I had a peculiar hand the other day. So far I've mostly managed to keep monsters under bed (ie. the fear that your opponent has a best possible hand), but the nagging fear came on the river and I probably lost two big bets because of it. Now, it's a hand that was capped preflop, on the flop and on the turn. River saw two bets. It's one of those "why would you whine after winning that big a pot" hands, but not 3-betting the river here is a big mistake, I think. Probably 1-2 big bets (minus the probability that the opponent really had the worst possible hand for me).
(Sorry for the poor formatting, flopturnriver doesn't recognize this format.)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10s 10h
UTG posts and checks, CO raises, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG folds, CO raises, Hero calls
3-betting with pair of tens from the BB is pretty standard, I guess. Getting capped is always nasty, being out of position and all.
Flop: (9.5 SB) 5d 4h 10c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO raises, Hero raises, CO calls
So, we hit a top set with a really safe-looking board given the most probable range of our opponent. Pretty safe to assume here that the opponent continues here with a bet, thus it's safe to go for a check-raise, giving at least one or two bets out of a possible scared AK? Opponent 3-bets and, of course, I cap. Couldn't wish for more.
Turn: (9 BB) 7h (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero raises, CO raises, Hero calls
Again, since CO 3-betted the flop, I think it's reasonable to just bet out and hope for a probable raise. It's pretty much 100% certain that we have the best hand here.
River: (17 BB) Qc (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls
Final Pot: 21 BB
Here, the fear crept in. The range I'd put any reasonable opponent here is {QQ, KK, AA}. So, what if the opponent really does hold QQ? Of course, that's a silly thought. He might have, but most probably doesn't. The only real, though minor one at that, reason for not to 3-bet here is the possibility of going into a massive tilt if the opponent did actually hit a two-outer on the river. But, it turned out that the opponent was on a tilt, he had: 8d 8h. Uh?
So, no real question here, just a story on how you can miss valuable bets even after capped preflop, flop and turn. (Though any thoughts on the way I played are of course most welcome.)