Message Board : I'm getting very frustrated....running VERY BAD.

Don't change your game or your strategy if you are playing correctly.  You will run bad sometimes.  Stop trying to correct for it if you are not making mistakes, and go back to playing the way you are supposed to.

Randomness is never evenly distributed.  If you flip a coin 1000 times, you will probably have at least one string of 10 consecutive heads in there.  If you flip it 30,000 times, you will very likely have a string of 15 heads in a row.   But there will be very close to half heads and half tails out of the full set.  When you see something happen against the odds 15 times in a row, it seems almost impossible, but it is guaranteed to happen sometimes.  It happens all the time in poker.  If you play 30,000 hands online in 2 months, getting a long string of bad beats in a row can and does happen.

Luck wins in the short run quite often.  Poker is one long game that lasts your whole life, and over that time the odds will be true.

I whine too sometimes.  Then I get back in the saddle.

If you have a hand history database you can also calculate your Sklansky Bucks using a program like PokerEV , which shows what you were supposed to win according to the odds, vs. what you actually won (at showdowns only, obviously you must know villains cards).  When you are net plus Skansky Bucks, you know that you have played correctly and just suffered some bad beats.

MTDog:

Yeah, live poker really moves at a glacial pace compared to online.   Let's suppose youv'e played two 8-hour sessions per week.   In 3 months, you've played:

13 weeks * 16 hours/wk = 208 hours

200 hours * 30 hands / hr = 6000 hands

Even a modest online multitabler plays 4 tables * 60 hands / table hr = 240 hands per hour.  So 6k hands is like 24 hours worth of play.

If you go to 2+2 and post something like, “I'm running -5 BBL/100 over my last 6000 hands,” you'll probably get run off for talking about such a tiny sample.  Yet in B&M it's all you know for the past three months.

I really have no idea how anyone told if they were any good at poker before online games.

Forget about transitioning down to low-limit games-this can be even more frustrating as you will have to slug out multiway pots with seniors who can't even read their own hand half the time.

Do what has been suggested already: limit your buy-in to 30-60BB in these live 1/2 NL games and unless your starting hand selection and flop reading skills are poor, you should be able to beat these games. Downswings/losing sessions will always occur, but I think the term “running bad” is overrated and usually flaws in one's game plan are part of the problem. I'm not saying you're exaggerating your stories, but there may be more to your story than just bad luck.

Use this time to re-evaluate your no-limit game plan: read Ed's articles on short-stack cash strategy and GSIHE's NL short-stack (25 BB) strategy for starters.

vb_rounder said:

Forget about transitioning down to low-limit games-this can be even more frustrating as you will have to slug out multiway pots with seniors who can't even read their own hand half the time.

Do you mean low limit LHE games?  1/2 is as low as it goes live. 

Running bad is frustrating, no doubt.  I dropped back down on Stars for a bit recently after a bout of not being able to win a friggen' hand.  I had plenty of bankroll to play the 1-2 game, but I found I was playing better with a deeper bank roll against softer competition.

Having played every limit between .01/.02 and $3/$6 (across 3 different sites), I don't really agree that there isn't much to be gained playing low.  It can be frustrating at times, but mostly it teaches you patience and how to value bet. It forces you to play a very basic, taggy game until you figure out who you can run over and who you can't.  Always good skills.

Yes, 2/4 or 3/6 live LHE is what i was referring to.

AKQJ10 said:

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Many times we use “running bad” as an excuse not to work on leaks, but that doesn't mean we're not running bad.    6000 hands is really not much of a sample!

The trick is to work on fixing leaks that are there, but not overcompensate and try to fix leaks that aren't there.   That distinction may well be the toughest part about improving in poker!

I have taken steps to plug the leaks and I know I have some.   I have gotten  a little one on one coaching from a local  player/dealer I respect and is an above average player.  He gave me some good insights some I knew and others I didn't.   I also step back to playing limit like 1-5 spread more often.   I believe I'm turning it around.   One thing he suggested is try and keep a positive attitude and not play if I'm tired don't feel well or can't be more up beat. 

An Update:

I worked on plugging some leaks, I also got a bit of coaching from a local fellow I respect.   This seems to have helped I have cashed in a couple of Touneys and have been winning more in the cash games I have played.   I reduced trying to “force” hands if things to play as planned I have gotten better of just moving on to the next hand.  I still have room to improve, how ever I have made progress.  Thanks to those who have responded to me.