Hand Discussion #5: No Limit Hold’em Flopped Flush Draw Turns into Weak Top Pair

Preflop call:

I can’t see bluff raising. You have positon on the raise, a big pot developing and a nice gambling, multiway hand, so I don’t like folding. If one of the blinds or early limpers re-raises, it’s an easy hand to release for $10. So call it is.

How about the play on the flop:
We really don’t know to much about the hands in front of us. There could be a monster out there waiting to check raise or another draw that will bluff raise. The villains bet is fishy, but I don’t really put him on a monster at this point. If you are a gambler, I would lean towards putting a significant chunk of the villains stack in the middle and make him make the hard decision. I don’t mind the call. But, it does put you on a hard decision if someone moves in behind you. If the villain folds, it’s $110ish to call a $275ish pot. It get’s even more delicious if the villain over pushes at $160 into $450 or so when all of the chips get counted. Now the hard decision is yours. Your getting almost 3-1 and it’s hard to know what kind of shape your in with 2 cards to come. So, if the table is passive, I call here and someone shoves behind I throw up and re-evaluate. If the table is frisky, I bet here and commit myself with a nice draw + overs.

Was checking the best play on the turn:

I really think if you are going to value bet, you bet the turn. You still have a lot of hand with your pair and draw. If you think your opponent is tricky, then this may be a trap and I would check. If you are pretty sure that your opponent is straight forward, I would bet. If he has a better top pair or 2nd pair he will probably call and not raise. If he has a monster, well, you have outs.

And what do you think about the value bet on the river?

An overpair calls you or raises, JT, KT, QT call you. A5s and 56s just came in and raise. AQ, AK, AJ, KQ, KJ don’t call you. A3s, A2s, A4s are unlikely to call you and unlikely to have raised in the first place. It’s a really strange line for 99 and 9T, but they would raise. So the two hands that you are value betting are 77 and 88 (maybe 66). I think mostly bad things happen if you bet and only a few good things happen. It’s altogether possible that he’s checking to you with a moderately strong hand to induce a bluff just as you did on the turn. The card on the end wasn’t scary enough to get much to fold if you do bet into a stronger hand. The situation hasn’t changed from the turn. I check behind here.

I am not that huge of a fan of the PF call normally since you have bad relative position. However, there are a lot of people likely to be involved so you should get very good implied odds on this call. Also, you said this guy is a pretty loose raiser so it should be ok.

On the flop you may have as many as 15 outs and this guy could have lots hands that play this way. (As a side note I don’t really consider the flop bet an underbet. It is 1/3 to 1/2 which is alright in this spot in my book.) This guy should have about $90 left in a $105 pot. Why not move AI here? The pot is large so it would be nice to pick it up and if you get called you have as much as 64% chance of ending up with the best hand.

As far as the river goes, I would put in a bout a 1/2 pot value bet here. I think your check on the turn will entice some looser calls from a pair of 9′s and below.

I didn’t comment on the turn.

I thought that the turn check was good given that this guy is likely to bluff on the river. Also, I would rather not get raised with my slew of outs if I am behind when I can just check behind and see the next card for free. That is a good way ruin a good draw.

If this guy was more passive or if he folds a lot of turns I would be more in favor of a turn bet.

Jacob,

…snip…
I thought that the turn check was good given that this guy is likely to bluff on the river.
…snip…

I do think the turn bet is very much read dependent and that you don’t want to price yourself into calling a raise behind.

I was thinking the problem here is that it’s a lot harder to get paid off if we make our draw, especially overcards and x9 hands that would pay us off on the turn. Are you thinking that makes it more likely to induce a bluff on our very own scare card? If I had a straight draw, I would check behind often thinking that it is much easier to get paid off on a rivered straight. With a flush draw and top pair, I’m betting more often to get paid off on my top pair value.

Am I thinking about this wrong?

Todd

Preflop: good

Flop: I like a call here..the price is good, folding is bad, and I want to see what the field behind me does before I put in much more money. The drawback of calling is that it makes it a little more apparent that you probably have a draw.

Turn: Most of the time I’d move all-in. If I’m ahead, then I’m protecting my hand, and if I’m behind pushing may get a better hand to fold, but even if called I still probably have around 14 outs to win. The only issue with pushing is that there are pretty much no worse hands that will call, but I think the other things balance that out.

River: I don’t think I’d make that bet since I don’t see a lot of worse hands that will call (unless he puts you on a pure bluff like a busted draw) and i don’t think any better hands will fold (since you’re giving them 6:1 or so)

I think it’s very risky calling a 5xbb raise with the poorest possible relative position. On the other hand, I believe one of the advantages of live play is you really can have a good read on the table. I’ve been at tables where I could be over 90% sure this won’t get reraised by a limper.

The problem is where you are going to be after the flop. The chances of one of the limpers cr’ing if the flop hits him is going to be much higher than his betting out. The CO sounds like a player you KNOW will bet about any flop. When he does I think your chances of making a mistake are very high in this situation. And It’s going to be hard to get paid off if you hit it very hard.

I don’t like reraising because most likely you will end up heads up and I don’t like this hand heads up at all. So I think this is a fold preflop.

On the flop I would have called like you did.

The turn I bet. Villain has about $160 left. The pot is $135. I would bet $80. Not to give myself the odds to call if he goes all-in, but I think you have decent fold equity here ( I will gladly take this pot right now ) and also the chance that he has 1 or 2 overcards he should not get a free chance to beat you. But if he does go all in I figure I have 9 outs to a win, 2-5 outs for a probable win, and I might be ahead even if he does go all in ( your read being these guys are gamboolers ).

If he had still checked the river after calling my turn bet, I would check behind. As you played it I’m not sure. One reason I would have been confident betting the turn is because I think the flop bet looked VERY weak. I am afraid a small value bet will look weak enough here to invite a bluff. ( possible bluff, I will have to guess if it’s a bluff or not ). Or he will fold anyway.

This could be messed-up thinking, but if I’m going to bet on the end here, Pot is $135 and he has $160, I bet $70. I think it might be as likely or maybe even more so to get called IF he has anything he would have called $40 with. And if he has nothing, (which he wouldn’t call with) I think you are less likely to get bluffraised because now he will figure you would call it.

But I do think this is a fold preflop. I am not saying I would have folded it, but this is an area of my nl game I am trying to improve, planning ahead. I am used to my old limit ways of seeing a big multi-player pot brewing , having JTs, and visions of riches with guys staying in after the flop, me raising my draw, oh glorious draw. But nl, I have been focusing on running the FUTURE scenarios through my head and what am I going to do even IF… The guy in betting control makes it expensive, someone behind you having the hand or making a play back, yadda yadda. An excellent player might be fine getting into these situations, I’m finding out I’m better to avoid them by thinking ahead.

Good question. I am anxious to see Ed’s thoughts on this.

I love the button, but this is a fold preflop for 5%. Awful relative position, and it could get reraised behind you.

Flop: a raise here commits our stack, and I’m not ready to play for stacks yet. I don’t like all the players behind me, and I don’t want to fold getting these odds though, so I call.

Turn: if we bet, we have to call a crai, against which we will probably have 33% equity, so any bet is effectively a pot-sized and all-in. we are not bluffing out any better hands, and most worse hands are not calling, so the main reason to bet here is to protect against overcards which probably have 5 outs against us. if i had less money behind, i’d shove it in, but as is i check behind. i’d need to be surer of his being weak to bet here.

River: are we getting called by a med pair or ace high here? i don’t think a small bet is bad, but i would check it through.

Also, I think that if we are not shoving the turn, then we should fold preflop. If we’re not shoving the turn with top pair+flush draw in a heads-up pot, that means we need 2 pair to shove. And we won’t make 2 pair often enough to justify calling preflop.

I think it would help to have a read on CO here before I cold-call a 5x raise to my right in a multiway pot before the flop holding JTs. If he raises a wide range AND I believed most would just call behind me, then I might call here. However, you will be in bad relative position after the flop, but your hand is a good one to try to flop gin.

The flop comes 932 with two diamonds, giving you the fourth nut flush draw, two overcards, and a backdoor straight draw. The pot is $75.

Everyone checks to Villain and he bets $30, or a little under half the pot, leaving himself $160 behind (I think).

Like OP said, you realize what you have gotten yourself into.

You didn’t flop gin but you flopped a hand that could have some value, depending on whether a higher flush is out, or a big hand like two-pair (on a 932 board two-pair is unlikely) or a set. But, if CO has a big pair like JJ+ (which he is representing), you will be a 1.7-to-1 dog.

If you call here, and everyone else folds, the pot will be $135 and Villain will have roughly a pot-sized bet left. This is not what you want to happen when you have a draw and wiff the turn.

There is an alternative – you could semi-bluff. I think this is an incredibly risky move however, because you don’t have any info on the true strength of your hand. Someone could have checked a set or the nut flush draw to the preflop raiser and they are probably not going to fold.

This might put you in the worst situation in poker: sandwiched between a better made hand and a better draw when the money’s going in.

The math of the semi-bluff is something like:

You will be risking 190 to win 265, so you would need 42% equity to shove him in if this was a HU pot and he would call every time. This isn’t a realistic assessment though for two reasons:

1) There is a chance you will run into a bigger flush draw or a set
2) The CO and the field will fold to a shove some % of the time

Ideally, you would shove and everyone else would fold, and the CO will only call if he has something like any overpair, any set, and two big diamonds like AdKd or the AdQd. He will probably fold when he raised preflop with a medium pair like 66-88, or he has two high cards with no diamond. Against his calling range, you will have ~ 34% equity.

However, you don’t know how often the others will hold one of these calling hands and you have to just hope that a bigger flush isn’t out or a big made hand.
Given your hand, the size of the field behind you, and the remaining stack sizes (the CO doesn’t have much left to win beyond what is in the pot), I would probably just fold this.

If I was in a better spot to get it HU with the preflop raiser (increasing both your pot equity and your fold equity) I might semi-bluff shove (since he did kind of make a weak bet into a big field like that).

PREFLOP
I’m not fond of calling preflop with a speculative hand in this situation. There are still six people to be heared from after your call (the blinds and limpers) and one of the gamblers might just think his 88 or AJs is good enough to make a run for it. Also, your relative position on the flop will be terrible. Had UTG made the raise and four people cold called, then yes – as it stands, I would fold.

FLOP
Well, that’s just about the best flop you could hope for, barring something like JJT. You have overcards and a flush draw. Can’t fold. Raising might discourage the gamblers from making a big play. After all, neither the c-bet nor your call showed strength. I’d make it $80 and take it from there. Calling isn’t bad either, I’d say.

As for the c-bet itself, I’d say villain has squat. Even if he has 99, with 7 opponents he can’t afford to slowplay with the board two-colored. Multiway play is usually straightforward play, so I’d treat it as that unless villain is extremely tricky and would have reason to suspect that he will be check-raised a large percentage of the time after such a small bet.

TURN
Now your drawing hand turns into a made hand. Villain has shown weakness twice. It’s time to make a large bet. With $135 in the pot, you can’t afford to give holdings like AK-AJ, KQ-KJ and especially QJ a free card. You want that money now. At least, I would.

I’d bet $80. This might induce a mistake, by leading villain to believe he has the correct odds with QJ (14 possible outs – 6 in reality (unless he holds the Qd, then he has 9)).

If you get CR’d, you are getting a little under 4-1 and have a clear call.

RIVER
Dubious bet. There aren’t many worse hands that will call here. And what will you do if he pushes? It’s a $135 pot… do you really want to risk getting blown out of it for the small chance of winning an extra $40?
I wouldn’t, so I’d check. But I might be a bit too weak-tight here.

All in all a very interesting hand!

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To make it simpler:

Flop: you could try a raise (75$ or min raise to 60) on that 30$ bet.
30$ on a 75$ pot.. he shows weakness (I dont put him on a pair TT+ or 3 of a kind… cuz there are obvious straight and flush draw, his 30$ on a 75$ pot is too weak, it should be a CB like : if u have nothing, i have got AK or 88.. please fold , or just a simply position play)

So then A9 may calls u… cuz 60$ or 75$ is almost pot size.. A9 would not raise u in…

BUT FLAT CALLING cuz u are not last to bet, is not bad played…

Cuz against A9 or lower , u have 15 outs ( 6 for pair, 9 for flush )

TURN: POT EASY…. TP + FAir Kicker + Flush draw…

TURN : VeRY BAD PLAYED… u could Pot there.. u have still 14 outs to have kicky hand (3 of a kind, Double pair, of flush )

Cuz if an A or Q or K comes on the river and he bets to u, u are not going to know what to do then!!!

River: bad value bet, risk for nothing.

At flop, flat calling isnt so bad, but VERY weak played at Turn and at River