Message Board : Deep stacked monter - did I lose value on the river?

The nature of the villain is important for this hand.  He’s hit some big hands and has a monster stack.  He’s been willing to call off a lot of chips on draws, but he won’t call with nothing and steal.  If you check he will make small stabs at the pot.  I haven’t seen him make any big stabs.  He’s been limping with any 2 since he tripled up.  As I said, he’ll stab at weakness, but when a lot of money has gone into the pot, he’s shown up with 2 pair or better, except for one time when he showed up with a Q-high FD on the turn that outran trips A’s on the river. 

Here’s the hand:

1-2NL

Hero (stack ~450) in the BB with 77

Villain (stack ~ 1K) raises to 6, btn calls, Hero calls

Villain hardly ever raises.  Likely has big cards or a high pair. 

Flop 678 rainbow.

Hero checks, villain bets 15, btn calls, hero raises to 45, villain calls, button folds

Pot ~140 

Turn is a 4 for a board of 6784 with 2 clubs

My turn bet may seem dicey, but I don’t think the 4 helped him since he raised pre-flop.  He’s been limping a wide range and I think that 55 or A5 is unlikely as I’ve seen him limp with a number of low Axs.  I feel it’s pretty safe to bet and I want to be able to get the whole stack in on the river.  Ifhe would have shoved, I have no idea what I would have done, but it surely would have involved vomit.

Hero bets $130, Villain calls $130

I’m almost sure he has 99 or TT, though he may have something like ATs.  He calls reall, really loosely with weak draws.

Pot ~$400 

River is a 4, filling me up.

I knew the 4 didn’t help the villain.  But, I had less than a PSB behind so I stuck it in.

Hero bets $260, villain thinks for quite some time and folds.

Anyone think a check would have been better?  The villain was pretty loose, but not for that sort of bet.  When the money didn’t go in on the turn, I was sure I had the best hand.  The 4 didn’t change that.  I hated the thought of him checking behind and not giving him the chance to call.  But, in retrospect, a check feels more right.  He’s just not going to show up with TT for another $260.  I’m not sure he’d bet it either, though.  Any thoughts?  It’s altogether possible that I got all I was going to get out of him no matter what river line I took.  These hands come up so rarely that I hand’t given a lot of thought as to how to get value here.   

I tend to agree with karbyn.  I think I check was likely to get checked behind, although I may be projected my own reaction there.  You may have been able to put a tiny amount in and gotten a crying call (something like $75 or less). 

 If the villian had a TT like hand, he did have 2 pair.  You said he usually shows up at showdown with that as a minimum holding.  If that was your read, (overpair), I think your bet on the river does end up having the best value long term though, as the times it gets called give enough equity to make it the preferred move.

Thanks for the notes, Joe.  I hadn’t really considered a squeeze.  I probably don’t squeeze enough in general, but I was specifically set mining against this guy.  He wouldn’t fold anything preflop.  He was 90 VPIP preflop.  No Joke.  That he raised definied his hand pretty well.  He almost never raised.  So, I don’t think 89 was likely to be in his range.  Against a tough player, I think you’re absolutely right that it is a hand I need to put in his range.

The way I played my hand was based on some pretty specific reads.  I was very sure the check/raise was going to be called unless he had total air (maybe even with just overs) and I wouldn’t have bet the 130 on the turn had I not ruled out a 5 in his hand.  Had he had 9T, much of the money would have been on the flop.  So, I thought the 130 was both safe and likely to be called.  He called big turn bets incredibly lightly if he had any sort of draw.  I had been chipping away at him all night , checking and calling with bigger hands when he was likely to bluff, putting in value bets on the end when he wasn’t likely too.  I had a pretty good idea how he was playing and how he put money into the pot.  He was still drawing on the turn and he would pay almost any price on a draw.  When I finally got the whale on the hook with the monster, it broke my heart to see him fold even though I took 200 off him.