Message Board : OOP Stop-and-Go vs Outright Shove

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OOP Stop-and-Go vs Outright Shove

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10:49 am
November 19, 2007


DonkStar

Member

posts 50

I witnessed this hand recently, and would be curious to folks input.  It was a small buy-in tourney.  I was eliminated, and was dealing the bubble.  4 players remained as the blinds beat up the stacks.

Player A - Best player remaining (since I was dealing Cool )  Aggresive, imaginative, knows the game well.  Chip leader with 35 BB

Player B - Average 11 BB stack

Player C - Tight, straightforward player 20 BB

Player D - Uber Tight, Calling station at times.  He had ~20 BB as well.  If he enters preflop, he has a hand, and almost never folds until he sees the flop. 

The Hand:

Player C folds

Player D opens the betting for 3x BB.  He clearly has a hand.  Pocket pairs and well related overs are most likely.

Player A folds

Player B finds AK in the BB, and moves all in.  Player D calls and rolls 88.

The flop is Q  J  x…it does not improve for Player B, and he is eliminated.

My feeling was this:  Given the calling station mentality of Player D preflop, and the Uber-tightness post flop, that a call for Player B might be a better play here, because it gives a better, scarier opportunity for Player D to fold.  Call the preflop bet, the shove the flop, like an OOP stop-and-go.  All the chips are going in regardless.

I pondering this conclusion regardless of the actual results (the board with a Q and J are perfect for this one hand), but I am more thinking about a random flop.  All unders to the 8’s would get called…a board with and A or K might not (which would really be unfortunate for Player B).  This is ONLY against Player D.  Is the OOP stop-and-go worth it for some fold equity?  Or is it simply always, always shove time?

12:14 pm
November 19, 2007


PokerDisciple

Member

posts 6

My very simplistic thoughts: 

Just how uber-tight and just how much of a calling station Player D really is seem to be big factors in how much equity this play might add.

If Player D’s range here includes any pocket pair, 22+, and he would be willing to fold, say, 22-99 on a board that had at least one overcard when he failed to flop a set, then it seems like it would add a good chunk of fold equity against a significant portion of his range.

If Player D will call regardless of the board, or call if there aren’t at least two overcards, then the value you lose from making this play when you hit and he misses seems to be worth more than what you might gain by making this play. Making this play also seems to rob some value from you if his range includes many of the worse big overcard hands than A-K.

12:52 pm
November 19, 2007


Todd

Member

posts 424

OOP, I might stop and go with AK.  Not very often though.  The tight players range is weighted towards big As simply by card distribution.  We’d prefer to be all-in preflop in a situation like that.  Also, I prefer to shove AK to guarantee me all 5 cards.  If we run the stop and go with that hand, we risk catching a flop like 774 and no pair is going to fold.

I really like the stop and go with pairs to balance the times I stop and go with air.  Pairs do better against overs with the stop and go because overs miss so often.  Even though you are ahead pre-flop, you pick up extra equity by getting overs to fold post flop when they only get to see 3/5s of the board.  Every once in a while, also, you can abort the go part if the board comes AKQ.  Mostly, though, I commit to the move even if there are overs.  Usually, overs are just as scary to the villain as they are to me. 

6:10 am
November 20, 2007


DonkStar

Member

posts 50

The more thought I give this, the more I think I happened to witness the one scenario where the stop-and-go would have worked, but that scenario will not happen enough to make it profitable.

First off, the play would only have value against Player D.  Neither of the other players would give up a 2:1 pot with the betting capped with any type of hand at all there.  Also, the nature opf the stop-and-go is that the rest of Player B’s chips are going in regardless of the flop, especially acting first.

So the scenarios are as follows

Player B’s AK vs a small to mid pair with a raggy flop.  Player D calls, no equity is gained.

Player B’s AK vs a small to mid pair with overs.  Player D potentially folds and equity is gained.

Player B’s AK vs a small to mid pair with overs, including an A or K.  Player D potentially folds and equity is lost.

Player B’s AK vs overs (maybe dominated) with a raggy flop, Player D potentially folds, equity is lost

Player B’s AK vs overs (maybe dominated) that pair, equity is the same as neither player folds.

 Essentailly, the scenario I saw will not happen enough to make the stop-and-go profitable.  Player B wants to maximize his equity with the most likely of scenarios, and the answer is All You Need Is Shove.

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