Message Board : Bluff size?

.25/.50 NLHE

Dealt 5s7s in MI-2, stack ~$50

fold, fold, call $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, folds, checks, checks, calls $0.25, checks

2 people had posted behind me + blinds, so I limped with suited 1-gapper

Pot $3.00

DEALING FLOP (Td,Js,4s)
checks, BB bets $2.00, avoklimit folds, Hero calls $2.00, fold, fold, fold

I put the villain on top pair and planned on trying to take it away on the turn

Pot $7.00

DEALING TURN (6c)

I pick up an OESD to go with my FD

Villain bets $5.00
Action Stan raises $10.00 to $15.00
Villain, it's your turn. You have 10 seconds to act
Villain, it's your turn. You have 5 seconds to act
Villain calls $10.00

Pot $37

I think this bluff may have been a little small, but I put him on a weak holding and wanted to make a bet that looked like a value bet, not just a shove in on a draw.  He didn't want to call, but eventually did.

Villain and I both have about $30 behind

DEALING RIVER (6d)
Villain checks

I think my read is right. Weak top pair. I fire again.

Hero bets ?

Would you move in here. Would you make a bit of smaller, value looking bet?

This is a good bluffing situation. Fire away.

Ed Miller said:

What makes you "put him on a weak hand" on the flop and turn?

Maybe weak is too much, but I didn't put him on a monster.  I put him on a top pair that wasn't AJ and probably wasn't KJ. I was really hoping for an over card on the turn, but I picked up the OESD.  With 8-15 outs, I felt it was a good bluffing opportunity.

He checked in the BB and lead the flop.  He just doesn't have AA-QQ.  This is so, so often top pair in .25/.50.  It could be AJ, but any J holding is a possibility.  When I raised the turn, he didn't re-raise on a dangerous board so I took him off any sort of 2 pair holding or a set.  He waited a long, long time to call.  Not that fakey I have a monster long time, but an I really don't want to call long time.  If he had AJ or KJ, I would have expected a quicker call or a re-raise.

I had him on something like J9, J8 or maybe QJ.

He then checked to me on the river.  This confirmed to me that he didn't have a set, which surely would have led the river and probably wasn't 2 pair or the unlikely J6 or T6.  I believe all of those hands would have led. In my experience, it's very rare to see a check/raise on the river H2H at .25/.50.

He didn't fold the turn.  Most T's would fold to pressure.  But AT is still a possibility.  I was very sure that he had a top pair that wasn't very happy about the pressure he got on the turn.

So, fire another barrel.

Which I did.

I fired $22 thinking a value bet looked scarier than a busted draw shove.

He used all his time and called with QJo.  I am still thinking a better bluff size on the turn or river could have convinced him to lay it down. 

Ed'c comment makes me think of how many people believe that if somebody doesn't bet 3/4 the pot on the flop, they must be weak. I don't really buy what those people are selling.

As far as changing you bluff raise on the turn… if you bet much more than will run into the problem of not having enough to make a good bluff on the river.

Just to be clear, I put the villain on top pair on the flop. A mediocre holding, not that he was on something really weak like 2nd or 3rd pair. The read was right on. I was thinking I could take it away from him on the turn if he led weakly or checked. When I picked up the extra outs I was happy to fire away.  Just wasn't the case. The way he called on the turn led me to believe he didn't have top pair top kicker or something of that nature. That was also the right read. I was thinking I could get him to lay it down. That was a bad read on my part. He put almost $50 into the pot with top pair and a dicey kicker and all of his time to finally call. He made a good call, but really didn't want to.

An overcard on the turn would have been much better for me. An A or K and I take it away from him. A Q or J and he would probably have raised me out of the pot or led the river. In both cases, I don't put any more money in. Oh well. Not everything works out as you'd hope.

I didn't have a specific read.  His delayed call on the turn confirmed my read and led me to believe that he might lay it down.  He surely wasn't in love with his hand.  As it turned out I was wrong and he didn't.  Big call, I thought.  I wouldn't have called off all my stack with QJo. 

Maybe I'm wrong there, though, and I lay down top pair too much in this sort of situation.  I wouldn't have led the flop with top pair, so the pot would likely have been smaller on the end.  Looking at it from the villains point of view, I lead on the flop and turn and get called and raised.  There's a flush draw on the board and cards that hit low holdings.  A bluff is a possibility, but there just aren't a whole lot of hands that aren't a bluff that QJ is in good shape against.  Hmmm…

I thought originally that the poster said they had a solid read, which is why I supported the idea of a bluff here.

It was a defensible line to take, in any event.