Message Board : Nit or prudent

Full ring live game

I am the sb with A8s. 4 limpers and the button raises to 6 bb’s. Now I  never play this oop against a raise, but here are the mitigating circumstances that prompted this dumb question.

1.      One of the limpers is the wild , loose player I moved to the table for. He has already doubled me up once. He has about 80bb’s.

2.      The game is 100bb buy in. I usually buy in initially at 60-70bb’s. I have 250 bb stack, the raiser has a 400 bb stack. So the implied odds are more than I am normally dealing with.

3.      I know the raiser, even though he is on the button, never raises preflop. So even though he is on the button I confidently put him on AA, KK, QQ, or AK. That’s it. Of course, even TT I’m looking an over and an under suited.

4.      The button isn’t wild loose, but he also doubled me up once a J high straight against my K high straigt. (we both flopped it and loose player mentioned in #1 stayed until the river )

So, to the core of my question. I hesitated after the raise before I folded. I do have the bb behind me, not a big concern. One of limpers might reraise but it’s not that kind of game. I think that happened once in 3 hours. In fact, my call could well entice limpers to call cause big pot brewin’ syndrome. My reason for hesitation was if I hit a big hand, I could get paid off big. I can easily get away from an A high flop. The button might bet scared if I flop a draw and make it unable to draw , I don’t know. But if I flop 2 pair, trip 8’s, or a flush I could get paid off big.

               I know normally this is a fold oop and in a normal game you get the miracle flop of a flush, probably making nothing. But in this game, wooo. Chance to get paid big. I know you don’t tell outcomes but I will here because it relates to the validity of my read. Loose player stayed. The flop was a flush for moi. Loosey bet and button called on flop and turn, ½ potters. On the river a 4^th club came and loosey bet with lone Tc and button raised it with KsKc.

So, finally , my question. When does a read of big implied odds because of 250bb stack versus the likelihood of miracle flopping (very small, I know) warrant gambling a little bit in this situation. I didn’t feel bad when the flop hit but as my reads of opponents played out so accurately, I wondered if I should be calling here ( not because of the hand hitting, but the chances of the big payoff if it does hit). I mean, I still think this is an obvious fold here, but then I’m not an expert. Got to thinking  “ Am I too nittish?”

You have to fold that OOP. If the only two hands you’re comfortable moving forward with are flopping a flush or trips, the odds are pretty crappy: 118:1 to flop a flush and 73:1 to flop trips. Them’s donkey numbers. 

jamleeco said:

 But one of my improvements I have made to my game is being absolutely paranoid about playing out of position.

That is an excellent improvement to make!