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Am I ahead here enough to call?

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7:13 am
April 27, 2007


Todd

Member

posts 423

.50/1.00 NLHE

5 limpers to me in the BB with J8o (stack $270).  I check my option

Flop comes Js9s8x 

I check it

CO (stack $100) raises to $7.

BTN (stack $90) calls $7 (pot $19)

I raise to $30.

CO folds, BTN shoves.  ~$50 to me to call into a ~$130 pot.

I'm getting > 2-1.  I'm behind 88, 99, Q9, QT and T7.  I'm ahead of 89 and a myriad of draws.

88 and 99 aren't as likely.  Most times those hands raise on the draw heavy board.  So really, I'm worried about being behind QT and T7.  Does that sound about right?

I think the check-raise line was a bit of a mistake given the stack sizes (most were in the $100 range), but now that I'm here this feels like a grudging call.  Thoughts?

Finally, in retrospect, it seems like lead - 3-bet is a better raising line given the stacks out there.  Thoughts? 

Check-call, lead on a blank turn perhaps better yet.

3:07 pm
April 27, 2007


weasel97

Member

posts 48

As played, it's probably a begrudging call.

Let's look at it from the button's perspective.  They called the initial flop bet.  On this board, that's likely a draw, or a monster.  But what monsters are there?  A set?  A straight?  With the flush draw, those both seem like hands to be protected.  Especially with 2 other players.  (You didn't include any reads, so I'm going with not completely clueless).

So I would tend to weight draws a bit more heavily.  Then, seeing your raise, they may have viewed it as a good time for a semi-bluff, especially if they had the nut flush draw.  They had about the right stack size to fold any 1-pair hand, and certainly any draws that may currently be ahead (pair + gutshot, pair + OESD).  With a board that scary, they may even be able to fold 2 pair hands.

 And even if they can't get them to fold, they've got outs to the nuts.  (Their 9 outs would make a call at 2:1 correct, so why not push and get some fold equity).

All in all, I hate the C/R line here.  Betting wouldn't be bad.  At that point a big raise gives you info.  And I wouldn't hate calling either, and seeing what the turn brings.  At that point, a big bluff from a flush draw is a crazy move, not a decent move.

I think NLHTAP has a section on semi bluffing with draws, and when it's correct.  I think that your raise made it correct here.

4:08 pm
April 27, 2007


weasel97

Member

posts 48

The more I think about this, it seems either like a bet out or a check/call flop, with a slight preference to check/call.

The likelihood is that you're either a little ahead (if they're drawing), or you're way behind (straight).  Better to keep the pot small, and see what comes out on the turn.

From what I've seen, draws play very differently on the flop and turn rounds.  With 2 cards to come, hope is eternal.  With just one, not so much. 

1:23 am
April 28, 2007


Todd

Member

posts 423

Yeah, I agree.  Both lines are a lot better than check/raise.  I knew I was making a mistake the minute I raised and realized I set up the bet for the button.  Bump, set, spike.  Doh.

I'm not sure quite how much it would have changed the outcome.  The turn and river were blank.  I could have saved a few bucks in the end to his QT flopped straight.

9:43 am
April 28, 2007


Baggie Boy

Member

posts 42

 I feel that you are calling against a better hand here too often. I know there are only a few 'big hands' out there but the way the hand had panned out so far it seems as if it's one of those times more often than not. I'm not saying I could have folded (especially in the panic of online play) but I would have been surprised to see a draw.

I know this line of thinking is not in accordance with previous comments but I am going from my own experiences playing at these levels where the big push tends to be with the big hand.

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