Sniffing Out Bluffs

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Your opponent – perhaps sensing weakness or perhaps taking leave of his senses – pushes out a huge bet and dares you to call. If he has the hand he’s supposed to have, you’re crushed. But you think something is amiss and decide that this is it. You’re going to take a stand. Just after you say “Call,” your opponent shakes his head and says, “You win,” as he tosses his cards into the muck.

Snapping off a big bluff is intensely gratifying. In fact, it’s so gratifying that many players seem to become addicted to it. Instead of giving their opponents credit for a hand and folding, every time they see a big bet they begin to think, “Maybe this is a bluff too. Maybe I can snap this one off. Wouldn’t that feel great?” And they talk themselves into a call.

Occasionally they do catch a bluff, but much more often, they run into the hand their opponent is supposed to have. Over time, the pots they win don’t make up for all the bets they lose. They turn into ATMs for their opponents, paying off hand after hand.

But you don’t have to suffer the same fate. There’s a science to sniffing out bluffs. You don’t have to call bets at random or even wait until you get that “feeling.” You can detect a lot of the most common bluffs by using deductive reasoning.

The key to bluff catching is to look at your opponent’s betting over the entire hand and to think of all the legitimate hands they could have that they would bet that way. If a number of perfectly reasonable holdings make sense for your opponent’s play, he’s probably got one of them and therefore he’s probably not bluffing.

But if the hands he would likely bet on the flop or turn don’t figure to be likely to bet the river, and yet he bets the river big anyway, it could be a bluff. A bluff is especially worth considering if the flop featured a number of drawing possibilities, none of which came in by the river. When the number of legitimately strong holdings is small, but the number of hands that could have stuck around but now are weak is large, then there’s a good chance your opponent is full of it.

Let’s look at two hands. You and your opponent start each hand with $500 in a $2-$5 blind game. I won’t tell you what your hand is because it doesn’t matter. Let’s assume it’s at least a pair so you can count on beating your opponent if you call and he’s bluffing.

Your opponent opens from four off the button for $20. The button calls, and you call in the big blind. The flop comes Q 8 6 . You check, the preflop raiser bets $50 into the $62 pot, the button folds, and you call. The turn is the J . You check, and your opponent bets $80 into the $162 pot. You call. The river is the 4 . You check, and your opponent bets $140 into the $322 pot.

Your opponent raised preflop, bet the flop into two players, and then bet the turn and river. He started out on the flop with a nearly pot-sized bet. On the turn he bet about half the pot. And on the river he bet a bit less than half the pot. There’s no possible flush on board by the river, but two straights are possible: T-9 and 7-5. Overall, however, this board is a relatively unthreatening one to a hand like pocket aces, two pair, or a set.

Your opponent appears to be trying to get value for a made hand. He doesn’t want to bet so much on the turn and river that it scares you off, but he does want to get paid. What hands would he play that way? Well, depending on his playing style, he might play that way with any hand approximately A-Q or stronger. Pocket kings or aces are consistent with the play, as are pocket queens, eights, or sixes for a flopped set. Also potentially consistent are pocket jacks for a turned set, or Q-J for a turned two pair. Even T-9 for the turned straight would make sense against an aggressive opponent. These hands are all plausible and fit your opponent’s play. He probably has one of them. Don’t be a hero. Just fold.

Now let’s look at a second hand. Two players limp in, and you make it $30 from the big blind. The first limper calls, and the second folds. The flop comes T 7 4 . You bet $45 into the $67 pot, and your opponent calls. The turn is the 8 . You check, and your opponent checks. The river is the 2 . You check, and your opponent bets $140 into the $157 pot.

What hands would your opponent bet so strongly on the river? Typically a big river bet like this one indicates a hand at least as strong as two pair. Let’s say that T-8, any set, and the straights J-9, 9-6, and 6-5 might all make a big bet like this one on the river.

But what are we to make of your opponent’s turn check? All of these strong hands were made by the turn. All of them are vulnerable to a possible flush, and two flush draws are on board. Furthermore, the set and two pair hands are also vulnerable to cards like jacks, nines, sixes, and fives that put a four-straight on board. One would expect most players to bet these hands on the turn, not check them.

So there’s an inconsistency. Your opponent is representing a strong hand on the river, but he would presumably have bet each of those hands on the turn. Furthermore, a number of weak hands make sense up until the river bet. A club flush draw makes sense. Even a hand like A-J makes sense. So the hands your opponent is representing don’t fit all of his actions, and he could have a wide array of weak hands that he might have decided to bluff with. This is a reasonable situation to try to snap off a bluff.

It’s not at all guaranteed to work out. Sometimes you’ll call and get shown a set of deuces. Sometimes you’ll find out that your opponent inexplicably decided to check one of those strong hands on the turn. But if you think your opponent is a bluffer and you want to try to snap him off, your chances are a lot better in the second hand than in the first one. If you understand and use this reasoning process, then over time your nose for bluffs will become a whole lot sharper.

[This article appeared originally in the July 30, 2008 issue (Vol. 21, No. 15) of Card Player.]

Tags: bluffing, bluffs, card player, catching bluffs, Hand Reading, no-limit-holdem, poker

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