Message Board : Criticisms of the short-stack SPR and commitment model.

Before I comment further, what games are you playing in? What level? Online or live? How tight is the game?

Edit:

You know, I think it is safe to assume it is a tight online game, so I am going to speak under those assumptions.  Definitely let me know if this is off.

I think the problems you are having are broken down into a couple different big issues.  You are saying that the book says hit an SPR of 4 and then commit, but the book doesn’t make it that simple.  For starters, if you are playing against tight players then an SPR of 4 may  be too high to commit with.  Your target SPR may actually be something like 2.  Thus, the situation you are illustrating definitely may not be profitable. You will want to be conditionally committed.  What I mean is that there may be hands that you can get to put in money, but if you get raised, you will know that you are behind often enough that you can fold.  Said another way, if they are a tight and straightforward player it may often be correct to make a fold even after you went past the commitment threshold.  Obvioulsy, you have to be careful here, but if you are reading hands then you should tend to make the right play.  In fact, it’s all about reading hands.

I also want to point out a few mistakes in your reasoning: 

You said:

"For example a pre-flop raise to 10% of the effective stack yeilds an
SPR of 4.5.  Lets say I hit my TPTK and he hits his set, we are both
committed.  With a 40BB effective stack for example, the set has paid
4BB to win 40 giving impled odds of 10 to 1 on an 8.5 to 1 shot…
excellent for him!"

This is one example where he had the implied odds.  However, his implied odds on his preflop call are really figured from what he will make on average in that spot.  Meaning, he won’t always stack you.  You will miss the flop sometimes, you will hit an overset sometimes, you will get away from your hand sometimes.  This means that his implied odds aren’t the maximum amount that he can win.  Implied odds are what he will win on average.  On average he will win significantly less than your stack when he hits.  He may only win half of it on average.  Even less.

I think you are on the right track though.  You need to read their hands.  If you have AK on a K65 flop and you get c/r all in that offers you 2:1 by a tight limp-caller from EP with stats of like 11/5, then your equity is probably significantly lower tjhan the required 33%.   

Still, you can make money from these players, but it isn’t so much from making best hands.

threads13 said:

Before I comment further, what games are you playing in? What level? Online or live? How tight is the game?

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I think you are on the right track though.  You need to read their hands.  If you have AK on a K65 flop and you get c/r all in that offers you 2:1 by a tight limp-caller from EP with stats of like 11/5, then your equity is probably significantly lower tjhan the required 33%.   

I’ll add "and know your opponents" to "read their hands".  Sounds like OP may be running into passive villains who’ll just sit back and check/call or flat call their big hands, leaving just enough rope for an aggressive player to hang themselves.  It’s a lot easier to get away from AK on K65 when you get checkraised than it is when you get just a call and the turn bricks.  :(  Knowing that your villains love to slowplay like this will allow you to rethink your commitment decision.  SPR DOES NOT mean just firing pot sized bullets on every street - something that I think gets overlooked a lot.  With every street and every action you need to be deciding if you’re still committed and Maximizing your Equity against their Range.  ;)  Going back to the AK on K65 - maybe your maximization line is something like bet flop but slow down when called - check/call or check/fold the turn against a "dead fish" villain.  

It’s easy to get thinking that SPR is just about manipulating the pot to get yourself all-in.  The key (and part that people seem to get confused about the most) is that you’re only trying to get all-in if you think you’re taking the best of it! 

The levels you are playing at may have something to do with it but I have played a reasonable amount of 50BB starting stacks at 50/1 and 1/2 online and found many players who will commit with worse hands.

The key is not always whether you will commit (although this may change according to player type) but, in my experience, how you will commit. Using a bit of creativity and taking profitable risks are often the way to get yourself all in versus a worse hand. Taking a bet/bet line will usually mean you are only committing against your opponents strongest hands which may often beat you. Obviously you are still going to run into those strongest hands, regardless of what you do, but by taking varying lines  to get all in you will see a lot of ‘What the f…’ hands.

 You have to give your opponents reason to believe they have the best hand or that they can bluff you off the best hand. Even with 40-60BB I have encountered players willing to believe they can push me off a strong hand because I never played it as a strong hand. What’s important to remember is that SPR helps you commit against your opponents range and some of that range may be bluffs/semi-bluffs. You have to give your opponent the chance to make the commitment for you on occasion. He may not call all in on the turn with a draw or TPWK but he may put you all in with the same hands.

Playing different levels may mean making different commitment decisions but I have found c/raising flops or the Turn, checking behind on flops and underbetting pots, amongst other strategies, all useful ways to get all in versus weaker hands at the levels I play.

If your opponents will not commit with an SPR higher than 2 then I would still advocate getting more money in the pot with the best hand if these players play a straightforward game. If the players are tight enough that they will not commit with an SPR higher than 2 then raising to achieve this (with a 40-50BB stack) will mean raising 10+ BB. Whether you are reraising, limp/raising or straight out raising these players are rarely calling those bets.

Since your post I have played approx. 4 hours, on a number of tables, with a 50BB stack (or versus 50BB stacks after doubling up) and have committed with the following hands:

TP - KQ v AT: opponent pushed with 1 overcard and no other draw

OP - AA v 56s : opponent very loose and aggressive called AI with poor pot odds

TP - AK v AT

In none of these hands did I take a bet/bet line.

 The above hands are not at all rare, in my experience, when playing with or against 40-50BB stacks. Again this has been primarily at the 50/1 games online.

MustangTC said:

Thank you everyone for your comments, they have been well recieved.

On considering everything I can clearly see that my key error has been in the neglect of my opponent’s ranges.  It makes sense that some opponents are not willing to get all in with less than one pair, just as some will stack off with TPGK.  Consequently I will be asking myself on every hand: if I get all in ‘against this opponent’ with my most likely hand, will I be ahead more often than not?

Another question:

If your opponent wont get all in with an SPR of 4 without a hand stronger that 1 pair, should you plan to raise your big pp’s and unpaired cards to achieve an SPR of 2 against them or its it better to achieve a higher one and plan to play a small pot?  How do position and opponent tendencies factor into this?

-MustangTC

If you can raise more to hit your SPR and your opponents will still call with the same range of hands, then it is fine to do this.  However, you want to be a little careful about doing this with hands like AK and AQ in my opinion.  You may be better off just pushing with your 3-bet.  

One thing I have been thinking about lately is avoiding getting myself unhappily committed by putting too much in preflop.  Sometimes I may make a raise preflop, end up at a low SPR, and feel that I have to commit. If I hadn’t raised then I might have been able to play the hand much more profitably.