Hand Discussion #12: My Thoughts

I believe I forgot about J9 too. Would you call his preflop call a pretty standard play, Ed?

Very interesting hand. Thanks for sharing.

I wonder what you would think of a smallish raise on the turn. I think of it mainly as a bet for information, but it also makes a flush draw pay a little bit to see the last card. If he raises you, you can fold. If he calls you and then leads out the river, you can consider folding. With a hand like AJ, he will likely call the turn and check the river unimproved. On the other hand, he might also call the turn raise and check the river (assuming it is a blank and not the case 9) with trip 9s because he’s scared of the flush. But that’s less likely than a hand like AJ, so maybe you can bet the river if checked to.

Ed,

This was a great example. Thanks for posting it. I recognize you didn’t like the way you played this hand. I’m curious about what a well played hand would have been. You mentioned you thought the River bet was too large, but I’m wondering about the Flop and Turn calls…

The SPR on this hand was about 11 for the BB, you’ve got an OP and a draw to a Q high flush on a one suit flop. What would be your target SPR against both the SB and BB? I’m guessing 11 is too high against the BB.

On the Turn, the board pairs making your flush outs less valuable, by calling the Turn bet, you’re a shade under 1/3 of the smallest stack which means you are committing, or close to it.

What was your biggest mistake in this hand?

Honest analysis of your own play Ed.

What I don’t understand is that you did not raise the bet on the flop. Should have given you more information about the hand of BB I think.

I don’t like BB’s check on the river. For sure I would have value bet.

I don’t agree with your comment to make a small bet on the river after the check of BB. The board is so risky that he can easily bluff on the river by moving all-in.. then you have to guess with such a board for your entire stack.

But well, it is easy to comment after you can analyze a hand for fifteen minutes. Still thinking about a horrible call I made yesterday, so..

Your river bet is, indeed, awful.

If your opponent has 1/10th of a brain, he knows that you have exactly QQ+. Why is he calling with a flush or even a J?

I think your turn call is very bad, too, obviously. You are hoping to make a flush that you won’t get paid off, are hoping villain doesn’t bluff the river (or hoping that villain is smart enough to realize that betting AJ with the As IS a bluff on the river and therefore not value bet you), etc.

You don’t provide reads here, which makes the hand-reading exercise a bit contrived — for example, a very basic read is whether a player likes to donk draws, or big hands, or both, or whether he likes to check-raise draws, or big hands, or both. Yet you do not provide this information (and making a claim that an unknown’s tendencies for either are commonly known probabilities is not wise).

I didn’t comment, because somehow the BB’s half-pot turn bet and check-rise on the river brought j9 instantly to my mind, and I remember reading somewhere on the forum that it’s easy to tell the hands afterwards, so I though ‘what’s up’ and didn’t want to write idiocy.
For the UTG up to river I expected a big pair, but the river bet looked like a flush (AKs for example).
I guess I shall work on selfconfidence LOL.

Most poker bloggers like to post hands that they played well and either won, or lost to a bad beat. Usually they don’t post hands where they played badly.

Thanks Ed for the honesty, it’s good to see that you occasionally play as badly as I do most of the time…

I didn’t really expect QQ+ from UTG, I would probably have raised that flop since we have position.

“For the UTG up to river I expected a big pair, but the river bet looked like a flush (AKs for example).”

I don’t get it – why would a flush bet that board? He’s not getting called by anything worse there.

Interesting hand

Ed,How AA or KK in your pocket will change your game? – no change

“why would a flush bet that board?”
?? I don’t know but that’s what I thought when I first saw it. Looks silly idea to bet flush on that board. So I wrote some idiocy in the end

“Your river bet is, indeed, awful.
If your opponent has 1/10th of a brain, he knows that you have exactly QQ+.
Why is he calling with a flush or even a J?
”
Answer to BilboSan’s question:
A few players will do crying calls.
More players will bluff check-raise your bet especially with your “exactly” attitude.
More players will bluff check-raise your bet because of hopes,tilt and frustration.

Why?
Suited flop, turn and river twists.
This type of board always creates roller-coaster with player assets on every street.
For example: Imagine situation that BB has flush with AS Ks .
In this scenario BB has roller-coaster downhill.
BB hits flop very hard.Turn card and especially river one are nightmare to his dreams.
he knows exactly UTG holdings.His betting on flop and turn define UTG hands perfectly.I agree.
But UTG can not have so exact read.(betting range vs calling range).OK
BB is committed, he knows he is hopeless loser.
Frustration or maybe tilt helps him to make hopeless bluff-check raise.
Hey,awful river bet can be tilt trigger.

…snip…
Against better players the whole hand is basically a clusterfuck for me.
…snip…

I’m just not so clear this is true. Better players are more than capable of firing at a scary board with the naked As or a couple of other holdings + air. Either calling the turn or raising the flop and making that the last money you put in isn’t so bad. This is 1/2-6max, not 5/10 full ring.

On the river, wtf. Both of you should be shoving for value.

>> I also suck at multitabling still.

well there’s always going to be a brain sacrifice the more tables you play. 6 table poker ain’t like chess where you have like 10 minutes to make a move ;]

I’m thinking that there’s a different skill that you need to master which probably involves doing a lot of homework, working out common yet complex patterns and figuring out how you play them ahead of time so that you win them 2/3 of the time.

I think you need to accept the fact that you’re always going to be on autopilot

I don’t play much online. So his river bet is bad because an opponent is going to fold a Jack to it?

…snip…
I don’t play much online. So his river bet is bad because an opponent is going to fold a Jack to it?
…snip…

A J never folds there. I really disagree with BilboSan on this one. Very, very few players will get away from a J in a 6-max game. The ranges are just naturally wider than in a FR game and the players are more aggressive.

Here are a couple of scenarios:

If BB flopped a spade flush, he can’t call a bet here for the most part. Or at least he has to think pretty hard about folding. If Ed is sitting on some unmade hand that he was calling with position, he’s going to be able to move the BB off his hand a lot. If Ed is sitting on AsX or even KsX it is in his interest to call the BB bets and let the SB bloat the pot. When his spades don’t come in, he can make a bluff that looks like a value bet very easily.

Ed can be on 8Ts and be making the same play.

Ed can be on TTs. For the most part Ed would check this back on the river, but not everyone is Ed. TT could be looking for the crying call from a flopped spade flush.

Ed could be on AJ, QJ, KJ, TJ and sometimes J9s and any J now chops.

A J just won’t fold.

For the villain to have a J, though, he probably has to have a spade if he’s donk leading both streets. That’s a little tougher because most players won’t call offsuit J’s in the BB. But, the weak SB player complicates things because he’s going to bring along some weaker hands. AJo, TJo and QJo just aren’t out of the question even though they aren’t particularly likely.

It’s no guarantee that 2 spades aren’t going to look you up there either for many of the same reasons. The spades are often going to fold, but the bet is fairly small and AsX or KsX is a big enough part of Ed’s range that you could consider a crying call. You’d hate it, but you’d have to think about it.

If this were a full ring game then all of this is out the window and BliboSan’s QQ+ makes much more sense.

I think you are ahead of the BB’s range on the flop here, with about 60% equity against his range {33,99,JJ,J9+,all spade Ax, SCs, and 1-gappers}. The BB could be donking out with any J in his preflop calling range, hoping to fold out your overs so he can valuetown the SB. I agree with Pim that a flop raise would have been the best play here, and would have allowed you to get away from BB’s 3-bet. Your flop raise might have even folded out the BB.

As played I do not think your river bet is that bad. AJ is still a big part of his range here, and will definitely call the half pot bet, though I see the merit in a slightly smaller bet to pick up some value from the flushes. I do not see any way you could have played the river that would have let you get away from the hand. With just over a pot-sized bet remaining, you just can’t check behind QQ on that board when your ahead of 90% of his range. As you said, a smaller bet would have been a bluff inducer so you would be committed to call even then. Though I do think you passed up a cheap opportunity to define your opponent’s hand on the flop.

Hello Ed Overall your example was great.
One thing missing was “short” description of player styles.
You described BB,UTG as decent regulars at on 1-2$,6-Max FullTilt.
Limit and poker room is critical contexual info.
However an adjective “decent” is very little information to project card ranges.
Your “decent” tells me that players strategy is succesfull at this site and limit.
Your “decent” did not tell me anything about specific strategy(ies) which make player succesfull.
So basically your “decent” is no info to project card ranges

But one more adjective to describe player profile will make big difference.
If you will specify additional adjective something like ( LAG,TAG,predictable,mixed ,strighforward,tricky,optimist,passive,agressive).
Two adjectives will make BIG difference when making more exact assumption(reads).
Two adjectives will make possible to project what strategies player takes to be succesfull.
The specific strategy will get you closer to read his pocket.
Example: BB,UTG are decent LAGs.
What is strategy of DECENT LAG on 1-2$,6-Max FullTilt?
Well,a decent LAG has to be tricky and more than average frequent bluffer and semi bluffer. He is better than average hole reader.
He needs such attributes to regain value lost by entering game with “weak hands”
Huge benefit for LAG is that he can play monsters straightforward without losing value in contrast to tight players.
What about card ranges?

I can expect wider range of pocket-cards not only preflop stage but later streets also.
etc..

However there is possibility that this is communication problem.
I read all comments and I do not see anybody to complain about that.
English is not my native language and I do not play on tilt.
I see that your “short” description of players was not obstacle at all to conclude very narrow hand ranges and specific range of actions to choose.