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4:03 pm November 3, 2007
| fishing
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I am having a problem with raise size when I likely
have the best hand but could easily be out drawn.
Example: NL 1/2 $200 max. Average stack size is 100 BB.
My stack is 50 BB. Opponents are average ( loose ) internet.
3 limpers, I am cutoff and raises 1 BB with Js Ts.
Big blind and 3 limpers call. Pot is 10 BB.
Flop is Jh 8d 3c. No big draws, but I fear any A K Q or
someone drawing to middle or bottom pair.
The Blind and 3 limpers all check and I plan to bet. My question
is how much. I usually bet the pot hoping to take down the
pot right there. If raised, then I’ll fold. Most of the time
I win the pot.
A smaller bet would risk less and frequently win the pot.
( On the internet I am amazed at how often people fold for
1 BB in a 10 BB pot ) A medium sized bet like 1/2 pot might
keep in loose opponents drawing to poor hands like middle pair.
What is usually best, big bet to take it now, medium bet to
usually take it but with less risk, or plan to keep in the loose
opponent.
Please, any thoughts on how best to think about this. Not this
specific hand, but the general case.
Thanks
Chuck
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4:13 am November 4, 2007
| Todd
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I don’t understand the 1BB raise. I think you want to raise 5 or 6 and scare away some of the limpers and try to get it heads up. You’re going to end up bluffing and stealing a lot with that sort of hand in position. That’s a lot easier to do heads up.
Now that your there, I think you either need to bet to pot or check behind. Betting less than, say, 3/4 of the pot isn’t going to get a lot of poeple to fold who have a piece. If you check, the board isn’t draw heavy so giving a card isn’t so bad. With weak top pairs, I think you can keep the pot small and induce some bluffs from second pair hands with a check.
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12:18 am November 5, 2007
| fishing
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You are right about the wimpy 1 BB raise. It is amazing though how many will fold for a tiny bet. But a bad raise regardless. You are also right about the flop options.
How do you make the decision when to check behind and when to raise? I am making the transition from limit where protecting your hand is so import, to a game where you can spoil your opponents pot odds with a bigger bet and implied odd. My difficulty is in understanding the thought process in deciding how to choose between trying to induce a bluff or bad call and when to take down the pot with a big bet. Both work in this case, but which is better and why? What is important when you think about this?
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4:42 am November 5, 2007
| Todd
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fishing said:
You are right about the wimpy 1 BB raise. It is amazing though how many will fold for a tiny bet. But a bad raise regardless. You are also right about the flop options.
How do you make the decision when to check behind and when to raise? I am making the transition from limit where protecting your hand is so import, to a game where you can spoil your opponents pot odds with a bigger bet and implied odd. My difficulty is in understanding the thought process in deciding how to choose between trying to induce a bluff or bad call and when to take down the pot with a big bet. Both work in this case, but which is better and why? What is important when you think about this?
I look at it as a balance between protecting your hand and protecting stacks. You’re sort of short in this hand, there are three limpers, and you have top pair. Right now, the things you are worried about are KJ and QJ. If you fire a bet and get raised, you are generally beat on that sort of board and can give it up. If you get called, you don’t really have enough left behind to move someone off top pair decent kicker. I also wouldn’t be worried about AKQ. Mostly just A’s. KJ and QJ already beat you and most people aren’t limp/calling with K8 or Q8.
On this board, I’d fire at the flop and likely fire again on the turn on any non-A. You’re short enough and the pot is big enough that firing on the turn will generally be profitable, I think. Given that you’re short, I would fire a full pot sized bet so that you can make anouther full pot sized bet on the turn and get things like JT and QJ to sometimes fold. I would be much happier with QJ here instead of JT, though.
As is often the case, though, the problem with this hand was preflop. In positon with a bunch of limpers, I’m going to make it $12 or $14 to go. If I get a caller, I’m going to stick about 3/4 of the pot in on the flop. Limp/callers are your friends. They fuel your poker profits. There is nothing sweeter than the limp/raise/call-flop-check/bet/fold line. This is even more true when they will call bigger pre-flop bets but are less likely to call big flop bets. Loose-pre/tighter-post is a terrific profile for an opponent to have if you have position. So let them be loose pre-flop and chip away.
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1:59 pm November 5, 2007
| HungryJ0e
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I agree with most of Todd’s analysis… the only difference is I would tend to bet less on the flop… I’d vary the size of the bet, against this many opponents 2/3 to a full sized bet, usually betting about 3/4…
Heads up with this ratty board if checked to I’d bet a bit more than half… anyone calling with middle pair, etc. is making a mistake to call and any top pair that had me out kicked would probably have bet out against me. The only time I’d make the larger 3/4 to pot sized bet in this case is in a tough game and I had no reads/patterns on my opponent. But if most of the players at the table are that tough, I’m looking for another game.
- HJ
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4:57 pm November 5, 2007
| Todd
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9:00 pm November 5, 2007
| fishing
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Thank you both for the thoughtful answers,they were
very valuable to me. The ideas are in use now and working.
I spent a lot of time thinking about it and looking at
hands. To test my understanding I did the following simple
math. Even if my estimates are way off, what you suggest
is clearly profitable. It’s also working in practice.
If I play 100 hands:
$450 50 OP all fold.
$230 25 OP calls preflop then folds to flop bet
$290 10 OP calls preflop, calls flop, folds turn
-$320 10 OP reraises flop, I fold.
-$238 5 OP calls both flop and turn raises and wins 70%
Note: TJ wins over KJ 16% of the time and Axo 80%
———
$412 Profit
Does this look about right?
Thanks again. Chuck
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8:04 pm November 7, 2007
| EGJ
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In this kind of situation, I’ve started making my bets smaller. A 1/2 pot should be more than sufficient. If they have one over, or even two, they don’t have odds to call. If they call with overcards, that’s just dandy. Making your bet only 1/2 pot lets you get off cheaper when you get raised and have to fold.
A tricky question is whether to fire a second time on the turn. Not sure about that.
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