Last night…
Finally there were three players left; I had 24,000 chips, Al had 26,000 chips, and Jimmy Ray Smith had the rest – approximately 10,000. I was sure I was going to come in at least second, but I intended to win. I think I am better than they are. Especially short handed.
I was dealt A-10 and was first to act. Three handed this is a huge hand, so I announced, “I’m all-in.” Al called immediately. He must have woke up with a hand. Jimmy Ray folded. At this stage of the game and among these players he could be calling with a wide range of hands: A-A K-K, Q-Q, J-J, 10-10 on down to about 5-5 and A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs on down to about Q-J. I have seen some call with worse than that! The only real calling hands in this situation, with the game on the line, should be A-A, K-K, Q-Q and perhaps A-Ks through A-Qs. Against any pair except A-A or 10-10 it would have been a race with approximately 52% for the pair to 48% for my A-10. Against anything else I’d hardly have been worse than 60% - 40% or 3-2.
So, I didn’t think it was the end of the world.
Then Al turned over A-A. How many good hands can a person have after having come to the final table with about 2,000 in chips?
Of course, I lost. And I have given the hand a lot of thought. I only broke one rule of poker that I can think of: Don’t get in a fight with the chip leader of the tournament because it can cost you all of your chips. But, on reflection, I really think I had to lose an awful lot of chips here, but was probably destined to get busted. I belive most pros on TV would have been busted here.
I am still thinking about the hand. I think the only realistic way I could have gotten away from the hand was if I had limped and Al had limped behind me trying to trap. Then, if I missed the flop – like I did in the game – and he made a pretty good bet of ¾ of the pot to a pot sized bet, assuming he was first to act, then perhaps I would have viewed the hand like having an A-K and missing the flop. If you miss with A-K or the A-10 below, then all you have are two high cards. In this situation I would have been able to get away from the hand.
What is the correct take on this hand?
Natcheztoo