Message Board : NL $50, TT in MP... what problems can you find?

The 5.5 is  either really weak or really strong.  I think it's 50/50 that your ahead or you can make a bet he can't call.

I think you need to call or raise here.  You have 6 outs (though you want to see a 9 more than a 10) and the pot is offering over 4-1 immediate odds.  Pop it to $20 once in a while.  You can represent a set of some sort.  If he shoves, let it go.  Playing a raise-reraise-call line is very often a pocket pair, which you have.  You can credibly represent a set.

I think you want to raise the flop about 35% of the time,  call with the intention of raising the turn about 15% of the time and fold about 1/2 the time.

He will have AK fairly often here.  He could also have something weaker.

I think you want to raise it about 1/2 the time or maybe a little less.  Sometimes on the flop and sometimes on the turn, but more often on the flop.  I called it 35/15, but that is really just a loose estimate.  If you never raised the turn and only reaise/folded the flop, that would be fine too.  If you want to mix in a few more smooth calls in lieu of raises, you'll find you can check it down to the river fairly often as well.

The hands that will 3-bet from the BB look something like AQ+, TT+ or AK, JJ+.  Something in that neighborhood for the most part.  Lean towards wider as the BB is incented to take the hand down pre-flop given post-flop position.  This villain could easily have AK or 99.  Given the number of AK's vs PP's, you are ahead here around 1/2 the time.  You won't always get it right, I think you're hand still has plenty of value.

I like to raise the turn once in a while to let the villain know that I won't check fold the turn if I smooth call the flop.  Not very often, but enough to let him know I'm willing to defend my hand.  I think this little bet is a great place for it.  His min-raise pre-flop and odd bet sizing seem more weak than strong to me.  I really think you see AK here a lot.  He doesn't want to over commit, but thinks it's a good hand.  Very often the turn bet is a weak bluff or misguided value bet.  Smooth call/smooth call/raise is a very scary line on that board with 2 broadway cards when you raised and smooth called a reraise preflop.  It screams set.

It is also possible that the small bets are KK or AA.  I don't think you see QQ or JJ there very often.  Those usually warrent a bigger preflop raise because they don't play very well when overs hit on the flop. 

So I would raise here quite a bit.  I think you win more often than you have to fold to a shove. 

Wow, that's a weak turn bet he made. I'm confused now.

Todd, can you remind me of the relative probabilities of unpaired hands versus paired ones? On my spreadsheet, though I'm not certain I did it right, I just found 28 combinations of unpaired (e.g. AK) versus 6 combinations of pairs. That's over 4 times as many unpaired as paired, which would change my estimate of how often he has you beat with a reraising hand.

If you have six outs to win on the turn, I think you'd need to find another 29% in fold equity to justify a raise to $18 (betting 18 to win $24 = 43% minus the 14% of the time you'll hit the river = 29%; hope I got that right). That may be a good bet. Unless the small bet means he hit a set of jacks and is trying to milk you.

SelfMade said:

Wow, that's a weak turn bet he made. I'm confused now.

It is a weird line. 

There are 16 AK vs 18 pairs QQ+.  So you are right around 50/50.  If you add in JJ you're behind a bit more than 1/2 the time.  If you add in AQ, you're ahead pre-flop more.  I just don't see AQ 3 betting here all that often.   It's a substantially weaker hand when it gets shoved back at you.

I think the outs, or 1/2 outs give you justification to call with reasonable equity. 

I don't think this hand is so much about equity fold or otherwise as it is about read.  It's the weak turn bet that makes me think AK is really likely.  The pre-flop min-raise is such an uncommitted bet.  He wants to raise, but is afraid to get burned.  He hates AK because he can't get away from it when it doesn't come in and always seems to lose money with it.  If this were my hand I would raise here and take my lumps.  If he called and bet the river, I would fold.  If he shoved, I would fold. 

That said, his little bet may equal a big hand.  File that away.  He could be Mr. opposite.  If that's the case, you may be able to make some good folds on his little bets and will be able to make some big calls on  his big bets. 

If it turned out he had a big hand, I would call with any 2 every time he min-raised preflop.  He won't be able to get away from a big hand it you make 2 pair or trips.  Often his overbets will mean weakness.

Yes, I got the combinations wrong. There's 28 of A and K, but 12 of them are AA and KK. Leaving 16 as AK. So that's 2 and 2/3 times as many as paired hands.

I agree with Todd that QQ and JJ wouldn't likely min raise preflop. So if it's AA, KK, or AK, there are 16 AKs versus 12 paired hands. And the weak turn bet does make it more likely that it's AK, putting that way ahead of the pairs in probability. So on the turn you're probably ahead and have six outs most of the time if you're not.

I'd probably just call, and see if he bets the river again. If he doesn't I might bet it. Raising here takes a better read or more nerve than I have.

The above is assuming he's a TAG. I usually play Bodog, where the $50 NL is much more loose-passive than the $25 on Stars. At Bodog I probably would have folded it on the flop. 

I'd probably just call, and see if he bets the river again. If he doesn't I might bet it. Raising here takes a better read or more nerve than I have.

The above is assuming he's a TAG. I usually play Bodog, where the $50 NL is much more loose-passive than the $25 on Stars. At Bodog I probably would have folded it on the flop.  

I wouldn't bet the river.  There really aren't any hands that you beat that will call a bet, but there are plenty of hand that beat you that will check call.

Yeah Todd. I was thinking and talking turn all the way. As played I still like smooth calling the turn here. But on the flop, yes. I see raising here quite often. You made a really nice post.

I would have thought AK would make a bigger raise preflop out of position like that. But regardless, a flop raise would certainly define your hand and take it down often enough to be the play.