Message Board : flopped set at $1/2 NL live game

I was playing $1/2 NL at Foxwoods. It's certainly a loose game, and occasionally wild.

I have $138 and pocket 3s. It's raised to $10. I call, as do 4 others. About $60 in the pot going to the flop.

Flop is Qs 7s 3h. 

I bet $30 and get one caller. He's tighter than average. Pot is about $120.

Turn is 10s.

I bet $60. He raises all-in. We have about the same stack sizes, so it's my last $38. I call. 

What do you think of my play at each decision point?

What position are you ? What position was the raiser? Did you mean there were 4 callers that all acted after you did or had some already entered and called the raise when it got back to them?

When you bet on the flop how many had checked in front of you?

What are the peoples stacks going in to the hand?  Also, as already asked, what position are you in? 

On the flop you have a $60 pot with $128 behind.  I would plan on betting $40 on the flop and ai for my last $88 on the turn.   If you are called by one person on the fop then you will be betting $88 into ~$140 on the turn.  As played, I think you should have just pushed on the turn.  It wouldn't have been an overbet and I think it gives you the best chance of gettin gall your money in the center. 

I don't see any reason to fold this.  Especially given that it can be a wild game.

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I think in a LOOSE game strong hands like this call for larger bets, not smaller ones.

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I agree that you can get away with a bigger bet.  Given his stack size, he isn't really under pressure to make bigger bets so that he can get his whole stack in by the river.  I wouldn't pot it, personally.  I would really like multiple callers or for someone to try to squeeze if there is a caller behind.  I want to take this pot 3 or 4 way into the turn and shove it there or have someone overshove on the flop.  This is the sort of hand you can tripple up on. 

I wouldn't worry as much about defending against the flush, especially if you are going to shove the turn.  We're all thinking flush because of the way the post was written and flushes are scary.  It just isn't always there and if you are always defending against it, you are missing out on getting value from some other hands I think.  I guess I would make the biggest bet that I thought would get more than one caller.  If that was a pot sized bet at that table, then $60 is the right number.  I guess I'm willing to let draws come along at the wrong immediate price and occasionally give them the right price if their draw hits on the turn and I stack off and don't hit my redraw.  In the long term, I think I do a little better by getting secondary callers putting their money into the pot, but stacking off to the occasional draw that would call the small bet, but wouldn't call the big one.

I do agree that it is probably better to shove the turn than to bet $60.  I just don't think betting $60 is that big of a mistake and the outcome is the same in most cases.  There is no way you are folding if you bet and I think you have to bet.  This is one of those instances where being out of position with a set complicates things a bit.  You would have a cha

Doh! You're right. 55%. But that is even more to the point about not fearing the flush all the time. 55% of hands don't revolve around a flush draw.

I do think a little larger bet is a little better, but I am not so pessimistic about the smaller bet. I just don't think its the worst thing in the world.

You're right that the call was pretty easy for him. $36 on average? Easy. In you're particular case he isn't going to win $36 on average. He's going to make his flush on the turn and get your stack in the middle a little more than 20% of the time. Sounds great. 20ish% of the time he wins $350 or so. That gives him $70 on average. But, he's only going to stack you off on the turn 15% of the time. You will hit your redraw 20% of the time he get you all in on the turn and he loses that $100. So his $30 call nets him around $25 on average (.15 * 350 - .05 * 130 - .8 * 30, this isn't exaclty right becuase there's a decision tree for the calls that require a non-all in turn decision, but it doesn't get better for the villain if he has to make a turn decision at a bad price). Just about, but still not, the right price. A little less than break even. He thinks he's making an easy call, but he's not. On the turn if he doesn't make his draw he will face another bet at a worse price. It stung like crazy in this case, but still not so bad.

I think 2/3rds is a nice bet if you are one of the first ones to act because it's not so big that you won't get more than one caller at a loose table. Given your stack size, 2 or 3 callers gives you the perfect size pot to shove the turn. If you were last, I'd probably be more inclined to pot it and hope for a big semi-bluff shove.

threads13 said:

SelfMade said:

I did some aftermath based on villain having 9 outs to a flush on the flop. Betting half the pot I was giving him 3/1. He needs 4.2 to one, including implied odds, to make it a good call. 

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Keep in mind that if he hits the flush you have a redraw to a better hand.  He actually needs a little better than 4.2:1

True. I think there was just one dead out for him on the flop though, a trey of spades that was either in my hand or made me quads. So he would be 4.9 to 1 against. I didn't think of that till after I'd run the numbers though. 

The result of the hand: he did turn a flush, the board didn't pair, and I lost my stack.

Todd said:

So all of our quibbling over bet sizes is just salt in the wound?

If I make the right decisions I'll be happy whether I win or lose. Right now I'm willing to make mistakes to learn and improve my game. Sometimes you have to cross the line to know where it is. E.g. the pocket aces I should have folded on the flop recently: I went all in and found out that yes, that action really did mean a single pair wasn't good. I'll know for next time. And if I never cross the line I'll just be playing too tight.

Re your math 5 posts up: I don't follow it all. This hand gets more complex the more I think about it. I admit that analyzing a hand with redraws is beyond my ability right now. I think I need to read more poker books. E.g. if he hits his card but I hit my redraw, I get his stack. Is that what they mean be reverse implied odds? It would probably take me an hour with a spreadsheet to figure out exactly what the breakeven bet size was.

A 30bb pot, loose game, I'm not small-betting the pot hoping to get more hanger-ons. I think betting the pot is better. Considering the implied odds and what size bet you think will be called, I like pot-size, that's not overbetting either like going all-in.

It's a game of mistakes. The bigger the flop bet called, the bigger mistake your opponent makes. He hits the flush and you call, the more left behind the bigger your mistake. In a tight game I might, might, bet less, but not in this game as described.

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With that many callers this guy is really far from making a mistake. Rather than get more players for smaller amount here rather get the one player to pot commit for his stack. Lesser bets  and a blank, hand over, or end up beat with guys having odds to chase. I think it would be different in an unraised pot, but with that many in for a 5x bb raise and a draw on board, I'm charging for callers and expecting to get at least one, maybe two. Like I said up above, I figure you get rasied there with tp so have to read for a draw, and only draw hit. Now you have a decision, you have outs and are  committed, but I rather get the majority of the money in when I'm the favorite and not chasing, win or lose.

Great points jamleeco.  I agree that you want to get as much money in good as you can.  A pot sized bet is the perfect bet at a lot of tables.  The pot is alread getting big and there is no reason to fool around.

I think you do have some flexibility in bet sizing.  It's a bit of a balancing act and it really depends on your position and the table dynamics.  When I was down at Foxwoods on Friday, I was on a 1-2 table where there wasn't a whole lot of flop raising except from the guy on my immediate right.  There were a lot of people who would call a big flop bet with top or even 2nd pair.  One of my friends was at a table where there were lots of big flop raises.  Two big stacks were really punishing the table.

At my table, I agree with your approach.  A bigger bet looking for one caller.  Letting flush chasers make really bad mistakes instead of just sort of bad mistakes.  My small bet approach isn't a disaster, but it isn't very good here.

At the other table I like a smaller bet.  If I get 2 callers, then I move in on the turn.  But, what I am really looking for is a big bluff raise to get a lot of money into the pot on the flop.  My goal is to get a lot of money into the pot on the flop, but I am willing to risk letting some draws in as a consequence.  You're really not in that bad shape with a set, which was sort of my point above.  So if I just get a big called pot, that is ok too.  If there are a couple of attacking players, then looking weak or offering not such a bad price is a great way to get a lot of money into the pot and sometimes it doesn't work out like you'd hoped.  I am willing to increase my volatility to get a line like bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot, call, call, raise coming back around to me where I can get my whole stack in on the flop with a bunch of dead money in the pot.  This of course makes no sense if there is no one capable of sticking in that raise.  But it isn't a disaster if someone doesn't stick in that raise.

It's sort of like limping AA UTG.  Some people think this is a terrible idea in all cases and you deserve what you get when you stack off to a limped 75o.  At a table that will almost always limp around it is a mistake.  At an agressive table, it's a great way to build a big pot. That's sort of what I am proposing here.  Does your table call too much?  Lean towards a big bet.  Does your table bluff too much?  Lean towards a smaller bet that encourages the bluff.

Does that make any sense or do you think I'm just being too tricky for my own good?

Hey Todd, yes that makes sense to me. I was typing my response to self - made when your post went up. At the table you have to go with your feel and how you think it will play out. I agree sometimes you take bigger chances for bigger pots. I mean I limped in CO with aces other day and called all way to river and raised then ( worked out gladly) But yeah, can't be upset if it doesn't. I agree that would have been a better line on your buddy's table.

This is a great game, isn't it?