Hand Discussion #12: No-Limit Hand Reading

BB has top boat with jacks, UTG has black Aces.
J9hh is also in BB’s range.

BB has JJ or J9. River play makes no sense w/ merely a flush or nines full.

UTG has a big overpair, probably with a spade. He bet river hoping that BB only had a flush, 9′s full of jacks, or a stubborn counterfeited 66, then felt pot committed. Jacks full is possible for UTG, except that he might have raised the flop w/ top set, and the fact that BB crai on river makes it likely that BB has JJ/J9.

oops, substitute “counterfeited 33″ for “counterfeited 66″ above.

I really need to work on my hand reading so I am glad for the exercise.

Going through the hand…

I expect the BB to call a reasonably wide range preflop. Probably something like any PP, SC’s, and maybe even some suited aces. I think he would tend to 3-bet AQ+ and JJ+ or so.

When he leads out on the flop into the raiser on this board I really am thinking that he has something like a flush draw, a set, or top pair(especially if he has a good FD to go with it).

UTG has a more narrow range. I think he would tend to make a raise with some strong flush draw. I think he has is most likely an overpair or AJ without a spade or a some overcards that have the Ks.

BB’s small bet on this board doesn’t really change my opinion of his range. However, with the SB being in there I would think he would be less likely continue to bet into 2 players with only a draw on a board like this. I think his range gets more narrow because of this. I think we are really looking at a range of like AJ/99/33/JJ.

UTG is continuing to call even though the bet was a little smaller. I don’t think he would keep calling here with just a draw so I think his most likely range is something like AA-QQ(discounting AA combos with the As).

The BB’s hesitant river check makes me think that the 9 kinda doesn’t make him that happy. If he has 33 his boat just got counterfeited(that has a way of making people unhappy). I think given his check that is a reasonable hand for him to hold. I think his range now becomes more something like AJ or 33 given the hesitation.

The UTG player is probably value betting a his entire range here. The only hand that he is worried about now is JJ and JJ probably would have bet the river. I do think that if UTG is value betting that he can bet more because he will get called by any hand in the BB’s range (BB just probably can’t convince himself to fold 33).

BB’s push, which is likely to be called probably becomes a value bet of some sort and I think that this makes his range one of the best hands. Something like JJ or AJ is likely. I don’t know that he is reading UTG’s range that well. UTG isn’t folding any part of his range either so I am ok with his call.

I think by the end the BB’s range is something like AJ(most likely with an Ace of spades…. sing it to me)/JJ and the UTG’s range is QQ-AA.

I expect UTG to drag this pot because I think AJ is more likely than JJ because I don’t think JJ checks the river(and there is more combos of AJ).

utg AJ,KJs,QJs, maybe As9c, maybe JJ, possibly QQs

I don’t think UTG has AAs or KKs, he would have led those on the flop. He may have AA or KK without a spade.

BB QJs,KJs,9cTc,8c9c,Jc9c,AsJs, AsJx unlikely, but not impossible, every once in a while BB flatted with QQs. If we knew the kinds of hands that BB would donk lead with, we could remove some of these hands.

It is going to chop a fair bit with both players having a J. The “worst” hand is going to be JJ999 for the most part. Every once in a while UTG will get in worse when the BB checks his “missed spade draw”. UTG will win slightly more often because there are more over pairs that hit his range for a better boat vs the number of times that BB turns up with the 9c. UTG isn’t going to show up with the 9c very often. If someone has quads, it will more often be the BB.

Considering the big betting and the scary board I suspect that both players have monsters.

UTG raising range preflop in my opinion from EP, considering he is a decent player, will be AA-1010 and AK,AQs and(AQ maybe). Considering the big betting and calling on turn and river on such a board I narrow his range to AK and AQ of spades and JJ, which is my favorite.

I suspect that the BB is holding JJ, A9 or A9s, and J9s. Considering the betting on later streets I put him on A9 with the A of spades, JJ or J9 of clubs which is my favorite.
It would not make sense in my opinion for the BB to raise all-in on the river when UTG is pot committed if he doesn’t have at least a full house with this board.

Going further on my reasoning above, I would not have bet the river if I were UTG, I suspect only to get called by a better hand.

I am very curious how the hand played out. Maybe I am totally wrong and I can fix something about my thinking about the game.

UTG looks like he has an Overpair, and is hesitant to commit, given the possible flopped flush. On the River, he doesn’t worry about the flopped flush anymore, and value bets.

BB is more of a problem, I doubt he has an overpair, or he would have raised preflop. I think it more likely he has something like AJ, KJ or QJ, or JTs, but it’s possible he something like A9s, T9s, 98s.

I would guess UTG wins, but wouldn’t be too suprised if BB shows up with a 9.

UTG has A9.

BB has AJ.

BB :A9 with As,JJ
UTG:AA without As,KK,QQ

BB most likely won the pot

This is nowhere near as straight-forward as it seems and depends a lot on how good UTG and BB are.

If UTG is any good, and expecially if BB is, he isn’t value-betting much here because lol @ BB calling any $$ with a flush here.

BB’s range is a counterfeited boat, a flush that’s no longer good, top boat and J9. Maybe As9x. Given the size of his turn bet, though, if he’s any good, I’d lean heavily towards J9 and JJ.

Again, if he’s any good at all, he never has less that JJ after the river c/r and more likely J9.

UTG probably has KK/AA with a spade because most TAGfish suck and he just thought “zomg now I have a boat” and bet, even though BB never calls with a flush and rarely has just a J anyway. Possible he was tarping on the turn with JJ and that’s just bad luck.

If both players suck, throw all that out the window. Then we land in a world where BB could have been (stupidly) value-betting Jx the whole way and now he thinks “ZOMG boat!”. And UTG could easily have Jx or an overpair. He’d have to be pretty spewtastic to bet a slow-played flush on this river.

Pretty much agree with Triplekill. I guess I think that BB is most likely to have a 9 with a spade. Probably the ace of spades.

I think that UTG won pot with 999QQ, BB had 999JJ, and SB missed nut flush with AsXx.

preflop
UTG TT+, AQs+, AKo
SB who knows
BB 99-JJ, AJs+, AKo, KQs (no reraise — not QQ+)

flop
SB AsXx due to check call.
BB AJs (not spades) or JJ. KsQs would check raise?
UTG QsQx overpair with decent flush draw.

turn
SB AsXx abandon flush draw with possible full.
BB AJs seems likely because JJ would probably slow play boat.
UTG QsQx. 9xXx probably not in BB range. Flopped flush would have slow play flop?

river
BB Induces missed flush bluff or flush value bet by checking. Check raise with 9′s full of J’s.
UTG Value bets 9′s full of Q’s. Can’t second quess possible quads when already pot committed.

UTG: red QQ
BB: AJ w spade redraw

If the BB is married to Elaine Vignealt, I put him on quads!

Preflop Range
UTG range: anything with EV+ including AA and KK
BB range: anything with EV+ excluding AA or KK
SB range: anything with EV+ excluding AA,KK,QQ,JJ

FLOP action:

Why BB is not checking to see continuation bet from UTG?
BB hit flop hard but not hard enough to feel safe with this board ,opponents hand range and actions.
Flop bet is protection which eliminates free drawing. Opponent’s calls give him information where he stands.

BB’s range:
I see two categories.
If BB has JJ or 99 or 33 flop calls tell him he is sure against flush or flush draw with a minor possibility of set.
If BB has As and J, AsKs or AsQs or KsQs calls from BOTH players indicate that his against UTG set or SB straight draw or low set.
BB range: JJ,99,33,As Jo,As Ks,As Qs,Ks Qs

UTG is solid player .Calling range is more narrow than betting one.
His flop call and preflop openning narrows his range to higher degree than BB.
UTG range: AA,KK,JJ,As Ks,Ks Qs

SB range: TT,AJ,33,99,KJs

TURN
9 on Turn is blow to nut- flush, even bigger to flush,str8 draws(SB folds).
SB range: TT-(possibly Ts Tx)

BB small bet on turn is way to extract more money with JJ pocket.
The same bet with Ks Qs pocket has different meaning.This old question: where I stand?
More precisely Am I far behind or far ahead with flush?
Because UTG is in position and bet is small, UTG’s turn-call did not answer BB’s question but just narrow UTG hand range..UTG is on draws with As Ax or he slowly play monster JJ
UTG range: As Ax, JJ,Ks Qs
BB range: JJ,Ks Qs,33

RIVER

Unexpected 9 on river is even stronger blow to flush holder, 33 pocket chances and big push for AA or KK holder.
The question about all player ranges can be translated into just one question”
What means river (allin) check-raise?

The key point is: BB has better read of situation than UTG.
BB betting rather than calling mode on flop and turn accomplished one thing.
UTG is solid player which translates into wider raising range vs narrow calling range.
My assumption is that BB can have not just good read but great read on UTG pocket.
If BB has JJ he knows UTG has AA pocket.
UTG had position advantage but did not take risk to take advantage from his position on because of ‘scary board’.
River 9 change this scary board into ‘friendly board’ for UTG.BB check make this ‘welcome board’.
UTG river bet is statement pot is mine I have AA or JJ.
BB check raise(allin) is statement I know you have just AA but I have JJ -complete ‘nuts’.

BB has pretty good read on UTG pocket.
There is a small possibility that check-raise is a bluff and his holding is Ks Qs.
Why?
The board itself was roller-coaster full of twists- changing a lot the whole situation:
suited flop,(99)twists on turn and river plus swelling pot, and commitment on river.
Magnitude and frequency of such twists make solid player tilt -disintegrate his logic and discipline.

If BB had Ks Qs in his pocket he had nice roller coaster ride.
On flop he has nuts with straight flush possibility.
He plays his hand straightforward.
He bets -protecting his hands against only 4 remote threats: As Ax,JJ,33,99.
Turn is frustrating and make his situation much worse. The magnitude of threats increases tenfold.
River is blow to his hopes to win pot by showdown.
Bluff is his only chance.
He “knows” UTG holdings- AA. UTG pot commitment and AA holding make him really bad target to bluff.
But his frustration make him execute the bluff against his logic.
Final answer:
UTG: As Ax, JJ,Ks Qs
BB: JJ, Ks Qs
SB: Ts Tx
UTG wins pot with AA.

UTG: AJ is all I can really put him on,
BB: most likely some SClike J9, T9, 98
SB: whatever, some stupid draw probably

It’s just hard to put UTG on a big hand like AA-QQ or a set given the texture of the flop, he’d probably raise those to protect his hand. If he just calls he’s giving SB great pot odds, and BB infinite odds. AJ he might want to go for pot control instead, and the bet on the river is to get value from weaker jacks and perhaps smaller pp’s

BB’s check raise in the end is interesting – I can’t see him doing this with anything but quads, really, milking for money and hoping UTG has the jack, and the best way for him to get the money in is to check/raise all-in; if he bets out UTG is likely to just call.

UTG – AA-QQ (without the A,K or Q of spades)
BB – As9x or JJ

utg big pair AA,KK,QQ ONE SPADE BB HAS THE OTHER 9 ITS THAT OBVIOUS HE WANTED TO LOOK WEAK ON THE RIVER WITH THE CHECK.UTG FEEL FOR IT WITH HIS BIG PAIR FULL BOAT.LOL

BB has A9of spades or or QQ w/ spade
UTG has KJ AJ QQ (no spades)

BB wouldnt sensibly reraise without better hand than JJ-full house

Just adding BB may also have JJ

haha nm, my hand analysis didnt make much sense in regards to “weaker jacks”… too tired :@

BB: 9cTc
UTG: AsJx
SB: Kc3c

There are few more possible holdings for the BB – 93s, J3s, or A3 with A of spades which will somewhat justify the preflop call and the flop betting. His river play, however can only be made profitably if he beats nines full of jacks.
UTG’s range that justifies the betting on all the rounds is definitely JJ+ (and somewhat unlikely As9c)
I wonder why noone puts BB on a desperate all in move with a flopped flush, trying to represent a 9.
On the river, UTG is clearly value betting, but I definitely think that if both players are good, and with bet, bet, check raise sequence for BB, he will win the hand at most of the time. His 1/2 pot sized bet on the turn indicates that he has a lock and is not afraid to give his opponent good odds for the possible flush draw.
I will give 3:1 to anyone willing to bet that UTG has the winning hand.
If I’m right that UTG has a QQ+ and BB beats that, both players played it well on the river and decent on the previous rounds.

I don’t think JJ is in BB’s range at all–he would raise both for value and for isolation against the bad player in the SB. I also don’t think he risks a check on the river with JJ–that would be pretty bad in my book.

I think his range includes AsJx, KsJx, As9x.

I think UTG’s range is mostly overpairs without a spade, but he could also have AJ or KJ.

I think UTG wins the pot. I think BB likely overplayed his hand, and if he didn’t, I think his river check was a mistake.

I’m going to go out on a limb…

BB has J9 or 99; UTG has 8sTs or TsQs. BB wins.

Also, to above poster: nobody is putting BB on a flush trying to rep a nine because trying to rep a nine is insane.

When would you ever give someone credit for a nine here? Or, enough credit to fold a jack? I’d say never.

Arthur: BB has five nines? Pretty awesome.

On the way it played out, think UTG has As 9c and BB had some kind of medium pair TT/88/77/66.

BB’s check/raise on the river makes no sense if he does have the 9. UTG has given no reason to believe he’ll bet the river let alone call a check-raise. I think by the river BB had put UTG on an overpair and decided the 3rd 9 would give him an opportunity to win with his weaker hand.

Probably have got it wrong but that ‘s what it looks like to me

Oops… I guess I should finish my first cup of coffee before committing mental misfires to posterity… and never mind that I’m only one swallow further along than I was when I poked the submit button.

BB has J9 or JJ.

BB has AJ, with A=spades. UTG most likely has an overpair, like KK or QQ.
I don’t think BB’s hesitant check on the river was a sign of weakness, rather it was a struggling “how am I going to get most out of this hand”.

I think BB would’ve reraised pre-flop with JJ.
I think UTG would’ve raised if he had AA or a set
A c/r on the river with 33 would make no sense for BB (bluffing makes no sense as UTG is getting a good price to catch the bluff).
BB holding something like J9s, As9, is also possible, so I could put that in the range.

I hate to harass everyone, but bellatrix: Your range for BB doesn’t make sense. He obviously can’t have J9s. So you’ve narrowed him down totally to As9x?

I think UTG has AA-JJ. I think AJ unlikely unless maybes suited (obviously meaning no spade). I know he didn’t have AJo with As.

I think BB does not have JJ (though possible). I think As9x very likely hand, or K-7,9 suited.

I’m not sure how well played because I’ve never played 6-max online (yet).

Checking the river take some nice balls with a 9, but I think it was a good play. BB could very well think that UTG is thinking that he has a flush draw but hopefully a made flush, and the 3rd 9 was too much for him.

I would think BB was thinking that if UTG has an over pair or a jack, he will bet it if checked to and if he has less than a jack he will fold to a bet. So someone else said bad play checking on the river, but I don’t think so. I am willing to bet that BB won this hand and won it with the case 9, unlikely as the case 9 seems. Maybe he had JJ, but I don’t think he is check raising here without a 9 or pocket J’s.

UTG AA
BB JJ

I think bb has Jc9c. Before the river checkraise I put aj in his range, not after though. I think house is more likely than aj no spade since he bets over .75 pot on flop and halfpot turn. I think he did that because he feels the hand doesn’t need to be protected anymore. That betting pattern could also mean he is trying to get a cheap turn price with just the nut flush draw, but I consider it very unlikely both because he bet twice multiway and also because i put very few offsuit aces in his calling range preflop. Most winning regulars at this level fold A9o to a UTG raise even with the best relative position.

I put UTG on QQ with a spade or AJ with a spade. KK+ also possible. Rarely will he have a 9. Most regulars don’t raise with A9o UTG. They are more likely to raise 65s, and i don’t think middle pair, no flush draw, calls that flop, especially multiway. UTG will almost always raise a set or top two on that flop even 120 bb deep. I think AA with a spade usually raise the flop, not sure about KK. Until the river call, I would put the ace of spades without a pair in UTG range. I doubt UTG has a flush both because he chose to bet river as well as the fact he probably would have raised either flop or turn with a flush.
I like river checkraise if BB has JJ or quads because you make more against missed draws. Even against made hands you might make more. Almost every player will bet a jack or overpair on the river and call once they get checkraised, but might just call a river bet with a jack.

I would be surprised if the BB did not have the nuts, in other words, he has the 9.

I believe UTG to have an overpair, with a spade.

Jesse, my main guess for BB is AsJ, read the first sentence, but I was throwing in J9cc and As9x in for completeness sake. Any just why can’t he have J9cc? It’s not that obvious to me…

UTG flopped a high flush and slowplayed.

BB has either quads or at least 1 Jack.

small blind has one or 2 overcards (ace-rag?), less likely a small pp or a 3, no spade. we should criticise him for calling raises and bets with likely little equity.

bb has top pair or an overpair. he donks into a raiser on a draw heavy board suggesting a decent holding, slows down on the turn when the board gets even scarier and check-raises after completing his full house. whether his line was acceptable depends mainly on utg’s postflop tendencies (would he play aggressively with good and marginal hands, slowplay, etc). since utg played very passively, bb might have been able to get away with checking one street. I like how he stole the initiative, even if unorthodox and risky.

bb flopped the nuts with AQs+ and missed a value raise on the turn, at the latest.

edit, last paragraph: bb = utg

Oh god I can hand read but I can’t pull that one off

Both players should have at least nines full. BB can beat nines full and, realizing that UTG will value bet with a pocket pair or AJ, goes for a checkraise to stack UTG.

On the flop, BB’s range is fairly wide and can include stronger hands such as pair+flush draw, two pair, sets, OR naked one pair trying to take the pot down. I would generally discount a made flush because it is not very likely and a checkraise may be the better move.
UTG cannot give BB credit for a monster (yet) so if he has AA/KK with a spade, I think he’s going to try to force commitment with a raise. The board could get “worse” i.e. scary for either player by a 4th spade or paired card, so UTG with AA/KK/AJ + FD doesn’t want to wait. Neither does JJ/99. Hands that would flat call are QQ/TT with a spade, AJ without a spade.
based on the turn bet, we should remove the weak one-pairs from BB’s range unless he really thinks UTG is teetering on the edge and willing to fold a better hand. But his 1/2 pot bet appears to seek value. Perhaps full houses, As9x, AsJx would be a good estimate of his range. UTG’s hesitation and subsequent call indicates AsJx or overpair.
BB can probably narrow UTG’s range by this point, and if he has JJ/9x the river c/r AI makes sense.

UTG calls because he can beat 9′s full of J’s. But I don’t think he wins too often.

I think that the BB has a pair of 33 and I think UTG has AJ

bella: Jc9c makes more sense. That’s not what you said though.

UTG’s range (by the river) is a pair in the pocket(TT+), AJ might also be an option but they say decent players don’t raise with that from UTG, so it has to be a PP(including JJ), when he calls the checkraise. upto that point two overcards would have been also be possible, with at least one spade, and an attempted bluff on the river.
BB’s range is any nine basically. with a bad and loose player sandwiched in the middle makes probably even 93o a +EV call preflop with realitvely deep stacks.
ps.: UTG’s time-request seems like a ploy: at this point i’d put him on jacks in the hole.

(and now i go ahead and try to read all the comments..

Jesse, when I say J9s, I mean J9 suited, sorry, wrong notation, especially, when only Jc9c is possible.

ooops, Anonymous is me!

The SB has a 3 with an overcard, probably an A unsuited and no spade, or he was chasing a straight the entire time and still has no spade. The BB has a flush with a Q, K or A high. The UTG has a pocket pair 8/8.

BB definitely won this one. The big question is, why did he check-raise the river? He knows UTG will have a hand like pocket pairs or AKs with his raise early position. When the last 9 comes on the river, he knows UTG will not be afraid of J or flush, cause he will have the bigger boat. But then BB raises so he must have the case 9 or JJ. UTG would likely check behind on the river with a hand like AJ or KJ. BB probably has a hand like A9 or 9T (with one spade) to make him bet flop, or JJ but i think he would have bet on river with JJ.
when do we get the answer by the way?

oh yeah, BB could also have J9 which would explain his check on river and bet on flop.On the river hes wondering what UTG would call with when he has all the good cards on the board.
nice move with that check raise.
so: BB range (J9 , JJ, any 9)
UTG range (AA, KK, QQ) prob with a spade.