Message Board : How long to hang on to a dream? Part 1

I had two similar hands in my Saturday Session I’d love to get some input on.
Both are $1-$2 NLHE,the first one went like so:

I know the players well, and feel comfortable in the game, I have everyone covered at the table at around 200BB and the two opponents in this hand are near 100BB.

7-handed, I raised to 5.5BB in early position with QJs and got two callers pre-flop. This is not unusual pre-flop action at the time, and my QJs is alot better than recent shown hands, and I pretty sure I will get one, maybe two callers. I get two.

Post pre-flop betting, I am first to act with two people behind me. The innocent bystander is a straight forward player and the player in late position thinks he’s better than he is and tends to overvalue top pair (among other things, but that is the important one for this hand), and I know I can out play and read hands better both other players in the pot.

The pot is near $35 / 17.5BB
The flop comes: Ks 10d 8s.
I have an open-ended draw to Broadway and the second-nut flush draw. I put one of my opponents(not sure at this point which one on a big king).

I put in a $20 / 10BB / roughly 2/3 pot-sized bet. The innocent bystander to my left folds and the villain raises me to $60 / 30BB total, I know he is on a big king, I doubt it is Ak because there was no re-raise pre-flop, and he usually would re-raise in late position if he had it. I put him on KQo I call.

The pot is now around $155 / 77.5BB.
The villain has put in 41.5BB and has about 61.5BB left.
I have about 158BB. I’m committed, he should be, I expect him to go all-in on the turn.

The turn makes the board: Ks 10d 8s 4d. Basically no change because of commitment and I don’t fear the diamond draw. I don’t think I can push him off the hand, so on the off chance that I’ll get a free river I check, the villian goes all-in for his remaining 61shBB and I reluctantly follow through with my commitment because:

1) I was was committed :P.

2) It closed the betting.

3) I don’t see us sharing more than one of my outs (a spade).

and last

4) I still have what I figure is at least 15 outs. 4 Aces, 4 nines, and 7 spades; discounting one spade for each other player in the pot pre-flop as a precaution, just because basically.

The river is a blank and the villain wins with KdQh. Top pair OK kicker, right where I put him.

I don’t feel like I played this hand wrong, save for maybe betting the flop, but I felt my draw was good and strong, and I really didn’t expect the 3x raise. I guess my question is when to drop a big draw like that when you are sure it is a winner? Obviously by the turn here I don’t think I should fold. If the villain had more money to bet on the river, I guess I could fold to a 1/2 to 2/3 bet on the turn, but I don’t know.

How long do you hold on to a hand like this, in this situation, and if there was more betting possible on the river?

Thanks in advance.

Hey HJ,

 I think you’ve hit on several counts that I seemed to miss in my initial analysis. In particular my counting of outs, I was in kind of a hurry this morning when I posted, I know to not count the ace and nine twice, I was just being a dork. I need to remember that, thanks.

Also I think you’re right about pushing on the flop or being first to push on the turn to maximize folding equity.
 
I don’t know if I can accurately defend my raise, and now that I think about it I’m also not sure I was the raiser in this hand, I suppose that makes it worse and tells me I should try to pay more attention all the time. I know sometimes I get a little too "in the moment" this was likely one of those times.
 
As for his hand, I don’t know how to tell you that I had him on a biggish king. I may have only put him there while in the tank for the turn call but I’m pretty sure I did it on his re-raise to 30BB on the flop. He’s prone to do that, and betting history etc. kind of just made me put him on a "big king" later in the hand I kind of specified KQ for my evaluation purposes, if that makes sense.
 
Your perspective was very helpful, I’d like to sum it up if I can to see if I’m on the right track.
 
 Points:
 1) QJs from early position was a bad decision because of being out of position and likely being dominated.
 2) On the flop if I really like the draw–which I should–I needed to push by re-re-raising him all-in to maximize folding equity.
 3) Pushing here would have been a the second best option instead of waiting for him to do something, if I was committed I should get him all-in.
 
Analysis:
So probably avoid the hand pre-flop due to position but post flop with that draw I should have re-re-raised the flop for the rest of his stack, making him make the tough decision with two cards to come and only top pair.
 
Sound right? Thanks again.
 
 -c-

Actually it’s not too much of a stretch to say that those where the table conditions. Like I said I don’t recall exactly I may have limp-called (I know pay more attention). The the players behind weren’t dangerous. They’re thinking, but less experienced. I’m usually my own worst enemy at this game. I tend not trust thier bets etc. It’s my ego getting in the way. That little voice telling me I’m a better player. Even if it’s true I need to quit it and act like one.

Regardless, I’m still partial to your analysis. I could have dumped it pre-flop or I should have pushed it post-flop. I’m leaning on dumping it and leaving $200 up instead of $7 down.

Thanks again. I may post Part 2 soon, a similar drawing hand against similar holdings, but now I have to do my day job.

Thanks, and I look forward to discussing more hands.

C 

I can see that as well. That angle also utiizes the folding equity HJ mentioned.

I learn something every time I play and I’m thrilled i’ve found this forum. I’m too busy to post Part 2 until next week.

The World Series of Poker circut event is at the boat (Caesar’s Indiana) across the river starting today, and I’m going to play the cash games all weekend. 

Thanks

C