Playing No-Limit With A Plan

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“How should I play suited connectors preflop? Should I call raises with them?” People ask me questions like these all the time. Unfortunately, I can’t answer them without context. To get a good answer out of me, I’d have to ask a few questions of my own: How is the game playing? What are the stack sizes? Have any significant and memorable hands occurred recently? And so forth.

Then I’d have to ask the most important question: What are you trying to accomplish?

Most players decide on their plays without ever really thinking about what they’re trying to accomplish with the hand. They call with this hand. They raise with that one. Why? Because they think the hand is good enough to see a flop with. Or because they want to thin the field. Or just because.

Those reasons aren’t good enough if you want to win consistently. To make money at no-limit, you have to play with a plan. You have to anticipate the different ways that the hand could play out and encourage the favorable outcomes while avoiding the unfavorable ones.

Obviously poker is random, and a terrible card can ruin even the most promising situation. You can’t avoid the occasional tough spot or bad beat. But many players willingly wade into bad situation after bad situation because they don’t plan.

Consider this scenario. It’s a 10-handed $5-$10 game. You have $1,000 and everyone at the table has you covered. Three players limp, and then the cutoff raises to $80. You’re on the button with 7 6 . What should you do?

Many players would call automatically: They have a decent-looking hand and the button. That reasoning, however, reflects no planning whatsoever. You’ll likely have to make several decisions after the flop. Are those decisions likely to offer you favorable or unfavorable outcomes?

Let’s play through some potential scenarios:

Scenario 1. You call, the blinds fold, and the first limper reraises to $380. Everyone folds to you. Your hand is likely too weak to compete against your opponent’s range of hands, and you have to fold. If this scenario is reasonably likely, then you should fold the first time around rather than risk getting blown off your $80 investment.

Scenario 2. You call, the blinds fold, and all three limpers call. That makes the preflop pot $415, and you have $920 left in your stack. So you have somewhat more than twice the size of the pot remaining. If someone bets the pot (or close to it) on the flop, then you have to make an immediate decision for all your chips. It would be very rare that you’d want to call a $400 bet only to fold to an all-in $520 bet on the next round. Playing for the flop bet will effectively commit the rest of your chips.

Your first flop decision will also likely be your last one. You’ll either commit everything, or you’ll fold. Because of your weak relative position, acting directly after the preflop raiser, that flop decision will be excruciating.

For instance, say the flop comes Q 7 5 . The flop is checked to the preflop raiser who bets $300 into the $415 pot. You have to commit now, and you have no good information. Furthermore, you have four opponents, any of whom could have a hand. This scenario doesn’t give you an edge, and yet you’ll stumble into a situation like this one over and over again if you decide to see the flop. You can avoid it by folding preflop.

Scenario 3. You call, and everyone else folds. The preflop pot is $175 and you have $920 left. Your opponent is aggressive, and you expect him to bet the pot or close to it almost no matter the flop.

Once again you’re in a tricky situation. You’ll miss the flop frequently, so if you plan to fold every time you miss, then right off the bat you’re giving your opponent a large percentage of the pots. It’s unlikely you’ll be able to overcome that disadvantage to make the hand profitable overall.

To make the preflop call workable, you have to steal some of the pots. If your opponent raises limpers with some weak hands and therefore frequently flops nothing himself, you may be able to steal enough pots. If your opponent usually has a strong hand when he raises several limpers, then trying to steal from him is not going to work out.

In this scenario, calling is a dicey proposition that requires several things to go right for you: the limpers have to fold, your opponent has to have weak hands in his range, and the flop has to cooperate with your plan to steal by being sufficiently scary.

Scenario 4. Your entire table is very nitty, including the preflop raiser. You think the preflop raiser is making such a large raise because he’s nervous about his hand he wants everyone to fold. The table is tight enough that the limpers will indeed likely all fold. In this scenario, calling makes a lot of sense.

Your tight opponent will know that calling such a large raise suggests some strength, and he will fear that your hand is better than the hand he has (unless he happens to have pocket aces or kings). If you call, and the limpers fold (as predicted), then your opponent may tip his hand on the flop. Namely, he may make a big bet with a big pair, and he may make a small bet or check if he misses or otherwise doesn’t like his hand (9-9 on a Q-J-4 board, for instance). In that case, you call preflop with the intention of letting your opponent tip his hand on the flop, and reacting to it with precision.

So what are you trying to accomplish? Are you playing 7-6 suited because you want to flop a draw and win a big pot off your solid opponent? That’s a bad plan because the preflop raise is too large compared to the stack sizes. You’ll be all-in (or at least pot-committed) on the flop – before you hit your draw.

Are you playing 7-6 suited because it “plays well multiway” and this will be a multiway pot? Again, it’s no good here because you’ll be forced to commit too early in the hand.

Are you playing 7-6 suited because your opponents are nitty and you plan to call preflop and take the pot on the flop? If so, you might be on to something.

Plan your hands. Consider some likely scenarios, and decide if you like them. How will your hand play if the obvious happens? What are your “home run” scenarios, and how likely are they? If you do this, you’ll avoid playing on autopilot and you’ll make better and more profitable decisions.

[This article appeared in the October 22, 2008 issue (Vol. 21, No. 21) of Card Player.]

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