Message Board : Optimal bet size on the river with the nuts?

I’d like to hear your opinion about how much to bet on the river with the nuts, especially when last to act.

Do you "swing for the fences" and move all-in or do you try to get at least some smaller amount out of your opponent?

Do you factor in the pot size in relation to your bet size?

If you plan on bluffing the same opponent(s) in similar spots how does that affect your betting when you hold the nuts?

Example: I’m on the button with Ah7h. UTG limps PF and makes almost pot sized bets on the turn and river. Let’s suppose the flop is Kh Qh 7s, turn is 6c and river 2h. On the river the pot is 35BB. He bets 30BB.

How much should I bet (suppose he has me covered)?

Please elaborate your decision making process! Thanks!

I left out the stack size on purpose!

Part of my question is: does the stack size matter? If yes: how do you play depending on the (effective) stack size?

For example: you both have 5000 BB left; do you go all-in or do you bet a smaller amount? How big would your bet be and what is your thinking behind choosing that bet size?

There is a section in PNL that talks about this that helped me in the past.  I may not nail the exact wording, but the jist is that making large bets on the river with the nuts is the preferred play.  The number of times you will get looked up with 2nd best or semi-strong holdings will surprise you, and be worth it it in profits vs the number of times the villian folds.

Don’t get me wrong, you will get some folds.  Tight opponents, bluffs and draws that missed, they will often go away.  But the times that they don’t will pay for the times that they do in the long run.

Now, what MC says is correct, that you really need to mix in observation as well.  Many times it is going to be quite obvious that you won’t get the call and the value bet could be a preferred play, but if all things are equal, and your read tells you your villians hand is strong, stick in a big bet.

DonkStar said:

There is a section in PNL that talks about this that helped me in the past.  I may not nail the exact wording, but the jist is that making large bets on the river with the nuts is the preferred play.  The number of times you will get looked up with 2nd best or semi-strong holdings will surprise you, and be worth it it in profits vs the number of times the villian folds

I believe it was in NLTAP, not PNL.  There are a series of equity calculations to explore the problem a little bit.  In general, and especially in a cash game, you tend to do better if you make your bets larger even if they call less.  That’s a good set of calculations to work through to understand these sorts of river situations.  The math is really simple.

That said, once you get past a pot sized bet there are only a few situations when significant overbets make sense because the villain can only give you action with a few hands.  For exampe, there is a classic shove on a board like 999Ax where you hold a 9.  You’re looking to trap and A and know you will not get action from any other hand.  There’s an example of this here:

http://www.pokertube.com/ShowMovie.aspx?movieID=907eaa0b-ed56-4a50-97b5-3d6f903937cf&comeFrom=Search&StartPage=1&pIndex=1&PageView=0&FreeText=million%20cash%20game%202007&OrderBy=Latest

The hand is at the 6 minute mark.