A Note About Pot Odds

Ed,

This is a great seven part series on NL, easily the best written and accurate short course I’ve ever seen.

Anyway, here’s a quick hand from earlier tonight that shows how little “pot odds” matter in NL (compared to “implied odds” or what I like to call the “playability” of the situation).

I’m about $800 deep in a 3-5 blind $300 fixed buy game in an LA card barn. I have my usual image (Ed knows me but imagine a much older not as smart/skilled version of Ed but maybe better looking ). In the session I’ve shown down mostly winners and made good laydowns.

I have J9 offsuit in the SB and call $2 more in a five-way limped pot ($20 after the sick LA drop).

The flop comes T-8-4 rainbow. I decide to lead out with my draw for $20 (note that I tend to lead often in limped pots out of the blinds with my big to marginal hands and even occasional bluffs when the board looks right). The BB makes it $80 and everyone else folds. The BB isn’t a maniac but he absolutely overvalues hands and will pay off. He’s $620 or so deep before the raise. It costs me $60 to call the raise and the pot is “only” $120. So my pot odds are 2 to 1 and I’m almost a 5 to 1 dog to make a straight next card.

The pot odds may have said fold but IMO this was an easy call when you think through the way the hand plays out. If I whiff on the turn I’ll fold to any reasonable size bet. But he may check behind or under-bet giving me another shot.

Best case of course is I make a straight on the turn. If I do I figured I was a big favorite to stack him or nearly stack him since my hand will be very hard to read. That makes up for a lack of pot odds.

Anyway the turn comes a seven making my straight. Since the pot is already about $180 and a “blank” came I figure he bets if I check. So I check and he bets $100 leaving about $420 in front of him. I checkraise to $300. He groans a bit (to hear these groans I paused my iPod) and reluctantly calls.

On the river the board pairs the seven and he pays off my all-in river bet (BTW, he had KT offsuit - I said he was a payoff artist).

Calling the flop raise of $60 netted me almost $600 on my gin card with little further risk (I thought the risk of a redraw to a set was negligible; why would he close out the field so early in the hand on a rainbow board?).

I’m not sure this is the best example of how pot odds aren’t that important in NL but the guy complained the rest of the night that he got beat on my lousy call, asking me at least two times whether or not I understood “pot odds”. I shrugged my shoulders and played mostly stupid in the game but you guys get to hear my thinking.

Hope this was “postworthy”, sorry for the extra length but making a short story long is a weakness of mine ;-).

Regards,

Rick

Hi!
Great post! The guy definitely must have not read Ed’s NLHTAP.
I play mostly limit and mostly online but have found already how playing stupid increases implied odds for a session ;)
Ask ‘Why there are no Americans on this site?’ once in a while and there you go marked as a fish by everyone.
Regards and good luck
Pawel

“Discussion of “pot odds” makes people play more passively. People think “I have odds to call.” They don’t think “I’m getting 8-to-1, so I should raise.” Frequently you should raise instead of call when the pot is big. The reason is that you improve your chance to win the pot with a raise. When the pot is large, that improved chance is often worth more than the extra bet that you invest.”

I like that advice and I tell you what: I am going to AC in a couple of weeks and if I win a pot by deploying this advice I will donate a part of the pot to the site!