Hand Discussion #10: On the Button

I’m feeling a little confused about what is going on in this hand. I’m pretty sure I would reraise a decent bet at this pot. I’d reraise to 115 planning to take down the pot right here most of the time.

achtung, ich bin ein noob.
that said:

I’d reraise $45 (tripling the bet, betting 1/2 pot), hoping to squeeze out the two limpers and see how it goes from there. If the limpers fold and I hit a spade on the turn, I bet out again, same goes for the T.

Mathematically, you’re still behind with a turn’d spade (I calculated this assuming the initial bettor was holding top 5%, if he’s looser than that, you’re doing okay, I think)….

Is this too SNG-esque an approach?

edit: I misread “Ac” as “As”, which makes me look like a fool, I guess. please disregard my comment and pretend I was not here ^^

I don’t think there’s any shame in giving the hand up. We’re in an awkward spot between the off-tempo bettor and the blinds. I do think I would continue with the hand, though.

The off-tempo weak lead is going to be one of three things: A draw, a weakish hand like a baby Ax or KJ, or a monster. Which ever one of the three it is, a player will typically only play one of the three this way and do so pretty consistently. If you had seen him play one of these before, you would have a pretty easy decision because his hand would be pretty obvious.

Given that we don’t have any sort of great read, I’m going to represent that I have the best hand and raise right around the pot. There is every chance that he has 66 and we’ll have to give up the pot, but in general I have found this bet to be worth while. My hand is a bluffing hand and I’m going to be able to shake the blinds if they don’t have anything too strong. They are in a tough spot given the action. If they are decent players at all, they aren’t going to get involved with weak top pairs. When I raise, I’m going to know pretty quick what sort of hand I’m up against. In my experience, a villain will typically fold out his middle strength hands on the scary board (this class of hand is least likely given the multiway pot), re-raise with his monsters and fold or call his draws. This isn’t 100% the case, but it does hold in a pretty high percentage of situations.

If he calls and leads the turn, I’m giving him credit for a big hand he smooth called my flop raise with and folding (unless I caught my gutshot, then I’m looking to get the money in right there). If he calls and it goes check/check on the turn, I am going to try to take the pot away on the river as long as the flush draw doesn’t come in. If the flush draw comes in and he doesn’t bet the end, I will also try to take the pot away. If it went bet/raise/call, check/check, check…, he doesn’t have that much and we can usually take the pot down if we make a bet in the 3/4 pot range.

In any case, I’m going to make a mental note on how this player played this class of hand. It is a pretty reliable betting pattern. The money I invested on the flop finding out how he played is often going to be worth spending if this player is a regular and you end up playing with him more.

Looks like he has a weakish Ace.

If he’s a folder I’d raise it up to $100, otherwise I’d go ahead and call to see if I hit the straight and to see his turn action. His bet is too low and, although we’re not getting immediate pot odds, I think that we could make up for it on the turn betting if we hit.

A call also keeps the pot size reasonable in case I want to try to take it away from him with a bet later, after I have more information (turn card, his turn action). Delaying your attack is sometimes more effective at stealing a pot than raising on the flop.

“I’d reraise $45 (tripling the bet, betting 1/2 pot), hoping to squeeze out the two limpers and see how it goes from there. If the limpers fold and I hit a spade on the turn, I bet out again, same goes for the T.”

A reraise to $45 would not be 1/2 pot. You’d be making him call $30 for a chance to win $140…so it’s really less than 1/4 pot. That’s an even worse bet than his weak lead.

Heh, it’d be nice to be able to edit.

Anyway, I forgot to mention the blinds. Another reason that I like calling is to cheaply see if one of them was planning on check-raising (or even calling).

Bluff raise now or take a cheap shot at hitting our gutshot:

Based on your read, I like raising pot sized or so ~$100 since his feeble bet might be broadcasting hand strength. If we fold out, great. I think I’d only use a single barrel because if villain or the blinds continue we’re toast. We are essentially resqueezing the blinds who more than likely will give up. I think we take it down enough to be profitable. Not sure about bet size. I think it has to be pot sized or all three (apparently) middling hands might ride along until showdown. If villain smooth calls our raise then we do have 4 strong outs and can reevaluate on the turn.

So we’re risking ~$100 to win ~$100. Nothing to cheer about. How often are we folding the field here? I’d say at least half the time.

With all that in mind, I don’t mind a fold here either….

The information you haven’t supplied here is what your table image is and on your read of the limper. I generally agree with the previous posters that we need some more information. Specifically, I’d like to narrow the limper’s range and find out if either of the blinds are slow-playing a monster.

My range for the blinds is pretty wide and they are likely looking for an excuse to fold, so let’s give them one.

My read on the limper looks like like a stab at the pot with a small suited ace, trappy weak lead with a set of sixes, or a blocking bet with a flush draw (suited connectors?). Now is the time to find out.

I’d raise here to about 60 or 65 (2/3 of the new pot). This does not yet commit us to the hand, but it puts us just past the threshold. It should tell us if the blinds are committed to the hand (hiding a monster), lets small aces fold, prices out the flush draws, reveals a set of sixes and gives us more information to base future decisions on. If we get a re-raise here, we have an easy fold. With a call, we can re-evaluate, fold to a turn bet or check behind on the turn and take a free look at the river unless we get a good read or hit one of the three tens we like.

You don’t say what position the limper was in but that he was a reasonable player, so I would rule out one of Todd’s suggested hands, the monster. Any hand that would have hit this hard he would have limp-reraised with 3 other players in a raised pot.

I’m thinking a small As or KQs,small pair,something like that. You observations of his betting patterns would make me think K and he is taking a cheap shot to see if you raised with QQ,JJ,or lower. I think most likey he would fold to much action, I would raise it up to 100.

I know the blinds are behind you, but I’m thinking same as the limper, a monster hand with this flop would have hit it before the flop. I would expect something like the hand you have, small pair, or just about any 2 suited cards.

After that it would depend on the action. If one of the blinds calls and a club comes on the turn I’m ready to jump but see what happens with betting, he checks a club i’m checking behind. Maybe take a shot on the river depending and of course, free card for the gutshot. If a blind calls and then donks if a club comes,without the straight I’m giving it up, I think. Unless I had a strong reason to do otherwise.

I would suspect a flush draw would be most likey hit by a blind, maybe with a pair with weak As or Ks. I have to think with fairly loose blinds, this flop, and you the preflop raiser and now reraising, I would expect the rr to 100 to take the pot now.

I don’t see monsters under the bed here and I think they , though always a little bit more suspicious with a button raiser, have to fear the preflop raiser with this flop. A weak ace might even fold, for sure a weak king. Depends if they have been loose after the flop in the past, or just preflop.

Of course, if the limper hit it with a big reraise now I would have to think you are beat. I certainly wouldn’t fold for that piddly bet getting more than enough odds to hit a gutshot. Calling would be ok, but with loose blinds and this dinky bet by type of guy you described, I’m thinking no one likes their hand that much and hitting the gutshot might not get paid off to make it worth it, so I would rather take it down here and if called figure I will probably get a free card if I want it.

Whoops, hit enter by mistake. In closing, I think betting 100 to win 95 here works often enough to pay. Actually, since I wouldn’t fold here I’m putting in my 15 anyway, so it’s almost like an extra 85 to win 95 or 110 considering if it works my 15 is no longer at risk.

There are times I would lay this down with 2 players behind me, but I don’t this is a blinds calling flop. So even though 3 is usually too many to bluff at, I think there is a very high chance of success here, like 75%.

Depending on looseness of players I might make the raise a tad higher here, but I like the size of 85 more, I think it is enough to get the job done.

jamleeco,

I wouldn’t rule out 66 giving him a set of 6’s. That hand fits his line well. Limp/call. Stick out a weak lead to induce you to come over the top. I would expect to run into that hand a fair bit in this situation.

Todd

Generaly I agree with Jamleeco so I won’t repeat it all.
But because you mentioned the pattern of his betting, then I think it’s quite probable that he has a monster.

Dubiousdrift,

I didn’t consider the commitment threshold here so much, this is a bluff, or a weak semi-bluff. I think this is one of those times I’m more worried about making them worry about committment threshold. I am strongly betting here that no one has a hand THEY want to commit with. So I don’t want to make the raise too small and slowly build a bigger pot for them to commit to later.

Ed didn’t give detailed reads on everyone, but I’m thinking his raise here says he feels he has average-at-least steal equity after the flop. I think this flop was made for stealing and his preflop raise made it a bigger one to steal. He did say blinds were loose and limper lets his had evaluation dictate his bet sizes, to me, that’s enough info to say bump it to 100 here.

Todd, good point. I am not ruling that out in my mind, but I guess I am pretty much in my decision here.

I think the chances he has that specific hand versus Ed’s observation he bets less with hands he doesn’t like as well is small. If he has a set and hits me hard for some extra money, good hand. If I had AQ in this hand with these players and this action, I would play it the same way and have fewer outs than I do know. Either way, I’m laying it down to a big reraise. If he just calls I do have 4 outs for the turn.

But I think there is a very good chance he’s laying it down, that’s why I would choose the raise.

jamleeco,

I would generally raise, too. If he plays back, I would expect him to play back with 66. Looking at how so many people, including myself, would play this hand, the weak lead is a nice tool to have in your bag. You should throw it out there once in a while.

Todd

I really don’t like the idea of a reasonable player leading out with a bet that is offering me over 6:1 to call, which is just about the right odds to call the gutshot draw, even better if one of the blinds hit a card and wanted to try to draw to improve from probable raggy holdings. That puzzling bet leaves just about every draw in the hand and at worst calling. It seems much more likely that the villian hit a set of 6’s, or limped with AA, and didn’t get the raise he was hoping for preflop.

Had he truly been a “reasonable player” wouldn’t he protect a weaker holding with a better bet?

The real problem is that information is severely lacking. You have to raise to get the information, no doubt. The stack depth is there to support the raise. (The problem for me is that if my suspicions are true, this raise is going to disappear into his stack quickly.)

I would pot raise if I felt I could move this player off a weak A or K, or middle pair. If either of the blinds come over the top, or the limper pushes back, I am done with the hand. If called, and my draw does not come in, I would probably fold to any significant action, or the board pairing.

If he is the kind of player who would not be moved by this kind of raise to let it go, either through good play or really poor play, its down to choosing between calling and folding. That is going to be based on any read I have on the blinds. If I think I will get to see the turn card, I will give the hand a call, and expect greater than the correct odds for the gutshot. If the blinds end up raising, again, I am done with the hand. If for any reason I expect the blinds to get more involved, I will fold right away.

Ack. Clearly AA is not likely…he did get the raise from the button, and two callers…ignore that bit.

Donk, which mainly leaves a set of 6’s. And he COULD have that, but I still think the chances of that vs. the size of the pot, the observations Ed made, I see this as a good chance to take the pot. Don’t outthink this guy. I throw funky little bets out there a lot with a little something, something. I’ve had guys look me right in the eye, say “yeah, I’ve seen that before” and fold when I had absolutley nothing.

I think assuming that bet is a monster is a mistake. Of course, I could be totally wrong.

Ya 2weiX ich bin ein noob also.

The limper’s small bet means he doesn’t like his hand, according to the read on him that we have so far. So if the blinds were not in the hand, I’d come over the top with 2/3 pot raise and hope to take down the pot right there.

The presence of both blinds makes it more difficult. One of them could easily have an A or a K. But with those pot odds I can’t see folding. I’d call, but fold if either blind makes a significant raise.

I think these sorts of situations depend on my table image, as there are several reasonable lines to pursue. However, in this case I think this is the perfect opportunity for a delayed bluff (call now and making a play on the turn) and let the bettor float a bit.

There are few reasons I’m making this play:

1. Pot odds are very compelling. I don’t want to get in the habit of folding my pre-flop raises cheap, other players will pick up on that quickly. I’m not recklessly calling any raise, but at almost 6-1 I’m not going away quietly.

2. I’m drawing to the nuts, and it’s not the obvious draw. Opponents are much more likely to put me on a club draw, making it more likely that I’ll get paid off if a non-club ten hits. If he’s playing something like K-10 or 6-6 the implied odds are huge.

3. There’s a wide range of hands that could be making this bet, and I’m last to act on the turn. If the blinds fold and the limper checks to me I’m going to make a play at the pot then, expecting to take it down a high percentage of the time. If I can get a tell when the turn hits, even better.

4. If I raise, and he decides to defend his hand against a flush draw, I’ll have to throw away my great draw.

5. There are players to act after me this round, and to me this is an extremely important factor on why I’m not raising. It’s probable they will both fold. But if one of them is planning on check-raising and I raise, my foot just got cut off in the trap.

To me these are all arguments for a call bluff, which IMHO is a great tool in the toolbag to mix up your play and throw observant opponents off.

- HJ

Put me in the calling camp. Don’t want to give up yet and if we hit our three outer (I don’t think the 10c is clean) then we may stack two (the set of sixes and the blind holding A10). Know it’s weak and know it gives more incentive for weakish blind holdings to come along, but I have to wonder what both blinds called with. Either of them could be the ones holding 66 and slow playing it. Any which way, I think I’m behind and I don’t like putting $100 of my stack into someone else’s just to prove I was right. Finally, in my games everyone assumes the button is stealing here so anyone with any piece (yes, sometimes even just the King) is not going away to a bet. I would almost never try a move from the button for this reason - the High Jack seat is the optimum for pulling this move at my local 2-5 game.

I call.

Villain:

#1 - Is a reasonable player

#2 - Usually bets his hand according to its strength

You have a gut-shot straight draw, your stack is deep, the pot is small relative to your stack, and the limper-villain’s bet is even smaller.

Both of the blinds are loose players. If you hit a straight against either of them and one of the loose players is still in the hand it may pay-off well.

SO… FOLDING IS NOT AN OPTION

So… it comes down to 2 options remaining, raising or calling.

Raising against the villain is probably the best option just against him. But you have to remember you have 2 donks in the blinds and who knows what they hold. The limper-villain bet small which at this point means he likes his hand… but not enough to build a big pot.

I would simply smooth call the limper-villain. If either of the donk-blinds raise after you I would fold. If a donk-blind raised, and the limper-villain re-raised thats an obvious fold as well.

Lets say you call the $15, and both donks call… that’s great! If the third club shows on the turn that would be an easy fold! If the board pairs on the turn that would be an easy fold as well. If you hit your straight on the turn then be ready to manipulate the whole group to make some serious cash.

Against the limper-villain heads-up a re-raise would be in order, but with the juicy donks involved, a call would be best… keep them in so if you hit your straight it will pay off well.

BTW, I wouldn’t put the villain on a weak ace. He’s a reasonable player like you said, he wouldn’t be playing a weak ace OOP… and if he had a good ace he would have raised… but he didn’t. I would probably put him on a flush draw doing a blocking bet with that $15 bet into you.

So, smooth call the flop… and hit your straight against the loose donks to cash-in.

Assuming you call, and the donk-blinds call if a blank shows on the turn and everyone checks into you then you can bet the pot to take it down then when you have the best info.

If on the turn you get serious action into you, and you don’t have your straight then it’s an easy fold.

You have position… you can collect information easily with a call and see how things develop. You don’t need to raise with position in this situation to collect information.

IMO I have 3 clean outs, and the odds are high that someone has me beat right now with an A, K or pocket pair. On top of that there is the flush draw. This is a dangerous hand where I need several thing to go right for me to win.

There is no indication that I can bluff out 3 other people, so I would rule out raising.

I can’t see that I have the right implied odds to chase a 10. If a 10 does hit how much action will I realistically get on my semi/large bet? And again, the club flush draw looms on the turn. So I can’t see calling.

So I would fold.

I concur with Mr. Curious…

Ducks,

…snip…
BTW, I wouldn’t put the villain on a weak ace. He’s a reasonable player like you said, he wouldn’t be playing a weak ace OOP… and if he had a good ace he would have raised… but he didn’t. I would probably put him on a flush draw doing a blocking bet with that $15 bet into you.
…snip…

I wouldn’t take a weak A out of his range. Lots of people limp/call with AXs. Once the blinds came along, he wasn’t getting such a bad price to see a flop. I think you’ll see things like As8s there a lot. Hit his hand, doesn’t love it, wants to know where he is. I’m not advocating this as a great play, but as one that fits the situation well.

I think calling is ok, but there are a couple of reasons I prefer a raise here. First, we get the chance to squeeze the blinds. There’s every chance that both blinds have better hands than us that they just can’t call with because the EP player still gets to act. This is a great situation for us to capitalize on. The second is that I’m not sure how good the implied odds are here. We need things to really go right for someone to pay us off on our gut shot. If we knew one of our villains liked to slow play big hands, I think a smooth call is very good. In this situation, we’re not so sure and we probably don’t have a lot of upside to pay for our risk. The good thing is that the risk is really quite small so it isn’t going to hurt us much.

Todd

jamleeco,
I agree with your response to my comments. I think we are thinking more alike than differently here. I guess I was thinking of the commitment threshold as being each of the opponents thresholds, since we are playing against two different thresholds - the blinds have roughly the same threshold and the limp/caller has a slightly higher one.

Probably the point we differ on most is the size of the raise. I would raise a little less than most people here, but that’s based on a couple things. My line is really meant to take the pot now or reveal a big hand in the weeds. The times I can spot the unbluffable hand, I can save 45 vs the raise to 110. And the raise to 65 is often good enough to get the job done. This based on some of my own experience, my usual table image (I tend to run tighter than most of my opponents) and an old 2+2 magazine article by Tysen Streib that dissected the anatomy of a c-bet. (Two Plus Two Internet Magazine, Vol. 5, No. 2 - the link is dead or I’d post it.) Basically bets beyond 1/2 pot sized are only fractionally more effective at taking down the pot.

I’m not building much of the plan around catching one of our three clean outs, but if it gets there, I can switch gears from steal to maximize.

Dubious,

we are close, but we do differ on the size of the raise. You definitely want to raise the minimum to get the job done.

But a raise to 65 (50 raise) on a 110 pot now makes it a call of 50 for 160. Now granted, a flush draw it won’t make a difference which raise you make. But at this price loose players might very well call to see if they hit their kicker and hoping maybe you’ll check on turn after a call.

Now their call will be a mistake alright(if you had the hand you are representing), but even so, the pot is bigger and I either show weakness on the turn or am now investing way more into the bluff (weaksemi). If they call because the raise wasn’t big enough I have induced them to play correctly according to the FTOP since I don’t have the hand I am representing.

And if someone is slowplaying a big hand you get hit on turn or you don’t bet and a weak hand (but better than yours takes it down). That’s why I like raising more here. I would go a tad larger than 3/4 pot before I would go smaller.
But I like the 100 size because it doesn’t look weakish or look so large as to be suspicious. To me 100 looks like what I want it to look like, I don’t mind taking the pot now but if you yahoos want to call my strong hand, go ahead. I think the larger raise combines raising the fear a bit and allaying suspicion a bit.

But Ed said this is not as much a right and wrong action choice so I am anxious to hear him weigh in on this with an insight to how his mind approaches it.

I like calling here with the intention of folding if you miss on the turn. You would be calling 15 to win 95 (and 2 blinds behind)….immediate odds of 6.3-1. If both blinds call it could be immediate odds of 8.3-1). Your chances of hitting on the turn are about what…….10%?…..of hitting the nuts its less….more like 8%. Obviously implied odds warant a call at a minimum. You guys all suggest raising to get the blinds out……..i think i WANT them in. I want to hit the long shot and get paid off big instead of for the measly 80 bucks. You’r calling 15 bucks and giving yourself HUGE HUGE HUGE implied odds…..especially if both blinds call.

Calling gives the blinds a chance to steal with a raise, but i’m willing to take that chance here. Call with the intention of folding if you miss on the turn. Also, maybe the turn will get checked around……this happens quite often…..especially when a weak bet from early position gets called. People check sort of like “let’s see who has the best hand” typed thing.

Anyway, this is just my point of view!

regards,
Joe

I’m for raising, but it’s a tough call as to how much. My raise size would be very much based on my read of the blinds checking the flop - is one of them setting a trap or did they miss it altogether? Will they fold to a bet or are they check-calling (or calling stations)? Most of us are putting the limper on the set, but two sixes are likely calling hands from the blinds as well. The SB esp. would have had the least incentive to call with a weak ace or king - assuming he is aware he’ll be out of position on the flop, he’s paying the highest price to see a flop as the initial limper & BB are getting a discount on their action.

All things considered, I’d probably raise to about 60 and hope to take it down right there. If anyone reraises I’m outy-no-doubty, if there’s more than 2 smooth-callers I’m probably done with the hand unless the miracle 10 hits, and if I get only one caller I’ll probably take another stab on the river or maybe bet a scare card on the turn(if the initial limper calls, I’m probably not putting him on two clubs unless I know that he plays King-suited hands).

jamleeco,
I too look forward to Ed’s reply

Another thing that we haven’t talked about is our own ranges here. My range is reasonably wide here but certainly includes AA, KK, AK and I would also play any of those hands for the 65 re-raise hoping to lure him into building a big pot. (and since 65 is easier to call than 110, I’m a little more likely to get action on my big hands.)

Lets have a look into the minds of our opponents;
The blinds: “I checked, there’s a bet and a reraise (to 65 or 110).” I’m either ecstatic or insta-folding. In a 2-5 game (at least the ones I play in) you won’t find the blinds making a move here.

The limp/caller: “I bet into the raiser with a weak bet and he raised, but not a ton. Is he trying to lure me in or is he bluffing or semi-bluffing?”

I guess part of the question here becomes, what does the limper think of us? How does the limper win a big pot here. In my mind, it’s very difficult for him to win our stack - whatever he has. If he has a flush draw, his implied odds are squat. If he has a monster, he won’t get another dime from us. If he has a marginal Ace or King, he won’t like another club. If he has a marginal hand and ends up winning the pot, well - sometimes you just get caught with your hand in the cookie jar and should help you win a much bigger pot in a couple orbits when you raise the button, make the goods and get called down by someone who’s convinced that you must be stealing from the button again. (this is 2-5 live FR afterall)

In the end, the bet size shouldn’t matter too much, but I admit to being a nit and wanting to buy this pot on the cheap.

This is not a great spot for a raise, drawing to only 3 clean outs and 2 people left behind to act.

It is, however, a fantastic place to call, with the intention of a delayed bluff on the turn if you get to play headsup.

Ed,

I submitted a rather lenghty response after Josh (dubious and shrike weren’t up yet, took me 10 or 15 to write) and it didn’t post. I was sent to some error page. this has happened twice before but post still went up. Is it floating around in your webpage somewhere or like in a dead letters office maybe? =).. joking but can you tell me what happened? did a diagnostic from error page and it said connection was fine.

…snip…
You guys all suggest raising to get the blinds out……..i think i WANT them in. I want to hit the long shot and get paid off big instead of for the measly 80 bucks. You’r calling 15 bucks and giving yourself HUGE HUGE HUGE implied odds…..especially if both blinds call.
…snip…

I agree that we would like to play for all of the stacks if we hit the nuts. The problem is that if either of the blinds have a big hand, they are most likely going to raise us off our gut shot and give us a raise we really can’t call. The only hand that may be a big hand that may offer us high implied odds is the EP player. So, if we end up with the blinds in the pot, I think it will enhance our implied odds somewhat, but it isn’t likely to be a gold mine unless one of the villains holds TcTx, which means of course that we would be drawing to 1 out for the gold mine.

Todd

Thanks Ed.

Don’t use up your valuable time. I was just curious what happened and if it was anything on my end, ie. taking too long typing before it’s sumbitted,etc.

A shorter version of my cyberspaced post–

I was responding to Josh saying “most of up are putting the limper on a set of sixes but..possible for..blinds as well.”

I don’t see why several are putting anyone on a set of sixes. By card distribution alone 66 is least likely pocket pair held by anybody,,more so than AA or KK cause of the action,,or QQ too. guess jacks are just as unlikely.

In this situation I think it’s most likely the flop didn’t hit anyone or hit them hard. I like raising because someone with a king or a weak ace is more likely to hit their hand on the turn then I am, and then I will be getting bet out of the pot. I like taking the $95 pot here because I’m dubious if anyone has a hand to pay off my gutshot very deep if I do hit it.

I believe a smaller raise because of the fear of a set looks weak because it is weak. I know 1/2 pot and 3/4 pot is not a big difference, but here I think it is big enough. My fear would be a weak looking raise might encourage a marginal hand to play back at me. If I get reraised then there goes my backup plan of a hopeful free card and seeing the turn and the river if I didn’t get the pot.

Even if a particular player is not folding i think the bigger raise makes it more likely he will just call and wait for you to lead on the turn. Either slowplaying or marginal, missed, and hoping it slides through cheap because his call might slow you down.

I know a bluff should be run at 1 or maybe 2 players, not more. But that is a guideline, not a commandment. I think in this situation, even though it’s 3 players, you have a good chance of success. Given the action, this flop with a bunch of callers, and position, I say use that position. There are a lot of hands the limper would have limped with then folded to a raise but would have gone ahead and called instead because he was getting 13-1 on his money.

And if the action makes them now not so sure your position raise was a bluff, they are most likely putting you AK. That’s what most players like to think you have after a raise. Or at least a strong ace.

I think ranges have smaller pairs and sc’s as likely as any A or K or even more likely.

Guess that wasn’t so short after all. Please excuse my jumping between 1st and 2nd person

Todd and everyone.
I still like calling. You say one of the blinds may wake up with a hand. Well if you raise and get re-raised you are going to have to fold…….costing you even more than if you hadn’t raised at all. this is a clear call unless you have reason to suspect you can raise 3 people off their hands with an AKx board.
just my thoughts though!
-Joe

I don’t have anything against calling here. It would be a good call. I just think the situation lends itself well to raising.

I’m not doing an exact calculation here, the reason I like raising is the combination of chances of taking the pot here, going after the pot before one of the blinds ( after a puny bet and call he might think his hand has enough merit to make a play ),getting a free card or setting up taking it on the turn, disguising my hand and having a bigger pot if I do hit

vs. the chance of a lurking monster reraising me and not slowplaying or someone reraising with a weak marginal hand after a bet and a substantial raise by the preflop raiser.

Another point the comes through, (and I’m guessing is one reason why it was posted to “discuss”) is how situationally dependent the decision is. All of you arguing for a raise make great points, but it just wouldn’t work in my game. You just could not fold three players with a CBet from the button in my game. Can’t be done. And if the goal was to fire a second barrel on the turn, well then the pot would be too big to fade some of them and you are still, after all, on the button so you must be stealing… My game the best move is clearly call and then, if you want to try a move, go for it on the turn so you are fighting for a smaller pot if it doesn’t go your way. Of course the upside in my game is when you are the one holding 66 on the button with this flop…

analyse of the hand by the numbers:

I am given 6.33 pot odds to see the turn (18%)

My chances to hit by the turn are 10% (4*2+2) by river or turn 16% (4 outs*4)

I have zero EV on this hand… If I consider that one ten is a redraw to a flush of spades, Its a world of s**t… please someone correct my number mistakes …

Given those odds… and:

a. the guy bet, so he DID HIT his flop in some way and
b. the blinds hand range are masked by a total fog of war but hey, those are only blinds (suited, connected, junky, lower and weaker than average)

well given this setup I must raise because if it seems a zero or negative EV situation when I call, its a winning situation when I raise given the huge fold equity provided by the limper’s not so strong holding (he just called my raise preflop).

Reasons why:

1. WHY IT SEEMS SEEING THE TURN WITH A CALL IS A ZERO EV DECISION.

a. the limper has cut my odds by betting 15% of pot… he does not hold a one card draw to a flush. because he didnt raise preflop he does not have a very strong hand. He can bet against chasers to taste the water, get visibility on the strength of my hand, so that he can escape the hand very cheaply if he feels I play back at his Ace or king (can he have a set of sixes? afterall he could limp with a pocket 6 preflop).

b. unfortunately I will not get paid correctly when I hit my str8 and one of my out (ten of spades) is a redraw… so no implied odds and yada yada they would not call or raise my turn or river bets…

2. WHY ITS REASONABLE TO THINK WE CAN FOLD THE OPPOSITION RAISING THIS FLOP. he bets when his hand suit him fine… I put him on a strong holding, but not so strong (ace something, king something) and suppose he can act with much cowardry if I play back against his flop betting, partly because I raised from late position preflop. So if I raise the flop I’ll

A/ I’ll get good visibility on the blinds and on the limper

B/ I have strong chances to rip that pot immediately if the limper and chasers completely feel I have a dominating made hand… and playing back is the most rewarding thing that could happen to my weak draw… calling is not an option.

CONCLUSION

1. I dont find any reason to draw with a call, hopelessly on that pot (no EV), one out is a redraw.

2. but I have three good reasons to semi bluff my weak draw agressively,

a. I raised preflop from a late position
b. Only if The blinds are not likely to be calling stations they will fold because drawing is not an option anymore if I raise this flop.
c. The limper in this hand… just displayed some weakness preflop and on the flop, his hand is weak or a monster (a set of sixes more likely) … often people open the flop with a top pair small kicker, small pocket pair to taste the water or a flush draw to one card just to win a free card on the next betting rounds. They will fold on the turn with a raise on the flop. They will sometimes fold on the flop.

to me, raising on the flop seem to be the most rewarding decision while calling is a mistake and folding is not a mistake… at all! I’d raise sometimes when I feel the limper is on a flush draw or a lower pair… fold most of times and never call at all in this situation!

Easy fold.

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I like the il professore’s analysis. But I still believe il professore is underestimating the implied odds if you hit your straight……while ALSO underestimating your exact pott-odds if both blinds would happen to call (8.33 to 1 vs. 6.33 to 1)…..and which would also increase your implied odds for this hand. This hand has huge implied odds if both of those players call.

I still like calling! Raising is so gutsy with a bettor under the gun and 2 players yet to act!……..this is not the spot to semi-bluff. Come on Ed Miller!….tell them this is an easy “CALL”! Are you committed to this hand?….not yet with a call……but with a raise you could be getting yourself into lots of trouble. Remember a huge part of this game is AVOIDING the tough decisions so you don’t have to make them.

The only exception is if those 2 players would be likely to raise…..and based on Ed Miller’s description its probably unlikely and they will most likely call.

CALL!

Oh shoot…….I didn’t even see Ed’s post…..sorry for my last post which was too little too late!

Hi jdk,

…snip…
I still like calling! Raising is so gutsy with a bettor under the gun and 2 players yet to act!……..this is not the spot to semi-bluff.
…snip…

I wouldn’t characterize this as a semi-bluff. I think if we raise, it’s a straight up bluff. No semi about it. For example, if we raised with 77, would we consider it a semi-bluff drawing to 2 outs instead of 4? Not in my view. So let’s call a raise what it is a bluff. For all intents and purposes, we might as well have 72.

…snip…
2 players yet to act
…snip…

The reason I don’t worry about these guys as much is that the UTG player gets to act again and has opened the action. This is SOOOOOO great for us. If it had checked around to me, I would almost never bluff at this pot. It is so hard to bluff three people, especially from the button where everyone is thinking your probably making a move and will call you down a bit lighter. The UTG player has handed us a terrific tactical advantage in that the players in the blinds just can’t call without good hands unless they are loose and terrible (at which point, you don’t need to bluff at all, just wait for a hand and they will give you their money). This is really the only thing that allows us to bet/raise here.

Todd

3 possible scienerios. The limper is on a flush or staright draw or else they have like K 10, A J, or something else that has your hand dominated. Except for the flush draw you are behind in the hand.

Smart thing to do would be fold.