Moving Up: Beyond Winrate And Bankroll - Part 3: River Bluffing

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In Part 2 of Moving Up: Beyond Winrate And Bankroll, I discussed how the relative strength of your hand reading skills versus your opponents’ is a big factor in whether you’re ready to move up or not. The river betting round is the one that allows you to benefit most from sharp hand reading, so it’s a good place to examine when assessing your play.

Part 2 discussed river value betting decisions. This part talks about the other side of the coin – river bluffing decisions.

If you’re reading hands well, often you’ll have a good idea of whether your opponent’s hand range is dominated by strong hands or weak ones. As you play, do you actively attack your opponent’s weak hand ranges, and do you do it better than your opponents?

Using The River Card To Bluff

Most no-limit players, bad and good, bluff with some regularity. Bad players tend to bluff using a simple strategy, sometimes as simple as, “If you check the river, I’ll bet every time.” Better players allow their hand reading skills to inform their bluffing.

The first bluffing skill is to use river scare cards to make more successful bluffs. If a river card will have damaged the strength of many of your opponent’s hands, it may be a good time to try a bluff. But a scare card isn’t just any old card that may look scary. For instance, say your opponent checks and calls out of position on the flop and turn. The river brings the third flush card, and your opponent checks again. This is often not a good bluffing card, because of all the hands your opponent would have checked and called with on the flop and turn, a significant percentage of them will have been flush draws.

A true scare card is one that has one or more of the following properties:

1. Is likely to have damaged the hand strength of many of the hands in your opponent’s range.
2. Is likely to have improved many of the hands in the range your opponent could likely put you on.
3. Is relatively unlikely to have improved many of the hands in your opponent’s range.

Here are some basic examples. If your opponent’s range is dominated by one pair hands, perhaps top and middle pairs with some unimproved pocket pairs, then an overcard is likely a scare card because it damages the strength of that hand. An overcard is particularly a scare card if you raised preflop and maybe made a flop continuation bet. That’s because the card not only damages your opponent’s hand range, but it strengths yours because many of your unimproved overcard hands have now improved to top pair.

An overcard would be significantly less scary if, for instance, you flat-called preflop and checked and called after the flop. In that scenario, you would be less likely to hold unimproved overcards, and therefore an overcard would be less likely to improve your hand.

A total brick can also act as a scare card. For instance, if your opponent checks and calls you on a turn board of K T 8 6 and a river 2 comes off, the river card will actually be fairly scary for your opponent’s range. Why? Because much of his range is made up of drawing hands, possibly also including a pair: T9, 77, J T , etc. This river card severely damaged the strength of his range by missing nearly every possible hand he could hold.

This article isn’t meant to be a lesson on bluffing, but rather a diagnostic. Are you thinking about these things when you are contemplating your river bluffs? And are you actually pulling the trigger on these bluffs, or are you just thinking about them? How often do you check the river down only to lose to a small pair? Again, go through the hands in your database. Do you allow your out of position opponents to see a showdown often with small pocket pairs or flopped bottom pair? If so, you may not be bluffing accurately or using your hand reading well enough, and you may not be ready to move up.

Picking Off Bluffs

As I said above, most no-limit players bluff sometimes. Some bluffs are essentially impossible to pick off because your opponent’s range is strong enough compared to the hand you hold that your opponent won’t be bluffing often enough to make it worth your while to try to look him up.

But other bluffs are more clumsy, and you can pick them off using a little hand reading. Do you notice your opponents making clumsy river bluffs? Do you call them or rebluff them? And how do you perform in those situations.

One common situation for catching a bluff is when an opponent bets strongly on the flop, turn, and river, yet the turn and river cards both drastically affected the complexion of the hand. For instance, say the flop came K95 with two diamonds and a club. The turn is the 7 . The river is the 6 . Your opponent pounds all three streets.

It’s hard to imagine what hand your opponent could have that is strong on all three rounds. Obviously on the river any hand without an 8 in it isn’t that strong. Yet an 8 would be a relatively unlikely card in a holding that is strong enough to pound the flop and turn. Whenever your opponent bets in a way that requires him to hold an unlikely or nearly perfect hand for the turn and river cards, he’s often bluffing.

In a recent Stoxpoker video, coach Hunter Bick played a hand like this one and successfully bluff-raised the river when he noticed that his opponent’s play just didn’t add up.

Is your hand reading sharp enough to sniff out clumsy bluffs that don’t leave your opponent with a credibly strong hand range? And, conversely, are your opponents making hero calls against you when you’re bluffing? If you’re getting the better of the bluffing and bluff catching situations in your game, then you might be ready to move up.

Overall, I think a frank assessment of your hand reading skills is more predictive of your potential success moving up than your winrate is. And I think the river is the betting round where good hand reading skills shine the most. So if you are considering moving up, definitely pull up your database and review your river play. Do you see patterns or trends? Does it seem like you are outperforming your opponents? If so, and if your bankroll is in decent shape for the new level, then consider taking your shot.

Tags: 1-2-no-limit, bankroll, bluff catching, bluffing, comfort level, Hunter Bick, moving-up, no-limit-holdem, poker, snapping off bluffs, stoxpoker

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