Value Betting The River

Wow, that player with 9-5 must have been very new to the game!

@Pim Then again people call down with all sorts of weak hands when they are put under pressure, it can be really quite surprising. I think the philosophy is that if you are going to call an all-in with a good but not nut hand you are better off pushing yourself.

Ed,

I just read you post on value betting the river. While I buy your overall argument, the examples you use at the end to illustrate shoving on a scare card puzzle me. In your last example, you shoved your last $95 into a $221 pot and got called by 9-5? Who calls there? What hand could villain beat? You raised preflop and bet on every street. He is crushed by any ace, 10-10 through KK, any flush and any better 9. I just don’t get it. When you have a atrong made hand like a set and you push on a scare-card, it seems to me that the majority of calls only come from players who hit a mediocre flush. A blocking bet makes sense here, but a shove feels spew-ish. Am I crazy?

@Ben. Irony.. it was irony my comment. The point Tony makes is exactly what I mean.

Fair enough Pim, no offense meant. Good comment from Tony, although if you make a blocking bet and get raised do you really fold? What sized blocking bet can you make into a $221 pot and then get away from given the huge odds? If you have $100 left and the pot is $200 and you were sure you were ahead on the turn you are probably going to have to call an all in so you are better off shoving since A) when he has a worse hand you might stack him, B) he might fold a better hand C) if hew does have a better hand hes willing to call with he was probably going to shove with it anyway.
I susspose if he rivered two pair and you checked he might check also and you would save $100 but that would be a very small part of his range.

Reading this article has improved my game so much I can’t even believe it.

“The river brings the third heart. You know your opponent could easily have been drawing to the flush. Shove all-in anyway.”

Maybe I’m just playing devil’s advocate here, but I personally think check-calling in this spot when you are OOP can be more profitable against players you know to be aggressive.

I think the third heart really cuts down on the worse hands that will call you. In addition, no better hands are folding.

So by check-calling, you give your aggressive opponent the chance to bluff some of the hands that are folding to a bet. And since the board is scary, the majority of the second-best hands that get away by checking behind would have folded to a bet anyway. In addition, the villain might only bet 1/2 the remaining stacks with hands that beat you, allowing you to get to a cheaper showdown than when you shoved into a made flush.

Dan, to say no better hands are folding is wrong. For instance some people (but obviously not all) with AK here would fold. Thus you would be making money with a push all in. Likewise anybody with two pair or with a pocket pair who hits a set, but is willing to fold to a flush, you are also making money off that you wouldn’t have otherwise.