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	<title>Noted Poker Authority - Topic: Enough overlay to call?</title>
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	<title>threads13 on Enough overlay to call?</title>
	<link>http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/board/all-poker/enough-overlay-to-call/#p364</link>
	<category>All Poker</category>
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	<description><![CDATA[<p>Looks like it is a call to me with the slight overlay.&#160; </p><p>&#160;</p><p>&#160;</p>
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	<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2007 11:01:22 +0000</pubDate>
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	<title>Todd on Enough overlay to call?</title>
	<link>http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/board/all-poker/enough-overlay-to-call/#p359</link>
	<category>All Poker</category>
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	<description><![CDATA[<p>.25/.50 NLHE<br />SB posts the small blind $0.25 <br />BB posts the big blind $0.50</p><p>&#160;Hero dealt AcJc&#160; (stack $65)</p><p><br />DEALING POCKETS<br />UTG calls $0.50 (Stack $32)<br />UTG + 1 folds<br />Hero raises $2.50 to $3.00<br />MI folds <br />MI folds<br />CO folds<br />BTN folds<br />SB folds<br />BB folds<br />UTG calls $2.50</p><p>Pot $6.75<br /><br />DEALING FLOP (Qc,Jd,9c)<br />UTG checks<br />Hero bets $3.00<br />UTG goes all in $29.45 </p><p>I have a middle pair, nut flush draw and backdoor straight draw.&#160; Normally I&#39;m pretty happy to be all-in with this hand.&#160; I like to be the one putting in at least 1 big bet, though.&#160; But, I am where I am.&#160; I have to call ~$27 into a ~$40 pot.&#160; I&#39;m getting a little bit of overlay at ~1.5-1.</p><p>Giving the villain a range that includes some top pair hands, some 2 pair hands, 999, and a few draws, and flopped straights I have about 50% equity in the pot. It&#39;s about the same if I add in JJJ, which I don&#39;t really expect to see and a few weaker draws.</p><p>All of these ranges yield 50% equity +/- 3%&#160;</p><p>{JJ-99,AQs,KQs,KTs,Kc8c,QTs+,Qc9c,JTs,AQo,KQo,KTo,QTs}</p><p>{TT-99,AQs,KQs,KTs,Kc8c,QTs+,Qc9c,Qc8c,JTs,Tc8c,8c7c,7c6c,AQo,KQo,KTo,QTo+,JTo}&#160;</p><p>{TT-99,AQs,KQs,KTs,Kc8c,QTs+,Qc9c,Qc8c,JTs,Tc8c,8c7c,7c6c,AQo,KQo,KTo,QTo+,JTo}</p><p>Even against a range that includes mostly hands that beat me, I&#39;m still in pretty good shape with the overlay:</p><p>{JJ,99,AQs,KQs,KTs,JTs,AQo,KQo,KTo } == 44% equity</p><p>So, it seems like I have plenty of equity, a hand I really like but don&#39;t love.&#160; Do I suck it up and call here?&#160; It seems like I make money over time.</p>
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	<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2007 07:56:11 +0000</pubDate>
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