Hand Discussion #3: Bottom Two Pair Gets Checkraised

This is often QJ (9), 44 (1), KQ (12), or QT (12), and probably much less often Q4, J4, and total air. Although there are more combos of the hands we are ahead of, they must be discounted to some extent. We would expect a bet outright from this guy, who appears to be ABC. The c/r reeks of QJ, especially on a not very coordinated board.

Nevertheless, we are getting 2:1 to call and we have position, and so I think we should see a turn. I think another big bet on the turn will probably lead us toward a fold.

From your read on him, I’d fold as well.

He probably hit trips or top 2 pair. Although you might have the odds to call, the implied odds probably say: fold.

I’m going to assume its unlikely for him to hit QQ or JJ being there was no raise. I also feel its unlikely for him to hit 44 since you have the four. Of course, its only unlikely, not impossible. Proceeding from that, is it possible that he could be bluff raising? Perhaps semi bluffing with KT. It is also possible he is overvaluing a Q. I think that perhaps calling and seeing what he does on the turn might help. Then again, you are not very invested in this pot and there was no preflop raise. Though, I must admit, if you don’t reraise here, it’ll be hard to tell where you are at when he bets into you on the turn. Just some of my thoughts (no answer)… i hope Ed provides a stronger thought process than mine..

Here’s what I would do: call or raise. But then, I play against a lot of weak competition. Looking at the hand objectively, his CR doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you’re beat, unless he reads you as the kind of player who takes stabs at pots frequently.

In the heat of battle, I’m positive I can’t lay this down yet. It might be a leak in my game.

Why would he blow you away with a check-raise if he had a strong hand like QJ or 44 (the hands I would really be afaid of - he would have probably pre-flop raised with QQ or JJ) on a rainbow flop? The question I would seriously consider is he doing this with Q4 or Qx? Maybe if I knew he would lay down a strong but not a great hand I would re-raise but then again, if he is such a player he would probably not put you on a set (because you did not raise pre-flop so you dont have QQ or JJ) and you overbet the pot with 5 other live players (so you probably dont have 44 either because you dont want to bloe everyone out) and he will put further pressure on you on later rounds wether he has Q4 or Qx, representing a set. But then, you know he doesnt have it because your initial thought process does not him on a set. I guess I would avoid all this predicament by folding.

I think raising, calling, and folding are all OK here. If you raise, you’re announcing your hand and asking him if he wants to play for his stack. If he pushes, you’re almost certainly beat and you can fold. Calling is good if he’s horsing around with a queen or a straight draw; he’ll be unlikely to make a big turn bet with one pair. If a queen comes on the turn, you can toss your hand cheaply, and if you catch your boat (esp. your 4), you can start extracting money. If he leads the turn big, you can probably fold.

Folding is at worst a very small mistake, and is probably the right play if you would feel horrible about losing your stack. The stack sizes here make things difficult. If you’re playing for 70-80 big bets, you can get it in on the flop without too much angst. But in this spot, if all the money goes in against a somewhat competent opponent, you’re probably drawing nearly dead.

The ranges presented so far seem a bit tight to me. We are talking about the SB who called half a bet and raised the only person who has shown any interest in the pot and done so with an overbet from the BB, which tends to be typical of a vulnerable hand. AQ has to be in play here. Also, if the game is small enough, all sorts of Qs and Js are coming along for the ride for half a bet. There are really only 3 non-raising hands that are beating you, QJ, 44, and Q4s (a stretch but plausible).

I think much of the hand has to do with how you have been interacting with the table. I think lots of top pair hands as well as drawing and second pair hands are going to put you to the test if you have shown that you are willing to lay down a hand. If I limped AQ, KQ, QT, 9T, maybe even something weaker with backdoor draws like JTs or J9s and I saw that you do not like to play big pots, I am going to test you and see if you want to play a big pot here. Especially given that the BB is out of position, I think he is going to check-raise top pair here a lot just to resolve the hand on the flop.

Those ranges look good if you are the villain, but I gather that the villain in this hand is an unimaginative sort. Also, he is checkraising someone to his immediate right, one who has bet from EP. The person taking interest in the pot is not last to act.

I would really, truly re-raise the villain to put him to the test.

If you are ever going to continue from the BB with a rag hand, this is it. Push back. See what the response is and proceed with care.

Buzz,

I am looking at this from the point of view of the villain. I have the SB on a pretty broad range. Starting from the beginning. I am the villain in the SB. I complete the SB with a wide range of hands. There are 6 people in the pot. I’m not sure about their positions, but I’m assuming a mix of small pocket pairs, weak aces and middle suited connectors, that sort of thing. I don’t think the later position limpers have high suited connectors as they didn’t throw in a little raise to steal the button and start building a pot. So, as the BB, I think the SB would bet something as weak as 88 or 99. It would depend a lot on the table, but the action thus far is pretty passive.

Given that, I think I don’t need a whole lot of hand to try to take him off his hand. One of the key questions is, if I’m the SB, am I raising with my very best hands on the flop? There are only a few action killing cards given the rainbow board, so I don’t think so. I want the villain to remain in the hand and I don’t think I have to start pumping it up now. I’ll be able to get more money in on the turn as long as a lowish card comes.

So coming back to the BB’s point of view, no particular strength has been shown until the check raise. I am more inclined to believe he has a top pair or middle pair/drawing hand than to think he has a monster. If I have folded to pressure lately, I am broadening my range even more. That’s not to say that I am always ahead, but I feel I am ahead more than I am behind. Given all of that, I am generally calling here and occasionally raising with bottom 2 unless I have a very good read on the villain, which we don’t seem to have.

Does that seem reasonable to you, or do you think I’m giving the villain too much credit. I guess I just really feel that something like this:
QJ (9), 44 (1), KQ (12), or QT (12)

plus AQ and KT isn’t taking into account the villains read on the hand as played. I really think you need to add in a bunch of suited Qs and a select few suited Js. That’s still an enormous range you’re ahead of.

It depends on stack size, but you described the stacks as “medium deep” so I assume that hero and villain both have substantial chips leftover.

Fold. And I don’t think it’s that hard.

This is a classic NL vs. Limit distinction. In limit you’d never muck here, but in NL you should. Where do you go from here when he bets the turn–what if it’s a small bet? You wind up call, call, calling your chips away with a mediocre hand. Just muck and move on.

Given that you have no information, I actually think you need to include the general player profile of a good player in this game. If this were the typical “pretty good $1/$2 player” at most casinos, I’d guess he rarely has merely air — he has a hand that almost surely beats bottomw two.

As you move up in limits the “pretty good players” are capable of putting you on weakness and making a check raise with nothing. But, unless that’s a typical play by the good players in your game, I think you have an easy fold.

Well, in that case you should call and hope he continues to bet, since it’s far more likely that you have him beat. Just call here and call again if a safe card hits.

But I think that hand range is unrealistic. His most likely holding that you currently beat is a straight draw, mostly likely T9 or KT. Adding these hands makes re-raising a better option.

(Incidentally, if he has a hand like KQ, a check from the SB would be a horrible play, don’t you think?)

With that hand range, you’re around a 3:1 favorite to be ahead. Plus, there has to be some possibility that villain will fold some hands that beat you (Q4, for example) if you reraise.

So, I would make a big reraise, probably just under pot size. However, against unknowns, I wouldn’t put them on this hand range. The check-raise semi-bluff isn’t in the arsenal of many players.

Matt,

From the villains point of view, how are you playing 9T or KT? Would you be check calling most of the time? I play more tournaments than cash games, so I really don’t have a good feel for this. To the tournament player in me, this seems like a very common line for that sort of hand in a limped pot. Do you just not see that as much in low/middle limit cash games?

As for where we are in the hand. My opinion (shakey as it is) is that I will continue with the hand for a bit. There’s around 40BB in the pot and I’m in it for 7. I’m not spending 100BB on this hand because it’s good, but not all that great and I’m ahead a lot here but I’m behind plenty of times too. There is really only one card that could come, a 4, that would make me willing to double up the villain. So, if I’ve been raising a lot recently or have been caught raising light, I’m going to call and try to get to showdown. I’m not calling big bets unless a 4 comes. If the villain sees we’ve smooth called his raise and still leads for a substantial bet, we are almost certainly behind. If a Q comes I’m done with the hand. If we get to the river and the board pairs, I may call a small bet to see how he played the hand, but I’m assuming I’m behind and will fold to any substatial bet. If a J comes I’m seriously re-evaluating.

If I have been passive lately, I’m going to stick the 40bb I’m willing to spend on the hand in the pot right now. If I meet resistance, I’m done with the hand.

Todd

Todd asked:

“Matt,

From the villains point of view, how are you playing 9T or KT? Would you be check calling most of the time?”

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Short answer: yes. But it depends on so many things.

Long answer: In the low-limit games I play (and I assume this hand is LL live), the #1 mistake opponents make is taking good but not great hands way too far. The way to beat these games it to make great hands vs. their good hands and stack them. The most common example is when they raise AA or KK PF, you call with a pair, flop a set, and they lose it all.

This hand is similar because you have a reasonable chance of stacking your opponent IF he has a good hand AND you make your draw. Some may say that’s a weak tight approach to the games, but I stand by it.

If I had KT or T9 in the SB vs. several limpers, I would certainly complete PF, as villain did. I really like the flop, which gives me an OESD. I’m willing to treat my hand as a nut-draw, since AK is very unlikely given the unraised pot.

I think there are too many enemy to bet into this pot. The last thing I want is to bet, get raised by a short stack, and have to fold my hand on the flop after putting $$ in (if all the stacks are very large, a build-the-pot bet might make sense, but that’s rarely the case).

So I would likely decide to check and see what happens. I might call, raise, or fold, depending on who bets and their stack size. If, for example, it’s checked to an aggressive mid-stacked button player who makes a 1/2 pot bet, I’ll almost certainly raise. However, that didn’t happen here. Action came from the big stacked BB. I WANT ALL THAT MONEY!

So after I check, the BB (hero) bets the pot, and all fold back to me. I like this action, primarily because the BB is so deep. While his bet is big relative to the pot, it’s tiny relative to his 150BB stack. The implied odds mean that I’m definitely playing, the only question is how.

As the BB in an unraised pot, what could he have? I highly doubt he’s bluffing into so many players, so he has something. I doubt it’s bottom-trash (something like 74). I’ll give him credit for a real hand. It’s probably not QQ or JJ, since he would have raised pre-flop. That’s too bad, since I’d really like him to have QQ here. If I hit my turn card, we’ll likely get all the money in on the turn. Alas.

So it’s not too hard to put BB some kind of hand range. I’d guess he has somewhere between top-pair decent kicker and bottom set, inclusive.

What to do? If I put in a big raise, he might muck the top pair hands…but he might not. And if he doesn’t, will I continue on the turn (assuming I miss) with a hand I know is a big dog? I dunno. I know that I hate being out of position in a large pot, though.

If I have some reason to peg the BB as a weak player who folds too much, I’m more likely to make the CR and/or lead at a blank turn. But is he a player who’ll call off his stack? If so, I’m more likely to try to hit my hand and get paid off. Absent a specific read, I’m likely to consider him a typical player who will call too much. That means BOTH that a semi-bluff is unlikely to win the pot here AND I’ll probably get paid off if I make my hand on the turn.

So back to the flop…I’m looking at a 7BB bet and dreaming of winning 150BBs. I probably call the BBs bet and await the turn. If it’s a blank, I check and probably call again. If I hit, I probably lead out with a near pot-sized bet and hope I get raised.

Thanks for the detailed reply Matt. I appreciate your thoughts on the villain.

I think this is where some of the cash versus tournament strategies come into play. I think semi-bluffs and check raise semi-bluffs are a critical part of accumulating chips as blinds rise in tournament play. The fold equity is as valuable as the stacking potential. They aren’t hands you sit on try to make, they are hands you attack with. It’s so natural to my thought process that I have to give credit to a villain for attacking this way.

So, in a low limit live game, your position is that there is less value in semi-bluffing to win a small pot because you want to save your chips for when somebody makes the inevitable huge bad call and it works against itself because people call anyway and you just wasting chips if your hand doesn’t come in.

Now, let’s give the villain 44. If I have 44, I’m thinking about check/call on the flop with one bettor and check/raise on the turn. If I get a bettor and a caller, I’m going to check/raise the flop. As it turn out, there was one bettor and there weren’t very many cards that are going to kill my action. As the SB, I mostly think the BB has some sort of hand centered around top pair good kicker. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse. If I have 44 in the SB, I have every reason to believe that the BB will put in another bet if checked to on the turn and this will allow my raise to have more absolute value while giving decent pot odds to call making it seem like an easier call while building the pot.

Your position is that you would raise a hand like 44 on the flop because you are likely to get a call from a relatively weak hand and there is no sense in waiting, leading you to the conclusion that the SB is more likely to have a strong hand here.

Adding all of this up your happy to chuck a medium strength hand to what in your read is more than likely a strong hand with you at the bottom of his likely range and save your chips for later where I am more likely to not want to give up on a medium strength hand when my read has me more in the center of the villains range. Does that about capture it?

You’re asking what I’d do if I were the SB this hand with 44 (botton set)? I’d bet the flop 100% of the time. I’m in pot building mode and I’m very confident that I’ll get action from TP, a draw, or 2-pair. If I’m really lucky, someone with semi-bluff-raise with a draw and I’ll push (depending on stack sizes). I hate a check with bottom set in the SB vs. multi-limpers on 4QJ flop.

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You asked “Adding all of this up your happy to chuck a medium strength hand to what in your read is more than likely a strong hand with you at the bottom of his likely range and save your chips for later where I am more likely to not want to give up on a medium strength hand when my read has me more in the center of the villains range?”

Wow. That’s a doozy of a sentence. I think the answer is yes. I’m happy to dump medium strength hands in large stack NL games when I don’t think my opponent is a frequent bluffer.

IMO, you win the most money at LL NL by making great hands vs. good hands (sets vs. overpairs; straights vs. 2-pair+). You don’t make money by making heroic calls out of position with pretty good hands that may or may not be good.

This hand kind of brings to mind Concept #6 from NLTAP.

It states: “It can be right to call with decent hands that have little chance of improving even if you plan to fold if there is a bet on the next round.” Later, the authors state that sometimes you will have to call two reasonable barrels just to find out you were beat and make a sound muck on the river.

Although the examples given in the book did not include hands where Hero was check-raised, I think this concept kind of applies here.

If we imagine your non-maniacal, non-idiotic opponent check-raising 22BBs on the flop, leading for 30-40BBs on the turn, then shoving in the last of his stack (or close to it) on the river, then we can assume you are a significant favorite to be beaten, usually by QJ or 44.

The drawbacks of this play are that it will cost you something like 40% of the effective stack size to call the flop and turn, and if he shoves the river, you would be getting ~ 2.5-to-1 for a call. Also, there are some bad cards that can come on the turn that will make us hate our hand (Aces, Kings, Queens, or Nines). Further, if he is an aggressive player who will make the play with hands like top pair, straight draws, and sets and two-pairs, then we are actually 3-to-2 favorites here and should play the hand more for value. However, the original poster categorized his opponent as rational and somewhat straight-forward. If we assume he will only make this play with top pair hands or two-pairs or sets, then we are dead-even against that range.

The positives are that if he eases up on the turn (either because he’s slowing down with his top pair hands or check/calling or check/folding his thwarted semi-bluffs) then we can go into value mode.

Also, when he makes that big river bet and we’re right (he has us beat), we save $ when we’re behind and avoid getting stacked with bottom two (never a good hand when a solid opponent starts putting insane amounts of BBs into small pots).

I’m not entirely sure if the concept applies here, but I think I would call flop and evaluate on the turn and possibly take it to the river given how he plays 4th, using its reasoning.

Thanks to all you responders. I feel better about the way I played the hand. I still think I should have reraised and gone from there. One of the hands he lost without a showdown earlier was to me. I don’t remember exact cards but he bet into me on flop and called my raise, my 1/2 pot turn bet and folded on river to 1/2 pot bet. I’m assuming he liked to bet out on his draws ( small blocking bets ).

But AQ or weaker queen was probably possible enough. Ed states in ss that you should assume loose / weak opposition util proven otherwise. I know he was talking about limit, pre-flop, and the game in general, but I think that is what I should have done here. I had a read but it wasn’t based on a very long time span.

I still can’t see how I should have called here though. If I believe I have the best hand, I should raise and charge him or take it. If I think I am behind not only will I face a big bet on the turn but most of the hands I am behind take away either the J or the 4 as outs ( with the exception of QQ which I confidently rule out).

So I viewed this as raise or fold. But, as I’ve stated, I am still transitioning from fl to nl and finding my way. Discussions like this are immensely helpful, so again, gracias.

Clarification, I meant the QQ exception because it would take both outs away. Anyway, one poster said I had the implied odds to call if behind but I don’t see it.

[...] couple of days ago I posted a hand from jamleeco. This is a tricky hand, there’s no doubt about it. I think there’s [...]

There is a lot of missing information here. What limit, where played geographically, in a history-lacking-unknown situation against a typical 20% VPIP weak tight the situation is marginal at best. I say this because you are probably seeing QJ, Q4,44 against this typical opponent more often than not…Once in a while you’ll see Q10 and Qx. This spot isn’t one where I believe you will have a significant edge EV wise against it will probably come up negative long term

Switching player types- against a LAG …K10, 910, and all kinds of hand combos your EV will certainly improve and pushing here is certainly fine with a better read…

I have been playing NL for so long. This is a fold. You are missing information, either by one not paying attention or not playing enough hands.

What seperates this from Limit is risk reward. Here you committing your chips on this hand when you stand to gain only an extra say $16, if you knew that he would commit to your raise with an AQ and is willing to go all in, then you might have a tough decision, but if he is just bluffing, you stand to gain $16 but stand to lose a hell of a lot more.

Wrong Decision 1: He’s bluffing, you reraise committing both you and the player and he folds, you win $16, but you risk a hell of a lot more just finding that out.

Wrong Decision 2: He is not bluffing, you reraise and he has you greatly dominated with a set or top 2 pair.

I agree with Mark K. This is an immediate fold.

By simply calling this check-raise you are showing weakness, and insecurity in your hand. If you simply call, on the turn he knows that if he bets strong you’re gonna fold.

And if he does bet strong on the turn then you are in the exact same perdicament! And with his cr on the flop and strong bet on the turn you will be forced to fold!

Personally I would put him on Top pair with excellent kicker. But you are both playing deep, and risk losing alot… AND if you call the pot is getting way too big already! You’re going to be playing in a big pot with a mediocre hand which is a big no no.

The good hands and big pots are coming, be patient and throw this crap away.