Message Board : SNG Bubble Decision

Hey Ed, I've read GSIH and enjoyed your SNG section and I haven't seen many SNG questions on your website, so I thought I might throw a tricky one out there that has recently given me a little trouble.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200
(Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2064
Hero: t1750
SB: t4666
BB: t5020

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 6 Q
UTG folds, Hero ?

I know image is huge here and since I played pretty snug up to this point I should have a tight one. I did shove a couple times prior to this hand, however, including once over a limper, and I didn’t show my cards, so I might be perceived as aggressive.

My estimate of their calling ranges:

BB: 44+,A8s+,KJs+,A8o+,KJo+ (15%)
SB: 55+,A8s+,KQs,A9o+ (11%)

Shoving Q6s here shows a +0.1% profit as opposed to folding, and SNGPT states that pushing and folding are “both reasonable plays” since it is so close.

However, since ICM doesn’t take into account the strategic loss of my FE within the next few orbits, I think the argument for a push gains merit.

Is this one of those spots where ICM underreps the value of a push?

Also, I always tend to think that the low stakes players might call looser than they should, so I toyed around with a looser range and found this result.

Their calling ranges:

BB: 22+,A5s+,KTs+,QJs,A8o+,KJo+ (17%) [adding 22-33,A5s-A7s, and KTs]
SB: 55+,A7s+,KJs+,A8o+,KQo (14%) [adding A7s, KJs, A8o, and KQo]

Now shoving Q6s shows a –0.3% difference from folding.

I’m trying to reconcile these two competing concepts:

a) Since the loose big-stacked blinds at the low stakes are more likely to call my shove with hands like KJ, A7, or 33, the equity of a play switches from + to – rather sharply so you have to think hard about these kind of spots, right?

b) ICM analysis might understate the value of pushing when your FE is eroding.

I’m wondering what your default play would be and why? Also, how do think these two ideas play into this particular hand?

I'm with Todd on the wider calling range.

Assuming this is a low $ SNG, you'll probably get fairly liberal calls from the blinds in this situation, especially the big blind, once the SB has folded.  You just can't cause enough pain to the blinds here–you don't have the chips.

I think you have greater fold equity against the player on your right who was UTG this hand.  As Todd alluded, if he completes the SB, you can push from the BB pretty liberally. 

If it were me, I'd almost want to see the other player with a similar stack size raise the big stacks in the blind to see how they react before trying a similar play for all my chips. 

But at any rate, I think that even if your narrow ranges are correct, and you do have +.1% $EV (which I doubt), you still probably want to fold.  I think this is a good example of passing up a small edge to wait for a bigger edge.  The problem is that if you take this +.1% edge now, you won't be able to take +1% edges that may come up next round, or the round after.