I have read with some amusement the recent posts. I first heard of you when I read your small stakes “Red” book and I loved it. I have also been watching your videos on Stoxpoker. I want to thank you for all of your support and help in making me a much better player. As I now see, your advise is not for everyone, thank God. I beg all of you who question Ed’s advice and approach to the game to not read it, definitely. I shall maintain my illusion that his advise has helped me and I look forward to getting more from you.

Nice site too.

Thank you Ed, keep up the good work.

Frank

Before I answer I will point out that I am not an expert poker player, I am just looking at this from the theoretical point of view.

Even if you do the things that people usually talk about to decrease variance (play TAG instead of LAG etc.) the fact is, poker depends on randomness and because of this there is no way to really get away from variance.

In my work I deal with random number generators. I use both the “pseudo-random” type (which generates random numbers based upon a mathematical formula) and “real” generators based on some hardware assist (i.e. using A/D converters or some similar thing). And I can tell you, it is possible to see sequences of random numbers go “against you” for jaw-dropping lengths of time.

It’s kind of strange when you see this happen. You start to feel like the universe is “out to get you” somehow. But I have an advantage over poker players – I know where the numbers come from, so I know the deck is not stacked against me. That’s just the nature of randomness. That’s how it works.

So to succeed in poker in the long run, yes you need to work hard – but you also need a little luck. At the very least, you need to avoid extreme bad luck. Ed’s “Going Pro” series talks about how to maximize your chances, and he shows a real understanding of randomness. But even if you follow those articles you are not guaranteed to succeed. They just give you a better chance.

i have asked on this site a couple of times how to decrease variance with no responses. i guess the answer is simple enuf- fold in cases where expectation is even or close to even and DO NOT play in games against players who are at your same level.you bypass some profit but it is not just thrown away, it is “spent” to decrease variance and keep you in the game. i think trying to squeeze that last penny out of the game is not worth the swings.

i don’t know much about him but a couple times i have browsed Stoxpoker and read posts by and about “leatherass” and some huge number (100k+) of hands where he did not win and suspected he was playing others with his own ability.

also consider a teacher learning a new format will push the envelope and not just play for max profit.

maybe this isn’t really related and not quite logical, but i grew up pretty poor and didn’t even finish college. meanwhile, this guy goes to MIT and like quadruple majors and probably finished early. he’s probably got more brain power than any of us can fathom. i think it’s a lock that he can beat the games, and quite a safe bet that he’s going to succeed in anything he does in life, be it regular genius shit, poker, porn, whatever!

GO ED! i support you and bow to your greatness.

i’d bet he’s a bit desperate, desperate for attention because he wants help. i’d go as far to say that he’s probably struggling to beat the games, and since he can’t, he’s calling everyone else out to build his ego – “look, the great ed miller lost $1k in 25k hands, and i’ve [finally] won $1k over my last 25k hands!” – forgetting that it’s been quite a struggle, and failing to realize he’s deluding himself about his results, selectively remembering samples here and there to support his belief that indeed, he is a winning player.

nonetheless, i feel this gentleman is, as i said, desperate. he’s so desperate for a win, but he just can’t bring himself to do the work that some of us have, particularly Ed and Sunny because they are on a bit of a stage. And because he lacks the understanding of the fundamentals of success, namely hard work!, he’s on a mission to bring everyone else down, to point the finger and play the blame game, because that’s what he’s got to do to keep on living, to keep his belief/value system balanced and his reality in line so that his interpretation of the world still makes sense to him. so, instead of really working harder at getting better at poker, he works harder at deluding himself and goes out of his way to tear everyone else down so that in his world he still feels like he has control.

but he still wants to win, just like the rest of us, i suppose, and in that effect, all ted really meant to say was, “please help me!” “i’m so stuck in my world and my ways of thinking and i can’t bring myself to change and be what/who i want to be and do what i want to do, and now, instead of actually doing the work, i’m going to be childish and throw a temper-tantrum and try [desperately] to get one of you folks to pick my ass up and carry me because i can’t find and inherently lack the drive to do it on my own. humph! ”

we’re all human, quite fallible at that. although extraordinarily complex, yet our language fails to keep up with our multimodal means of layered communication, and sometimes our intentions remain hidden even to ourselves.

or maybe i’m the one that’s dellusional? hope i didn’t waste anyone’s time…

I’m fairly sure Ed has escaped the evil clutches of Malmuth & Sklansky and is going it alone (with firends). So no Vol 2.

Best

Jmes

LOL, I felt the same. And I agree with everything you said in your post.

A lot of people pay lip service to the word “variance” but don’t really understand it. I’ve said this before, but I’ll repeat it for the benefit of new readers. Imagine two absolutely identical poker players, playing absolutely identical games, full time, 40 hrs/week. One player can earn twice as much as the other even after -two full years-, just due to variance.

So, a 25K hand sample proves nothing at all about a players skill. Plenty of top players run bad for much longer than that.

http://www.stoxpoker.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23342