF with QQ, and it is rightfully so.

I considered that it was possibly in his range at this point. I didn’t think it was highly likely, I admit, but I did definitely have it in my head. Maybe the players you play with aren’t AS bad as you think or maybe they are worse than you.

Ht summed it up pretty well. Yes, it was a bad play, but I don’t think you should be too surprised.

I guess I’m just going overboard, I assumed the people at my place of choice were pretty bad overall, seeing as we play mostly 1/2…..I have pretty much beaten the game there for the last 4-5 months at about 25-30BB profit per hour (on avg). Only 3 losing sessions in that time. (I only play 1 time a week)

I guess my conclusion was that they were just pretty bad rather than to stroke myself over it.

Meant 25-30 dollars…12-15BB

John,

It always possible that you have been running pretty well in addition to them being mediocre. Poker can be fickle.

John,

Heed what threads13 is saying! A while ago I put together an Excel spreadsheet which simulates what happens to a bankroll under typical win rates and standard deviations found in poker. You can still find the thread where I described it if you search back in the Message board on this forum.

Basically I discovered that if two people have the same win rate, it’s possible for one to end up with twice the winnings of the other even after 2 YEARS. So after 5 months it is totally possible that normal variance can make your win rate seem 4x bigger than it really is.

Can’t get my old password to work, and the new one doesn’t work either. Anyway . . .

You have virtually no fold equity at these stacks in live Houston underground games, but your equity when called is higher than tighter games.

The QQ player made a mistake. There was 162 in the pot, and 250 to call the raise. He needs 38% equity to call (250/660).

Assuming your range is only AA-KK + AK, he has exactly 38%. If you have JJ or AQs or worse (ie bluff) in your range, he had an overlay.

I can’t read.

There was 230 in the pot and it was 225 for the EP limper to call. He was getting 2:1 and needed 33% equity. Assuming AA-KK + AK, he had 38%. Terrible fold.

I vote for a push but there is a problem with the play. This hand is all about the Utg limper. If we try to put him on AA or KK here’s where it all gets tough. When the button re-raises UTG limper has to think to himself if he just calls so will I.Is he is waiting for me to push and then go heads up, maybe, but I doubt it.For the UTG limper it’s all about a safe flop. When the flop looks safe for him, lets say 7s 8h 2s it may not be.The Button may be holding 7 8 or 9 s 10s thinking he’s in with two hands containing aces. Conversely, if the UTG is in with an inferior hand it’s also a bad play to call a raise and a re-raise.When the under UTG limper doesn’t fold it becomes a guessing game for us. I don’t usually guess when playng poker but my guess would be to move in.