Hand Discussion #2: No Limit Turn Checkraise Semibluff

To start.

Pre-flop. I’m not a fan of limping with ATs UTG. Seems like a problem hand for me. So I’d be folding this (too tight maybe?). Once raised I like the call. Might as well see what develops.

Flop. Standard continuation bet by villian. You have top-pair with BDFD. I like the call.

Turn. I just check/call as well. But you do have a ton of outs. I’d estimate 11 or so. (9 for FD, 1 for T’s and 1 for A’s).

River. you should try to pull a heart here. j/k. As I played… I’d try to check-call depending on bet size. not sure if leading is better here though.

I’d raise PF. I don’t like the limp-call. I want to come into this hand with initiative.

After that, the flop is okay (as played). I might check-raise the flop in the hopes of folding out a better hand and/or protecting against a worse hand that may pick up outs.

On the turn (again, as played), I’d just check/call. Our play up to this point wouldn’t make an overbet push very believable as anything other than air or a draw. I’d expect to get called by any overpair a high percentage of the time.

Pre-flop: I’m inclined to raise here. At a full table, ATs is dodgy UTG, but w/ 6 players, it’s strong enough. But I don’t suppose I hate the call here.

Flop: Top pair-top kicker. I bet straight away – $15. You are likely ahead here, and wouldn’t mind winning the pot now… and there are lots of hands he could have the completely whiffed. If you check, as the player did, you definitely call the $20.

Turn: Again, I bet out – let’s say $40. This board is all kinds of scary now, and there are a lot of hands that will fold here… and with the nut flush draw, you have some protection if he has a 9. As far as the re-raise push goes… I don’t like it. I’m not going to break out the calculator, but I don’t think the odds are there. I call and see what happens.

I have no clue about NL, but if villain raises pf UTG+1 could he have the straight (with exception of 99)? I think flush draw on the flop is more likely. However I don’t know if a pot size bet on the flop is what you do in NL when you have a flush draw. Maybe someone could answer me this.

What I wanted to say: Why not take the lead on the flop with TPTK?

I dont like the all-in check raise move. Too much is being put at stake when you consider that no information was gathered from the way the hand was played to that point.

As far as you are concerned, his pre-flop raise could mean anything. His flop bet does not help you define anything either – did he sense weakness in your check and is betting with air or is he protecting a good hand against possible draws? The same reasoning applies for the action on the turn. Given the lack of information, your top pair is no good for an all-in move and I dont think the odds are there either for the draws you have. The risk of being up against a pair of Jacks or better is not worth the move given that you cannot put your opponent on any range of cards.

So I would just call here, and pray for a heart to show up.

If your opponent actually has overcards, he may lay down his hand after your move, but you dont have a read on him and therefore you dont know if he is capable of doing that.

I meant overpair

I think this is a great example of why not to limp ATs in early position. Once you come into this pot you’re trapped.

The checkraise on the turn is way too much to invest to protect your hand, and it will only be called by overpairs or better. Consider betting out instead.

I don’t understand any of this. Preflop is horrible. The flop is horrible. The turn is just terrible. I don’t know why I’m limping preflop. If I don’t like my hand enough to raise, why am I calling OOP? On the flop, if I have a read that the guy will c-bet, I will c/r, but c/calling doesn’t make any sense to me. Why am I pushing on the turn? I get called by most hands that beat me, and I fold out everything I beat. Why didn’t I just fold them out on the flop?! I’ve won a whole extra 30 bucks but at a risk that I don’t like.

I raise PF. I might bet or c/r the flop, depending what the other guy is like. With no read, I’ll just bet out. As played, bet the turn. As played without the bet, check/call. No way I push there. I have nine outs if I’m beaten and I’m overbetting huge.

On this flop, I’m just thinking “take it down” with this hand. Okay, the turn improves me, but if I can get to SD quite cheaply, I will. This is not a hand I’m wanting to get my whole stack in. I might be wrong here — and I can’t wait to read Ed’s analysis! — but I think I am never called by hands I beat here.

OK the Poker Newbie might say something really silly but here goes nuthin’…

I would make a big bet on the flop, about 2x pot. Hero has top pair top kicker and a backdoor heart draw, so it’s a strong hand right now. But it’s vulnerable. If a picture card comes up on the turn or river, that creates problems. So give villain bad pot odds to call and try to take the hand down right now.

PF: I hate the limp-call. I’m either raising this hand first-in or I’m folding. After limping, I’m not calling the raise OOP.

Flop: This is exactly why you don’t call a raise with AT OOP. I probably lead out here for about 2/3 of the pot to see where I’m at. With no reads, I’m prepared to fold a raise. If you want even better information (but at a greater price), you could c/r the flop. Check-calling is the worst option IMO because all it does is commit you to a big pot with a marginal hand OOP and gets you no more information.

Turn: OK, I’ve picked up the nut flush draw and a gutshot but I still don’t know where I’m at in this hand. I could very well be behind and drawing. I like a check-call here. Villain has given you a decent price (3:1) to improve your hand.

I am fairly new to NL so my opinion doesn’t carry a lot of weight and several posts see this hand the way I do already, however I am trying to learn NL so I wanted to go through the way I would think about the hand to see if I am looking at it right.

I would not limp with this hand PF from EP, 6 handed I see this as a strong hand. From UTG the only way I would play ATs is with an opening raise somewhere around 3xBB. And I absolutely don’t understand checking on the flop. TPTK and a backdoor FD, I would bet out around 2/3 – 3/4 the pot. Even if I missed the flop I would c-bet here, check/calling leaves you kind of lost. Particularly after we limped, the villian is going to bet no matter what he has at that point.

It’s hard to tell what’s right on the turn with the way the hand unfolded, we don’t have much (any?) good info on the hands we could be up against IMO. The preflop raise could be overcards, it could be a big pair, it could be that he sensed weakness, whatever. If we had open raised and were reraised, then bet hard on the flop and were raised I probably start to think about folding and think I’m up against a big pair, if I’m called PF and flop, I start to think maybe a FD and I bet out (but not push). Neither of those reads can be real solid with the lack of history on the opponent. The possible straight is scary but, as someone else said, it’s hard to see that as a high percentage unless he is on 9s. I recently read HoH, and a big thing I took from vol.I was that by staying tight but aggressive early I could avoid a lot of hard decisions later. If the hand had been played hard PF and flop I am less likely to put him on 9s at this point.

I would probably look to check/call to the SD if I am still in the hand at that point.

Thanks much for the site Ed, I have gotten a lot from your books and from your posts on 2+2. I like it here better though, the signal to noise level is better here. I do think you might be right that a forum would be an easier way to do this kind of hand discussion.

I definitely would be leading out on the flop and the turn. This is a hand I would prefer not to go all the way with; as played, you still have very little clue if you are ahead or behind, so the C/R all-in is a scary proposition.

What I would have liked to try, should I be re-raised on this flop after Hero took an initial stab with a 2/3 or 3/4 pot-size bet, is a 3-bet to put my opponent to a big decision for all of his chips. That way, you gain some fold equity and also have a good redraw in case you are behind.

Good question about the c/r as opposed to betting out on the flop. Giving it some thought I believe a c/r would be a given for me in limit (which is what I played until recently). The big downside I see in not betting out is if I check and he takes a free card I have to worry if another spade or an overcard hits. I think I try to play too conservative. I try to take the pots early and if I can’t, I think about keeping my later decisions as easy as possible.

I guess I don’t really know. I do know that the way I play now, I tend to bet out on the flop more often than not. It is likely a very amateurish way to look at things but I still think of betting on the flop as ‘defining the hand’ or ‘seeing where I am’.

Advantages of betting: fold equity + betting small (blocking bets) may keep the pot small until and if you hit the nut flush. If I am check-raised on the flop, I guess I will lose a lot of interest in continuing with this hand (I guess this might look pretty weak for some of you).

Disadvantages of betting: building a large pot when all you have is a pair, risking also not seeing a showdown after betting a significant part of your stack.

Ed,

I would be inclined to reraise to about $120 — nearly doubling the pot size [16+11+35=62]. Aggressive, yes, but I can still get away from the hand if villain pushes back, and I want to take the pot down now given that I’m playing a marginal hand OOP.

I could also pretty easily find a fold to the $35 raise by our opponent.

I certainly would not just flat-call the raise.

Kevin also makes a good point about trying to run some smaller blocking bets, but I have found that savvy opponents will often just blow you out of the water with fairly hefty raises. You have to use blocking bets with a fair amount of discretion, and I would be very reluctant to repeatedly use them against the same player, or multiple times in one individual hand. You become very exploitable given such a transparent strategy.

Ed-

I think betting the flop is better than check-calling for a couple of reasons:

1) It gives you a chance to take down the pot right now. If Villain raised PF with AK or AQ he might well lay his hand down to a decent size bet.

2) Villain’s reaction to your bet will give you some information about his hand and where you stand. If Villain calls (or especially if he raises) then that increases the likelihood that he has a pair bigger than your 10′s. Check-calling tells you nothing about Villain’s hand since most opponents would continuation bet that flop with anything after you checked.

The main disadvantage to betting is that you’re committing money to the pot with a marginal hand OOP. If Villain flat calls your bet you will have a tough decision on the turn.

Ed,

If my opponent calls the reraise and we’re playing a big pot … it depends.

My plan would be: push on any heart or scare card [8h is both of these]. I’d be running a classic semi-bluff in hopes of winning a big pot right here.

If the turn card is a blank, I’d likely adopt a less aggressive line of play to try and reach showdown.

I must reiterate that I could easily find a fold to a raise on the flop. But if I adopt a much more muscular approach to the hand, and my opponent stays with me but doesn’t push, I would tend to see some weakness and keep the pressure on with another big bet.

INITIAL THOUGHTS:

Preflop: Limp is decent against passive opponents who aren’t likely to raise and are also likely to pay off frequently. Once he raises, a fold is in order IMO. Unless you believe you can outmaneuver your opponent post-flop from out of position a decent percentage of the time, you aren’t going to hit the flop often enough to really exploit this situation.

Once you call the raise and you hit the board like you did, a number of initial thoughts enter my mind:

· I wish I had a read
· Let’s play a small pot

I think check-call flop is fine planning to reevaluate on the turn. A lead/fold line might be appropriate against a straightforward player who would only raise you with the goods.

Since the turn hit with the 8h, you are now contemplating a semi-bluff because you can take advantage of the cluttered, coordinated board. Also, after you check, his turn bet seems a little weak due to the board texture, so if he had a bigger hand (set, overpair) he might be betting a little more.

I made some assumptions and did a little math to come up with an estimate the EV of a semi-bluff in this situation.

If your opponent will raise preflop with 77+,AJ+, and KQ then he has hit this flop pretty hard. There are 70 combos in this range (adjusted for the board cards and our holecards). On the turn, we will assume that he will call our semibluff with the following range:

· all the hands that make sets or straights: 77,88,99,TT
· all overpairs to the board: JJ-AA
· Overcards + flush draw hands like AsKs or KhQh

If you check-jam the turn, he will fold all high card hands that are not also flush draws (KdQh or AcKc). If he calls you, your equity against his range will be 34%. With this much equity, your opponent will have to fold at least 36% of the time in order to break-even. Under our assumptions, our opponent will fold 31 combos, so he folds 31/70 = 44% of the time.

This makes the EV of a semi-bluff turn raise =

.44(45BB) + .56(-25BB) = +5.8BBs.

So a semi-bluff turn raise under these assumptions is +EV by about 6BBs, which is pretty significant.

What are our other options?

If you check and call the turn, planning to check-and call a ½ pot bet on the river (when you miss your flush), then your effective odds are ~ 1.7-to-1. You would need 37% equity in this case, which seems pretty reasonable considering you will win 35% of the time against KK and there is some % of the time he is bluffing. If you think you will make a couple more bets if you hit, then obviously your odds are greater.

If you check and call the turn, planning to check and fold the river when you miss, but bet 2/3rds if you hit (which he will call 70% of the time), then your implied odds are ~ 5-to-1. These are pretty good odds when you have approx 32% equity against a reasonable range for your opponent.

It seems that the turn semi-bluff relies on too much fold equity which may or may not be there (it’s probably pretty close), while other lines have you at either neutral to positive EV or potentially very +EV.

The type of opponent you face affects your decision greatly. Against aggressive opponents who will fire three barrels, your check-and-call line does pretty well, as does your turn semi-bluff, since he will be firing his turn barrel with more hands he plans to fold to a shove.

Conversely, if your opponent is tight, then your turn semi-bluff loses most of it’s fold equity because JJ-KK are all overpairs, and TT,99,88, and 77 make either straights or sets, which means he’s not folding. So, a tight 3-betting preflop range for your opponent lessens your fold equity.

If he is raising with a tight range preflop, then the only hands he is folding on this board are AK-AJ offsuit or suited of diamonds or clubs. At $1/$2, I don’t like to bank on my opponent folding overpairs in decent-sized pots, so I assume he won’t fold those.

Also, the check-call, check-fold line for the turn and river does well against tight opponents who won’t bet the river with a hand you can beat, but will check behind with wiffed flush draws.

The check-call to showdown line (depending on villain’s bet sizes) does well against opponents who will bluff when they miss their draw or were bluffing with wiffed high cards the whole way.

The check-raise all-in turn line does well against aggressive opponents who are more likely to hold foldable hands.

As a default, I think you should either check-call to the showdown (depending on how much he bets river, how aggressive/passive he is), or check-call, check-fold the river. One or the other capitan. If he’s aggressive and if you read his bet-size as likely to indicate a weaker hand in his overall range, then a semi-bluff is a strong consideration. Paradoxically, if your opponent is very tight, then he might be more capable of mucking an overpair to your turn check-raise, which makes a semi-bluff more attractive. Weird spot. Muck preflop.

Bobby:

Thanks for running some numbers. I am not sure I agree with all of your recommendations, but there is no doubt that this is a tricky spot, which is what often happens when you decide to play a marginal hand OOP.

I know I advocated an aggressive line of play in some of my comments, but avoiding this situation altogether might very well be the most +EV decision one could make.

I’m not a fan of check-raising on either the flop or the turn. Overall, I think Bobby’s analysis is quite good, and I agree with the notion of wanting to keep the pot size small with a marginal hand after the flop. A big semi-bluff check-raise is not the way to do this. I also like Shrike’s line of thinking that avoiding the situation altogether could be the most +EV.

I also agree with Bobby that a pre-flop limp with a decent suited ace isn’t terrible vs. passive opponents, but in general (especially if I have limited reads), I prefer a raise pre-flop. I feel a raise in this situation better defines your hand. If you’re reraised, you will tend to have a much better idea of where your hand is.

Once raised after a limp pre-flop, I think you need to give the hand up. Again, without reads, I think this is a textbook situation to play it safe. As the hero learned the hard way, this is the exact sort of hand that can be incredibly tricky to play out of position.

My main issue with the post flop play is that the hero never put himself in a position to define his hand. When I don’t have any reads, I work under the assumption that my opponent is playing somewhat straightforward. Check-calling the flop and checking the turn (even with the intention of check-raising) doesn’t give the hero an opportunity to make a meaningful read (and zero folding equity), putting him in a position of having to make difficult decisions OOP.

By coming out with, say, a 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet on the flop, one of three things happens…

1) Villain folds. (Obviously good.)
2) Villain calls. (Re-evaluate on the turn.)
3) Villain raises.

Facing a raise, I again take a straightforward approach. Against anything more than a min-raise, I’m likely to give up the hand at this point. My opponent has now stated pre-flop and post-flop that he has a strong hand, one that is likely to beat a top pair of tens. Sure, my opponent could have a wide variety of hands, but now if I call this raise (or consider a re-raise), I’m now playing a huge pot with just top pair. If he shows me a semi-bluff with a hand like AsQs after I fold, then “nh sir” and I make a note. If I don’t get to see his hand, but I see him frequently (or rarely) raise pre-flop and post-flop in future hands, then I can establish an image on him and act more accordingly next time I tussle with him.

Assuming I get to the turn either because I check-called or because he called my bet, I again like betting out in the 1/2 to 3/4 pot range once I pick up the nut flush draw. The check-raise is a much stronger statement, but I think it risks a lot more money without a significant benefit. Again, by betting, one of three things happen, none of which are terrible…

1) Villain folds. (Fine by me.)
2) Villain calls. (Unless I improve on the river, I’m checking my now, at best, medium-strength hand.)
3) Villain raises.

The good news with a raise on the turn is that I have a much easier decision. I will just work under the assumption that I am beat at this point, and I ask, “Am I getting the correct odds to chase my flush?” While it’s simplistic, for me, no reads equals me assuming straightforward play until shown otherwise.

I have so far only played limit hold’em. But I’ll give it a try and say what I think according to what I read in 2 books so far. Seems like the villain raised preflop which makes in my mind unlikely that he has 89 (thinking from the limit hold’em point of view). Either way, the hero flopped top pair ace kicker, granted with a scary looking board. So, the question for me would be, did the villain flop a straight? or is he semibluffing or bluffing? It would help to know what type of player he is. But, I would play it as if the villain was semibluffing. In that case I would think that the villain has at least 4 outs to make a straight, maybe more outs. So I would’ve raised him on the flop, enough to try to make a call from the villain unprofitable, because by calling his bet I’m just giving him a cheap card to make his draw. I’d be hoping for him to fold. If he raises me I’d probably fold, if he calls me I’d see the turn and see how things look, hoping for him to check to me, in which case I would’ve bet to him because turn card gave lot of outs. If he bet to me on the turn, then I’d probably take him seriously and think he has me beat so I would look at pot odds and decide whether to call, raise and the same for the river. Well, thats what I think, coming from a begginer limit hold’em player (but who has read and tries to follow “SSHE Winning Big”)

I see. Now, if the villain does have an overpair then this flop would be very scary from the villain’s point of view. So in my mind it was incorrect for him to bet just $20 giving hero a potential 1:7 pot odds with a possible straight and flush draw. Assuming that the villain does have an overpair, in my mind it is more correct for villain to bet more than he did, to lower hero’s pot odds (this is assuming that the villain thinks that hero is on a draw as opposed to a higher pair, or a made straight, but so far hero’s play doesn’t suggest that, because with a made straight hero probably would’ve raised to cut down on villains pot odds for possible flush draw or higher straight).
Well that’s the reason I thought that the villain was likely drawing himself, because otherwise (with overpair), shouldn’t he have be more on the flop?

Perhaps we can have the actual result of the hand made known, after all this interesting debate? Would be interested to know what villain actually held here.

I see this hand as follows..

1. We have a nice hand ATs with T high board,
2. We have a nice draw
3. We have nice pot odds to play to the draw
4. If we hit are draw will almost certainly be the best hand
5. Villain might give a free card on the turn
6. Villain might be beat and give up (AK)#

Need i list anymore reasons why we peel a card here and see what happens on the turn?

For me raising is awful as we can get blown off our hand, fold is worse, therefore …. … .. CALLLLLL

Er… free card is silly as we are on the turn.. eitherway we get 4/1 on our call and we can make the best hand, and easily make money on the river.

I do feel though that it is awful to turn our hand into a big bluff when it has some much equity and so much implied odds. This is not 22 its a priced in draw.

I don’t like the all-in check raise.

Evandro