When Do I Know I’m Awesome?
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It’s a common question that takes many forms. “How many hands do I have to play before I know I’m a winner?” That’s the most standard form of the question. “If I’ve won $12 per 100 hands for the last 10,000 hands, does that mean I can move up?” A little more aggressive.
Some people come from the other end of the spectrum. “How big a downswing can I have?” Or, “Does it mean I’m a loser if I haven’t won the last five times I’ve played?”
Others come from a slightly different direction. “How big a bankroll do I need to play my usual game?” Or the results-free, “When will I know I’m a good player?”
It’s a tough question to answer, and it’s one that haunts new and experienced players alike. I have an answer that has worked well for me, and for many other successful players I know. It may not be what you’d expect.
Most people want an easy answer. “If you win at least X dollars for Y hands, then you’re gold. Move to the Isle of Man, play 18 tables of $10-$20 at once, and start counting your money in the millions.” That’s just not the way it works.
I mean, that’s really not the way it works. I’d say that most aspiring players struggle with the psychology of the game more than anything else. Everyone can learn more or less what hands to raise preflop with. Everyone can figure out that this hand is good and that hand isn’t. And most people seem to be able to learn at least a fair bit of hand reading. But some people can never, ever get the torment of variance out of their heads.
As social a game as poker is, it’s also an extremely lonely one. You enjoy your wins and suffer your losses alone. No one knows how much you’ve won or lost today, this week, or this month. Even worse, no one cares. And I mean no one. Even your mom doesn’t care. When I play poker, my wife doesn’t care how I did. My friends don’t care. No one cares.
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Tags: moving-up, poker, poker-psychology, winrates
Fantastic article. Echoes a lot of things I have thought to myself, but never seen in print, in particular the part about poker being a lonely game. My interest in the game started through a friendly home game, but I was one of the only players who had enough interest in the game to actually read books and *think* about the game. I can’t really discuss anything beyond the most basic strategy with them because they either don’t understand or care, or they think they already know how to play “optimal” poker.
I don’t really post to forums much because I see so many posts from people pretending to be better than they are–and it can be hard to separate the truly good players from the ones who only think they are, unless you’re one of the truly good players (which I’m not, but aspire to be)…
The part about knowing when you can move up when you can win or lose and not care–I’ve never seen it put that way, but that also makes a lot of sense intuitively.
And finally, I couldn’t agree more when you say that the best players are humble. I have seen so many examples of players who think they know it all–but precisely because of that they never improve their game, because naturally, when they lose, it’s because of other people’s bad play (“I can’t believe you called me with that!”). I like to say poker is one of the few games where almost everybody thinks they’re better than they actually are.