Hand Discussion #11: Blind Versus Blind On The River

This IS a good hand to discuss because its a very common problem, at least for me.

Based on the turn call, I put villain on either a straight or flush draw. A7, 97s, 87s are strong possibilities. There aren’t any hands you beat, and I’m not at all sure you’ve represented the flush by betting on the turn, so a pair might very well call your bet.

I would probably check/fold, but this is coming from a losing no-limit player, so folks’ are likely better off doing the opposite of what I would do.

I don’t he has a decent pair (on the flop) or a straight/flush draw; he’d have bet those. I’d also bet my worthless hands on the flop if I were BB, so I’d say he has some kind of marginal hand (55, 6x). I’d have bet the flop myself with the Ad5d.

The river doesn’t change a lot; anyone would have bet their flush draw on the flop so nobody has a flush. I doubt he’s folding a pair on the river, so I think I’d just c/f.

It’s brutal without any reads - against your average loose/passive I’d say we’re either crushed by two pair or a straight or being chased by a draw.

Against a more solid thinking opponent, probably the same range but adding things like T9, J8, etc. You’re turn bet can really only represent a failed flop check-raise and unless villain knows you to check-raise he’s going to have a hard time believing your bet. I think he can certainly expect you to be betting your big pairs on that flop given how drawy it is.

River could be a good spot to double barrel and/or check-raise bluff depending on your history/read of villain. Again, a lot of it depends on your history with the guy, but as played I’d say our river choices are to just roll over dead or keep up the charade of a slow played monster/flush draw that just hit. Unless the guy’s stubborn it’s going to be hard for him to call significant heat with anything less than two pair on this river, imo.

I would put him on some sort of middle/small pair type of hand. I figure he would bet the flop with a flush draw. He probably puts you on a hand like unimproved overcards because he figured you’d bet the flop with any pair or draw. I don’t think the fact that the river is a heart would scare him as much as the fact that it’s a king.

I’d agree with what threads has here. As far was what I’d do at this point, I’ve always thought firing here would be a good bluff; however, the more I experiment with these things, the more I’m seeing people tend to get extremely sticky in bvb situations.

The play so far…

I don’t mind the raise because it’s suited, but I generally fold weak A’s oop if I think anything of the BB at all. If you’ve raised into him and he’s folded at all, I like the raise. If he’s sticky at all, this hand is going to be very tough to play oop. BVB I’m looking for high cards, so I raise K9+, A8+, pairs. Often tighter if the BB is tough. I really don’t like playing OOP when ranges are perceived as being so wide. You just never get credit for anything in the blinds.

On the flop, I like the check. This board really connects with his calling range. Also, if he’s decent at all, he’s also going to float you like crazy on this flop and take it away on the turn or river.

When he checks behind, you don’t know much about his hand except that he doesn’t have 2 pair and probably doesn’t have a set. It’s also less likely that he has A9. He’d likely bet that too. Other than that, his range is still really wide. I don’t actually think he bets a draw all the time. The pot is still small. Small pots tend to promote more conservative draw play.

I think the delayed c-bet on the turn is fine. We can be pretty sure he has a pair or a draw. But, he could be as weak as A-high. You’re hand isn’t screaming strength.

Going forward…

On the river, I would give it up if I thought the villain was decent and I would pot it, or there abouts, if I thought he was weak.

If he’s weak, the board just got really scary and you can take it down a lot.

I’m pretty sticky in the BB and I think I’m a decent blind player. So, if I am the villain, I think you are a good/tricky player, and that K drops, I know it is an excellent bluff card given that the over card dropped and the flush completed. I figure you didn’t have a draw because you’d fire that on the flop. The K might have hit you, but maybe not. So, if you bet and I had a 9, I would definitely call. In fact, I would check the flop specifically to induce a bluff. Now that another bluff card has dropped, I don’t think I’d necessarily give that up. If I had an 8, it would be close, but I would look you up some percentage of the time. If I had air, I would raise you once in a while as it’s a good rebluff card for me as well, especially if you are sitting on a weak K.

I don’t play in these games so I don’t know what type of player you find typical in these games, so I have less than a generic read here.

He certainly knows the 2 din’t help you on the turn. His range is still pretty wide if he doesn’t want to be pushed around. I think QJs (not hearts) or offsuit besides small pair,maybe lower connectors for a pair. If he is trying to read hands, he might very well think you waited to see if a heart or straight card came before you bet the turn. So he calls with like QJ on a gut shot figuring he will go with a heart like he has the flush, figuring you don’t.

Or something like J8s as well. Calling that size turn bet I don’t see him folding. Maybe with a riduculousy large bet but that doesn’t seem prudent. I think I would check and fold, but I probably wuss out too much here.

On the earlier streets, I would have played pre-flop and flop the same. I think I would have checked the turn planning to bluff raise if he bet. If he reraised dump it. If he called it then I would, what on the river? I don’t know, put myself in a pickle here. I hate being out of position. I”m not good enough to make up that disadvantage. If he called it,bet 2/3 pot on the river and hope?

The raise for value pre-flop is reasonable. I like the check on such a coordinated flop, and the lead out on the turn (since you likely have the best hand… at least until he calls).

In a way, it’s easier to read what the villian doesn’t have than what he does. Very unlikely he has a pair of 9s or better since he’d need to protect that on the flop in position. I doubt he has a flush draw or a 7 for an open-ended straight draw because most players would semi-bluff in that spot after you check. The call on the turn means he has something semi-weak: a pair of 6s, maybe 8s, 2s, or overs with some sort of draw. A monster (like a set of 2s, straight, or flush is possible, but highly unlikely) — again, most people would protect against the draws on that board. Overall, I’d say he’s quite weak.

If he’s reading you, he should be putting you solidly on decent overcards (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc) or maybe a small pair (55, 44, 33). So the king on the river should scare the crap out of him if he has a weak pair.

As far as what to do, it all depends on if you think you have him beat or not. I think things are slightly in favor of him having a weak pair, so I like a bet here to represent a pair of kings. It’d be really hard for him to call, he’s unlikely to have a strong hand (unless he had Kx and hit), and it is possible he has a small pair that has you beat. So I say bet between half the pot and the full pot, and fold to a raise. My second choice would be check-fold.

I’ll go against the grain here though I do agree with Todd (above) that this is not a hand I might be playing oop. But since you did I will make the assumption that villian respects your strong agressive play to this point and is reading you at say 55+ or A9+ or K9+ out of the sb.

My experience at this level is that many bb players are calling a bvb sb raise with a pretty wide range - any broadway, any pair, any Axs, or any mid suited connectors even when they respect your play. His call on your pre-flop raise would initially confirm this for me - he is definately not strong. Assuming he the typical player though, he will be cautious after the flop - he will fold if he doesn’t hit, raise if he hits and the board is threatening, or call if the price isn’t too much on his draw.

On the flop is where I want to reconfirm my initial read and that’s where I’ll go against the grain. While the comments so far like your flop check, I would have raised pot+ (he does respect my play after all). His preflop call says he wasn’t strong so I want to win it here or get out before I am put to a bigger decision later. If he re-raises I’ll put him on his straight, trips/set, or two pair, confirming my initial read. Assuming, he is a typical player and not bizarre, he is a thinking player and will not slowplay here. He has to be worried about the possible flush and will re-raise so I’m out-a-there. (He might be semi-bluff re-raising with the flush draw, but that’s OK - I’m not wanting to go any further. That’s the problem with playing this hand oop). If he calls, he is still looking for a card and he is paying too much.

If he did call looking for that card, the turn looks like a miss for him so I double barrel with a good size bet. Remember, I have him on a draw now since he only called my flop bet. I’m betting he is folding.

But I really don’t expect that this hand would or should have gone past the flop. I’m either folding to his flop re-raise or he is folding to my big flop bet because it was too expensive. I’m confident in my read on him and what he thinks I have.

As far as the way the hand really went, I don’t like the turn bet after the flop check. The turn card doesn’t look like a good bluffing card to me since I have to assume he is thinking I have at the least, big cards adn that the deuce could not possibly have helped me. I would c/f the turn to any bet - even to his possible semi-bluff (do I need to say I hate playing weak cards oop). I had little invested at this point so a check fold on my part is fine. I don’t think he will check behind me sensing my weakness, but if he does, I’ll see what the river brings.

The river presents a different story now. He checked behind me on the turn and now the river is scare card - but it is scarey for him as well as for me. I’m check raising big here on a bluff. If he doesn’t bet, that’s fine. I still have hardly anything invested here and at least get to see his hole cards.

I don’t like the turn bet on the 2d. I think that the best play was to let the hand go after checking the flop… You did let the hand go on the flop but changed your mind on the turn. But basically what has changed?
I think that you are betting 100% of your range to take the pot on the turn given that he checked and he would call with anything better than ace high. So even if you try to represent a missed check-raise you don’t have any credit for it.
There is not much reason for him to bet a nine on the flop, this board is absolutely scary and he’d check hoping to get a couple of blanks and keeping the pot small. The deuce is a blank hence the call with any pair.
A draw is a bit strange because he could have raised any of the two streets as a semibluff because you must be weak here. If he is reading you as weak he can’t expect any value if he hits and will have only one shot to push you off a possible weak pair.

So this king is still a scary card and I think that you could use it for a second barrel. But a strong one so that he’s got a tough decision. This is a risky play because his line looks like a bluff catcher mode.

Here you’d know he’s not betting anything but a weak hand that he is turning into a bluff (in his mind) or flush (that I don’t think he has). So a check to showdown looks fine to close the hand (even if you are likely beat) with a resteal in mind if he bets.

Tell me if you disagree with anything!

With respect to the people who are saying that maybe they would fold this preflop (or would fold it if it weren’t suited). A5 (suited or not) is probably in the top 20% of hands or so in any reasonable ranking. When playing heads-up, it can’t be right to fold over 80% of your hands from the small blind.

Ace suited is a great hand for blind stealing, so I guess pf was fine.

Flop check was good, but turn bet was awful. That 2 sure didn’t help your hand and villain knows it. Just check and hope for a free card.

River is a good opportunity for a bluff. I think villain either has a pair or a draw. I bet half pot hoping he thinks I hit my draw and folds his pair. If he raises I fold.

…snip…
With respect to the people who are saying that maybe they would fold this preflop (or would fold it if it weren’t suited). A5 (suited or not) is probably in the top 20% of hands or so in any reasonable ranking. When playing heads-up, it can’t be right to fold over 80% of your hands from the small blind.
…snip…

Honestly, folding 80% is pretty close to correct if the BB is tough at all. You just can’t outplay someone out of position if you are remotely comparable in skill. You beat on the SB when you are the BB. The BB beats on you when you are the SB. Just the way it works. BVB is a battle of wills. It is extraordinarily difficult to win a battle of wills oop.

Also, I’d much rather raise 89s than A5s. The only flop you want to see with A5 is 55x or 234 or XdXd5. You don’t want to play a big pot if you catch an A. Catching a 5 is very difficult to play.

…snip…
On the flop is where I want to reconfirm my initial read and that’s where I’ll go against the grain. While the comments so far like your flop check, I would have raised pot+ (he does respect my play after all).
…snip…

That flop just crushes his calling range. I don’t know that c-betting that flop is going to be profitable.

I like the flop check/delayed c-bet if that is a line you show with made hands. I think Ed checks a lot of flops with top pair sorts of hands, so I think this line is a decent one for him. If you never show this line, then I agree that the delayed c-bet isn’t going to work so well. Given that it is part of Ed’s game, I think it would work well enough here.

Here are hands villain should NOT have:
Completed flush (bets out on flop)
Any straight or 7 (bets flop)
66, 88, 99 (bets flop)
TT-AA, AJ+, ATs+, KQ+, KJs+ (3-bets preflop)

Probably he has something like:
small PP (calls turn to see if you double barrel river)
one pair (something like T8, 65)

Here are hands villain does NOT put you on:
Any straight or 7 (you would have c-bet the flop)
Completed flush (would have c-bet flop)
66-KK (ditto)

Hands he could put you on:
Two broadway cards
Ax
22-55

how did I do??
wat

After the turn call, I put BB on a weak pocket pair (22-55), a 6 or a 8 (although he might bet them on the flop, especially an 8), a flush draw, or a 7. Maybe strong overcards like AK, AQ, AJ, and maybe a gutshot. Your turn bet looks very fishy, so he might well look you up light.

On the river, I just don’t know whether to take a shot or not. The key question is whether he will call with most of those weakish one pair hands or not. If he’s a good player, maybe he will, because your hand doesn’t particularly look like a flush draw that got there (why wait until the turn to semibluff?).

FIRST SUPERFICIAL ANALYSIS:

He probably puts you on a fairly weak range. Given that its blind vs. blind, he would probably feel that you would bet the flop with most pairs (A8, T8, etc.). Your flop check range consists of a lot of high card combos that wiffed (KQ, QJ, AJ) and now since the board is so coordinated and you’re OOP, you’ve decided not to c-bet.

He checks behind, and the turn comes a blank. You lead for a nice sized bet (a little over 3/4ths pot). He calls (doesn’t raise).

We can eliminate pretty big hands from his range, b/c he would probably try to build the pot by now, rather than just call. So hands like 98, T7 (if its even in his range), any set, can be discounted pretty heavily, IMO.

He would probably bet the flop with any pair as well, b/c his hand is vulnerable and likely good. The problem with the idea that he has a 7 is that most sevens also are paired up (97, 87, 76) and will probably call a river bet. The candidate hands would be A7, but you have an Ace in your hand, making it less likely.

At first glance, it seems that he has a hand he is probably not going to fold too often given that he has called the turn. He probably would have bet the flop with any two hearts or small PP given that he’s IP and your range is wide and you checked. Too many of his sevens also are paired up, and there is a chance that he checked the flop behind with a marginal pair, like second or bottom, and has now decided to go to showdown.

If he has floated the turn with a random hand b/c he thinks your range is so wide/weak, I would just give him the pot and wait till next time.

I think the BB plays very passive. It is difficult to put him on a hand. He could have low to middle pair or Ax or K8, K6. It all depends off course how he has been playing and if you have tried to steel his BB in this position earlier. However, to play this hand oop is tricky. I would say that you are beat and I would not bet the river and fold to a bet higher than USD 4.
I would also have bet the flop.
Also I think that you should avoid these marginal situations and just wait for the button.

my opinion on how you played the hand: checking the flop forfeit one juicy cbet: 75% of the pot. villain is on a flush draw most of times. take that good good money now.

on the turn, dont check: double barrel. 50% of pot is fine. most of times, with a draw, they will call.

lets push the reasoning to the last betting round: on the river, you got one alternative to value betting 10% of the pot, check call-folding to a scary HEART. because any heart does screw all your good expert play.

What is my read on the villain hand? he called the preflop raise with any suited hand and any small ace. since he didnt fold on the turn, he is exactly on any suited HEARTS.

What the villain does think you hold? he knows you cant hold a pocket pair because you didnt bet the flop and he subsequently knows you are on something ace high but no hearts… he called on the turn just for the heart coming in his dreams. he thinks howdy! i am gonna suck out on the river and win that pot! because winning at poker is winning almost all pots! yeah! sorry for the villain thinking part. I cant imagine a smart villain because i know they cant exist in reality.

just to know what my poker level is, let me tell you how I play: just this morning I played the following hand at 0.05-0.10: I was dealt AQo UTG and made a 6BB conventional raise… two calls (yes, TWO) I cbet the bicolor paired flop 788 75% of the pot. villain 1 goes all in… villain two folds. hero instacalls (I’m all in with ace high) I win a 15 dollars pot. so give no credit to the strength of my comments hahahah! good luck at micro tables mister miller

I raise more preflop. When out of position I add an extra BB, so 4.5 BB here.
We know nothing about your attempt to steal frequency or his defending range. I cbet here, we’re heads up. The flop doesn’t hit my overcards but it does it my pairs and suited connecters. Same range for the villain.
We bet the turn after a brick and he calls. I’m done with the hand. We can’t represent a flush, we’d have semibluffed with any draw so it’s KQ or something which he might already beat.

Todd said:

…snip…
On the flop is where I want to reconfirm my initial read and that’s where I’ll go against the grain. While the comments so far like your flop check, I would have raised pot+ (he does respect my play after all).
…snip…

That flop just crushes his calling range. I don’t know that c-betting that flop is going to be profitable.

I like the flop check/delayed c-bet if that is a line you show with made hands. I think Ed checks a lot of flops with top pair sorts of hands, so I think this line is a decent one for him. If you never show this line, then I agree that the delayed c-bet isn’t going to work so well. Given that it is part of Ed’s game, I think it would work well enough here.

QFT… I check a lot of flops too so I think it’s a fine. Really when I am OOP on a flop like this, I won’t c-bet THAT much.

Great hand Ed. This has really been enjoyable.

…snip…
I would say that the big blind plays in a way that I find fairly common in the 6-max $0.50-$1 games, so he’s not an atypical or bizarre player.
…snip…

…snip…
This is all due to the softness of the $0.50-$1 games.
…snip…

I take this to mean that, though you’ve provided no specific read, you regard him as an average, softish player for this limit. Sound right?

Ed,

Kinda off-topic, but if you check the flop with A9 in this instance and bet and raise the turn what read would cause you to call a raise and what would your river plan be?

I also like the turn bet(though up until now i’ve rarely done it myself), because after the c/c on the flop it’s pretty much “who blinks first”. and if i check the turn again it’s pretty much “all she wrote” coz villain will bet most of the time, and oop with a weak ace, i’d probably have to fold. the king i bet again, coz the the line so far is screaming i have overcards, which contain a king quite often, so i just hit my hand. oh yeah one more thing, his call on the turn doesn’t mean much(i also don’t think he’s on a draw), exactly for the same reason, he “knows” i have two overcards, and many players i’ve seen think along the lines: he doesn’t have anything, i don’t have anything, so it’s a 50-50 on the river, which is false of course, but i’ve really seen a lot of calls based on this principle, which - when asked later - were followed up by the comment “i knew he had nothing (and that’s why i called my nothing)”.

I haven’t played a lot of six max but this looks like a call/re-steal attempt from the bb, he could have a flush draw but its more likely he is planning on representing one if a heart comes. I would put him on a drawing hand like JT or QT maybe even KT. If a heart or a ten comes he can represent a flush or straight. He knows you raised preflop so he probably has your range pretty close to right and will steal on the river if he doesn’t make his hand.

So far I like the way the hand was played. I’m suprised the Turn bet didn’t take down the pot. I play at this level on Stars, and am amazed how often this works even after I’ve raised preflop, check the flop, and the Turn appears to be no help.

Since he calls the Turn bet, I put the BB on A9-T9, 87, 33, 44, 55, 77 or a flush draw Ahxh. I find enough weak tight passive players at this level that wouldn’t bet the flush draw, I can’t discount it. He might also have A8o or A6o and be planning to look you up since he doubts the Turn helps you. If he’s loose, he could have even more hands that give him a pair on the flop.

On the River, the Kh hits. If he is of the weak/tight variety, I think he would be afraid you had an AK, KQ, KJ, KT type of hand, and would fold his pair to a ½ pot bet ( I would fold if he raises). If he’s of the more loose variety that chases flush draws, and goes too far with pairs, I would check fold because I don’t want to pay him off for hitting a flush, and I’m afraid he would call even a pot sized bet with a pair, plus if I’ve read his hand all wrong, and he’s been slow playing a monster, I certainly don’t want to pay him any more.