Hand Discussion #10: My Thoughts
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I played an interesting hand last week that I felt could have been approached in a number of ways. To refresh your memory, here’s the story so far:
I was on the button in a $2-$5 game. A reasonable player limped in. I had noticed earlier that he tended to bet more when he liked his hand and less when he didn’t. I made it $20 on the button with Q
J
The flop came A
K
6
Here’s what I was thinking. I had a gutshot to the nuts, though one of the cards would put a possible flush on board. I had raised preflop, so I could reasonably be expected to have hit a flop of AK6. The bet was tiny (less than 1/5 pot), which would allow me a lot of flexibility. I also had the button, another plus for flexibility.
I had seen my betting opponent bet small several times with hands he was clearly unsure about. And twice I saw him come out swinging, and he showed up with sets both times. So I assumed that this small bet implied that my opponent was trying to figure out “where he was at” more than trying to disguise a monster. Since I had raised preflop, I thought the most likely hand for him was an ace, probably with at least a decent kicker (given past observations). I also thought a draw, particularly a small flush draw, was possible. And of course I didn’t rule out other hands like two pair, a set, or even a total bluff. I’d already seen him lay down top pair to significant betting twice. He showed his “big laydown” both times and the second time said, “I don’t have to gamble with you. I’ll just wait for a better situation.”
On the downside, his bet had squeezed me a bit, since there were two players remaining who could have checked a good hand to the raiser. But it was a small bet, so even if I called and it got raised behind me, it would be no disaster.
I didn’t really consider folding. The bet simply isn’t big enough. I have 3 outs to the nuts, I have position, I have credibility to represent a big hand, and I have someone who has already folded top pair a couple of times betting into me (and I figured top pair was his most likely hand here as well).
I thought about calling, and I thought about raising. There are two problems with raising, however. First, if I raise and then someone behind me shows up with a hand, I’ll have lost a lot. Second, this flop may not be scary enough to get my opponent to fold a hand like AQ or AJ. Perhaps he’ll worry about AK or a set, but perhaps he won’t. I was concerned that if I raised now and got called, I could end up unwittingly pot-committing him. It probably wasn’t a valid concern since we are reasonably deep, and he has folded top pair before in fairly juicy pots. But it’s a general thing to think about when considering a flop semibluff: If this bet isn’t enough to do the trick, but a future one might be, will my bluff accidentally build a pot so large that my opponent will feel compelled to call another bet? There’s nothing worse for a would-be bluffer than an opponent who says, “You gotta have me beat, but the pot’s just too big. I have to call.”
So weighing everything, I called. I figured that if the bettor had an ace like I suspected, the board was only going to get scarier for him. And if he had AT, maybe he’d catch two pair while I catch my straight. And if someone behind me put in a raise, I could fold and not lose the extra money I’d have to invest in a bluff-raise. Having the button allows you to make calls like this one, particularly against opponents who don’t make large enough bets.
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Tags: 2-5-no-limit, gutshot, hand-discussion, no-limit-holdem, on-the-button, poker
Ed,
I think that calling the flop and turn made it easier to bluff when the club dropped on the end. If you had chosen to bluff the flop or turn, would you have fired again on the river when the club dropped? Seems like the line is less believable as a club draw at that point.
Thanks,
Todd