Responding to Jim Brier
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This article was written in January 2005 for the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine in response to a series of articles in CardPlayer written by Jim Brier. You can read the first article of the series here. To read the other articles, click on the “Previous” link at the bottom of that page. There are six articles in all.
Rather than directly address Jim’s points, I’d like to discuss an error that many people tend to make when they think about poker. Then I’ll discuss how that error manifests itself in some of Jim’s arguments.
Ignoring Unlikely Events
I’m at my apartment. I agreed to meet someone at 7pm. When should I leave? This is an everyday problem that we all tackle. Usually I solve it by saying something like, “Well, I’ve made this trip dozens of times, and it usually takes me between 15 and 30 minutes to make the drive.” Then I decide how important it is to be punctual. If I am meeting an important business contact, I might leave 45 minutes early. If I am meeting a friend who is often tardy himself, I might leave only 15 minutes early.
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Tags: bluffing, cardplayer, ev, expectation, expected-value, jim-brier, limit-holdem, middle-pair, pocket-pair, poker, poker-books, raising-with-middle-pair, small-stakes-holdem, sshe, suited-hands, two-plus-two, twoplustwo
“But if you are absolutely sure that you don’t have the best hand, raising with middle pair becomes foolish…All the upside of raising comes during the relatively small percentage of the time you happen to have the best hand.”
I’m not sure I understand why it would be foolish. Even if you are certain the bettor has you beat, wouldn’t you still raise if the pot is large and multiway as in the SSH examples?
For instance, you have 87s in the big blind. Four players limp, and the small blind raises. You call as do the limpers. The flop is A73 rainbow, giving you only middle pair.
If the small blind bets, and you are absolutely certain he holds AK, wouldn’t the correct play still be to raise? You have five outs to win and the pot size justifies your call, but if you raise, the players behind you may fold thus increasing your chances. This would indicate that there are upsides to raising even when you don’t happen to have the best hand.