Message Board : bottom set 220 deep

Villain seems strong and aggressive.  I really doubt he's getting it in with AJ, but I suppose on never knows.  I think my flop 3-bet is bad, any thougts on that appreciated.  Thoughts on his min-4 bet also appreciated.

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HAND #1
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Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker - http://www.stoxpoker.com/

MP: $202 (101 bb)
Hero (CO): $515.55 (257.8 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $104.65 (52.3 bb)
BB: $433.10 (216.6 bb)
UTG: $205.40 (102.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 4s4c
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN folds, SB calls $7, BB calls $6

Flop: ($24) Jh As 4h

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $12, SB folds, BB raises to $45, Hero raises to $124, BB raises to $203

One of us is going to go broke here.  With this board and any set, top or bottom, and no preflop 3-bet from BB, I'm willing to put in all my chips, every time.  Most of the time I win.  Never be afraid of set-over-set unless you have very convincing evidence that you are in that rare situation.  When two players have pocket pairs, it's about once in 100 flops to both hit sets.

mbuss said:

What they said. I think it's possible he has JJ, but it's more likely he has a draw. You know how hard some players like to play their flush draws .

I'm not sure that it's more likely he has a FD.  There are 3 combos of JJ and 4 combos of suited broadway.  But, he's a bit more likely to 3-bet suited broadway pre than JJ.  It is also not out of the question that he would flat AA that deep.

I could see him having a hand like AXh where X is a broadway card.

For sure that's in his range.  Against JJ/A[KQT]hh, I have about 35% equity.  Which is about break even.

If he really has AA or JJ, do you think he'd put in a fourth bet on the flop, or would he rather just call your reraise to try to get more value out of you on later streets?

To me the min-raise reads like he's trying to induce a shove. (or he has me completely leveled and has air)

Why do you think your 3-bet is bad?

Because it left me in a really crappy spot.

Todd said:

Some thoughts from elsewhere…

Here's an excerpt from one of the Stox coaches (winning 10/20 player but still plays some at these limits)

…snip…

I do put his range on JJ or AA.

I would also flat AA alot more than most especially deep since its only one pair at the end of he day unless history dictates that you will get it in with AK for 200bb and unless you have specific reads on him spazzing in 200 bb pots then it mostly looks like you could be toast. I doubt he would min raise with AJ so I would not put that in is range. Most likely you will see AA more often than not. The raise basically is saying I have the uber nuts on you.

It's absolutely ludicrous that the BB would show up with AA here. It's also pretty insane that he would show up with JJ here although that's possible.

I'm not a fan of flatting with aces in a 3way pot oop.  If it's only one pair and you're oop then you want to raise.  I could see calling ip sometimes.

It's not insane for him to show up with JJ here.  Why would he 3bet JJ pf 200bb deep?  That being said if he's getting it in with AJ and some combos of flushdraws like QhTh, AhKh to AhTh then you can't fold because you have too much equity, but it's not a fun spot.

Todd said:

I've never flatted AA in that spot either, but the guy making that post is a winning 10/20 player, so I'm guessing there's some merrit. 

No doubt.   As you move up in stakes, it becomes more important to disguise/merge your hand range against thinking players.   Therefore playing AA unpredictably becomes more important to induce postflop errors.

To the original hand, at stakes I play I can't eliminate AJ from his range without a read ever.   I agree that the four-bet says, “I have the virtual nuts.   Let's play for stacks!”    But many small-stakes players would treat AJ as the nuts here, because some players below them would treat AK as almost the nuts.

If AJ's in the range then you pretty much have to play for stacks.   If you can classify the player as even somewhat conservative and tight, then perhaps you call and pray for a scare card or fold.   In retrospect it would be nice to have flat-called the check-raise for pot control (!), but you shouldn't be thinking you want to keep the pot small with bottom set.

I wanted to add that I'm not sure a player would flat JJ pre here either.  It almost looks like his most likely hand is JJ though once you get into postflop.  All in all, it's very confusing to me. 

threads13 said:

Wow, this is a gross spot.  Personally, I'm playing full ring at .5/1 currently and these sort of things come up so rarely, but I haven't seen a regular flat pre with AA.  Certainly the stack sizes make it more correct for him to do so.  So, it's hard to say how much you expect to see AA here. 

The problem is that if you put his ranges on hands like big draws and sets you aren't in good shape.  It looks worse when you consider that his 4b is so small.  If he had a draw and he was a good player, it doesn't really make sense to 4b like that.  He could 4b shove, and that way he is getting some FE or he could call.  But the small 4b is probably much more likely to be a set than a draw.  It's pretty gross.

I don't really care for the 3b either for the reasons that you mentioned.  I think it tends to put you in hard spots and lets him play his range perfectly.

PS… I didn't realize that was your name on stox, man!

I think it's a pretty straightforward, though not enjoyable, call if he flat out ships it.

…snip…

PS… I didn't realize that was your name on stox, man!

…snip…

Yeah.  It's funny, this is the only site where I use my actual, factual name.  I use that one on TwoPlusTwo, stox and most of the sites I play.

He probably puts you on a big Ace, AK, maybe AQ or even AT … even A4 because you're CO.  I suspect it's 2 pair more often than not, especially if he's strong and aggressive.  With a straight draw, because of the 2 hearts on board, I see him wanting another card as opposed to getting it all in since you could be frerolling.  With a big heart draw, unless he has a draw to the straight also, I think he just calls your 3 bet. It is worth noting that any straight draw is a gutshot, although to the nut straight ( counting only 3 outs without the heart ).

I'm never 3-betting with AK/AQ on the flop here.  I'm probably pitching non-heart AT a 3-bet, or at least if I'm playing well, I would.  On a board this drawy, I'm checking back AT a fair bit of the time, even with the 3rd person in the pot.  Given that the SB is short stacked, I'm not all that worried about pushing him out of the pot.

I agree that I doubt that he has a straight draw.  But, I doubt he wants to get it in with 2 pair on this board.  He's never in great shape if I ship it and often he's crushed.  2 pair and bottom set are essentially the same hand on this board.

I think his 4-bet is a sheepish way to get it all in without pushing.  He wants you to fold.  Of course, the reverse could also be true ( JJ or AA ) but it is a rather unlikely play.  He would be in the same boat as you … if he thinks *you* have hearts, he's just as vulnerable as what you are thinking if *he* has hearts …  Get the draws to fold.  But, he has just priced you in for your draw so if he's a strong player, that is a terrible move and he should have pushed.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that you are drawing to 1 out, but since he's aggressive, I think you are ahead to often to fold here.  Since calling isn't an option due to remaining stacks, you have to push.

It isn't out of the question that he is bluffing me here.  If he was leveling me, he picked a great bet size.

Todd said:

I don't really agree with your thinking here. I think people flat JJ even when not deep and I would rarely 3-bet JJ 150+ deep with someone.  But, I flat JJ all the time even with 100BB stacks.  So, I could well be biased here. 

Then are must be prepared to lay it down more often than if you were the aggressor?  I'm not saying always, but if the flop has an overcard, and certainly 2, you would? 

JJ is a great hand when no overcards come, even decent when only a Q comes.  Certainly much weaker in a 4 way pot, but even 3 way, JJ on a Q92 board is pretty strong.  But past that, I think you end up laying it down more often?  Sort of a “win a lot or lose a little” rationale?  Am I right?

I guess what I'm really trying to say is you get to a push/fold scenario a lot quicker.

karbyn said:

Todd said:

I don't really agree with your thinking here. I think people flat JJ even when not deep and I would rarely 3-bet JJ 150+ deep with someone.  But, I flat JJ all the time even with 100BB stacks.  So, I could well be biased here. 

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Then are must be prepared to lay it down more often than if you were the aggressor?  I'm not saying always, but if the flop has an overcard, and certainly 2, you would? 

JJ is a great hand when no overcards come, even decent when only a Q comes.  Certainly much weaker in a 4 way pot, but even 3 way, JJ on a Q92 board is pretty strong.  But past that, I think you end up laying it down more often?  Sort of a “win a lot or lose a little” rationale?  Am I right?

I guess what I'm really trying to say is you get to a push/fold scenario a lot quicker.

JJ is a funny hand.  It's a transitional hand, so I don't mind playing it for a reraise or a call.  If you re-raise with it and you get action, you're never in love with it, but you're getting too good a price in today's game not to get it in pre.  Particularly from an LP raiser.

As for how I play it to overs, it sort of depends.  But, yes, I try to play a medium sized pot with JJ unimproved unless I think it's a guy that will stick it all in with worse top pair.  Generally, if 2 overcards come and an EP raiser fires, I'll lay it down.  If an LP player fires I may turn it into a bluff and c/r, but I would just be bluffing there.  With 1 overcard, you can get it to showdown quite a bit. Against a bluffy LP raiser, I don't really mind seeing 2 overcards, particularly if an A comes on the turn.  So many aggressive players auto-fire an A on the turn.

Flat calling pre and c/c or c/r post can be fine plays too.  At the end of the day, you're never totally in love with getting it in with JJ unless that 3rd J turns up.

That said, I'll flat call in the blinds with a number of “re-raising” hands of the conditions are right.  For example, I'll make flat calls with all sorts of suited broadway, including AK and AQ to an EP or tight MP raiser.  This is particularly true against weaker players.  I don't want to bloat the pot while oop when I can induce calling or folding mistakes later in the hand.  Similarly, I'll flat in position with hands likely to dominate and 3-betting a more polarized range.